lab276 Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Good weekend it looks like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 first trend was obviously too good to be true .. let's hope Sunday gets better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 8 hours ago, lab276 said: Good weekend it looks like? For holdovers it really is. Just the Gemini Man drop isn't great... I hope Joker can surprise next WE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 5, 2019 Author Share Posted October 5, 2019 (edited) Don't know why Joker should be a success, really don't see any target audience (quality of the film doesn't matter much in that respect) Edited October 5, 2019 by IndustriousAngel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted October 6, 2019 Share Posted October 6, 2019 11 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Don't know why Joker should be a success, really don't see any target audience (quality of the film doesn't matter much in that respect) Considering that it found a large audience everywhere even in places like Japan (where the market doesn't care about superhero movies outside of Spider-man and Avengers), I have a hard time believing it won't here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 6, 2019 Author Share Posted October 6, 2019 I hope so, the market sure needs some hits, I just can't see much interest atm but will be glad if proven wrong! final weekend estimates again a bit down for family releases; positive surprise could be the Bavarian comedy. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 8, 2019 Author Share Posted October 8, 2019 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Gemini Man 212.134 549 386 233.808 2.526.574 - 1 2 Shaun the Sheep 2 184.194 639 288 363.181 2.523.703 +40 2 3 Angry Birds 2 141.774 643 220 404.384 2.886.790 +37 3 4 Abominable 120.866 514 235 227.463 1.706.234 +45 2 5 It 2 115.393 537 215 1.738.809 17.596.965 -13 5 6 Downton Abbey 102.995 562 183 445.147 4.076.537 -4 3 7 Eine ganz heiße Nummer 2 76.344 244 313 85.857 715.662 - 1 8 The Lion King 72.550 443 164 5.379.078 49.615.170 +36 12 9 Rambo - Last Blood 65.620 450 146 341.877 3.062.751 -22 3 10 Systemsprenger 58.802 280 210 219.562 1.770.677 +24 3 11 Ad Astra 58.259 467 125 277.024 2.545.208 -20 3 12 Deutschstunde 56.238 127 443 60.658 536.523 - 1 13 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 51.880 389 133 1.777.144 17.535.485 +2 8 14 Gut gegen Nordwind 44.634 525 85 344.791 2.963.789 -12 4 15 The White Crow 34.169 131 261 82.976 712.319 +19 2 16 Paw Patrol 33.230 381 87 117.571 591.065 -61 2 17 Toy Story 4 31.046 370 84 816.753 6.092.988 +13 8 18 Good Boys 28.512 235 121 577.312 4.572.762 +6 7 19 Ugly Dolls 22.157 298 74 22.157 154.923 - 1 20 Ready or Not 21.306 233 91 75.602 603.354 -21 2 The weekend was ok, with the only wide opener Gemini Man doing a bit better than I expected and nice increases for family fare. Also a fine PTA for Eine ganz heiße Nummer 2.0; it seems to be the year of the Bavarian comedy! Next weekend: Joker should take the #1 spot; weather is predicted warmer so family releases will probably suffer. I have no idea how high Joker might go but if it doubles this week's opener I'll be satisfied. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 Hi, Joker: CineStar Bremen Still closed!! (After more than a month) Expected date of reopening: Early November. CinemaxX Bremen Preview on Wednesday 9thOctober 2019 2D: (T-1): OV 20:00: 226 / 232 (6 rows in the front row (special row -3 wheelchair seats) OV 20:15: 49 / 49 (Smallest room I track) 20:30: 249 / 342 23:10: 55 / 232 Total: 579 / 855 -> 67.7%!! BUT!: This might overperform cause the CineStar is closed and it’s the closest cinema to it (apart from some Arthouse ones and a small in a small city somewhat close) CineStar Metropolis Frankfurt Preview on Wednesday 9thOctober 2019 2D: (T-1): OV 20:00: 524 / 624 OV 23:00: 97 / 624 20:00: 347 / 642 23:00: 54 / 642 Total: 1022 / 2532 -> 40.4% Total: (T-1): Previews: XX + 579 + 1022 = 1601 Only calculating Previews with Previews numbers: Aladdin: 200 => 187k John Wick 3: 399 => 180k Godzilla: 125 => 250k Rocketman: 89 => 408k Dark Phoenix: 58 => 256k MIBI: 68 => 245k Spidey: 985 => 91k Tomorrow I will count the numbers for the weekend if I find the time. But quick look based on showing time. 2pm: Train wreck 5pm: Ouch 8pm: Blockbuster (shows >1/2 full or so for Thursday and Friday) 10+pm: Mmmh, not bad, but nothing great either. I think 60k previews + 400k weekend should be considered a success for a DC movie. Though the Spidey preview comp would suggest 90k previews which should lead to a 500+k weekend which would be rather big (6thbiggest this year), 400k would be 10thbiggest, I think. 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 I have a veeery good feeling about this movie now. Previews and bookings for tomorow seem to be great (according to the InsideKino forum, Joker http://www.forum.insidekino.de/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=4845 and SSquad http://www.forum.insidekino.de/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=2671&start=25) For example: SSquad: 3k Joker: 2,8k SSquad opened to 500k, so to top that is totally possible. I'm hyped to see it tomorow 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 (edited) Joker: Spoiler Wednesday 10thOctober 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) CinemaxX Bremen Wednesday Previews: OV 20:00: 226 / 232 OV 20:15: 49 / 49 20:30: 328 / 342 23:10: 101 / 232 Total: 704 / 855 -> 82.3%!! Thursday: 2D 14:30: 17 / 342 2D 17:00: 88 / 186 2D 20:30: 261 / 342 2D 22:30: 33 / 297 OV 2D 19:30: 162 / 297 OV 2D 23:00: 14 / 186 Total: 575 / 1650 -> 34.85% Friday: 2D 14:00: 0 / 342 2D 17:30: 40 / 342 2D 20:30: 216 / 342 2D 22:30: 51 / 297 OV 2D 19:30: 135 / 297 OV 2D 23:00: 13 / 186 Total: 455 / 1806 -> 25.19% Saturday: 2D 11:30: 0 / 85 2D 14:00: 4 / 342 2D 17:00: 49 / 186 2D 20:30: 154 / 297 2D 22:30: 27 / 342 OV 2D 20:00: 64 / 186 OV 2D 23:00: 5 / 186 Total: 303 / 1624 -> 18.66% Sunday: 2D 11:30: 0 / 85 2D 14:15: 15 / 342 2D 17:00: 23/ 186 2D 20:30: 87 / 342 2D 22:30: 0 / 297 OV 2D 19:30: 22 / 297 OV 2D 23:00: 0 / 186 Total: 147 / 1735 -> 8.47% Total: 1480 / 6815 -> 21.72% Total wP: 2184 / 7670 -> 28.47% Wednesday 10thOctober 2019 MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt Wednesday Previews: OV 20:00: 586 / 624 OV 23:00: 237 / 624 20:00: 430 / 642 23:00: 264 / 642 Total: 1517 / 2532 -> 59.9% Thursday: 2D 14:15: 13 / 344 2D 17:15: 112 / 344 2D 20:15: 389 / 642 2D 23:15: 50 / 642 OV 2D 14:00: 47 / 624 OV 2D 17:00: 99 / 624 OV 2D 20:00: 498 / 624 OV 2D 23:00: 37 / 624 Total: 1245 / 4468 -> 27.9% Friday: 2D 14:15: 13 / 642 2D 17:15: 59 / 642 2D 20:15: 329 / 642 2D 23:15: 56 / 642 OV 2D 14:00: 47 / 624 OV 2D 17:00: 99 / 624 OV 2D 20:00: 396 / 624 OV 2D 23:00: 40 / 624 Total: 1039 / 5064 -> 20.5% Saturday: 2D 14:15: 16 / 642 2D 17:15: 39 / 351 2D 20:15: 155 / 351 2D 23:15: 43 / 351 OV 2D 14:00: 34 / 624 OV 2D 17:00: 108 / 624 OV 2D 20:00: 289 / 624 OV 2D 23:00: 31 / 624 Total: 715 / 4191 -> 17.1% Sunday: 2D 14:15: 12 / 642 2D 17:15: 62 / 642 2D 20:15: 63 / 642 2D 23:15: 0 / 642 OV 2D 14:00: 27 / 624 OV 2D 17:00: 90 / 624 OV 2D 20:00: 84 / 624 OV 2D 23:00: 2 / 624 Total: 340 / 5064 -> 6.7% Total TFSS: 3339 / 18787 -> 17.77% Total PTFSS: 4856 / 21319 -> 22.78% (T-0): Previews: XX + 704 + 1517 = 2221 Th: XX + 575 + 1245 = 1820 Fri: XX + 455 + 1039 = 1494 Sat: XX + 303 + 715 = 1018 Sun: XX + 147 + 340 = 487 TFSS: XX + 1480 + 3339 = 4819 / 25602 -> 18.82% PTFSS: XX + 2184 + 4856 = 7040 / 28989 -> 24.29% Adjusted adm. (without CS Bremen) only TFSS: Wend (wo Previews): Aladdin: 339 => 4102k John Wick 3: 522 => 2633k Godzilla: 184 => 3677k Rocketman: 128 => 4479k Dark Phoenix: 236 => 2533k MIBI: 162 => 3352k Five Feet Apart: 59 => 8632k Spider-Man FFH: 1672 => 1251k TLK: 2142 => 2074k H&S: 625 => 3792k Hollywood: 1585 => 1335k TS4: 280 => 4101k It: 1880 => 1513k WOW The presales are way stronger than I expected. (In this list the different presales multis can be seen, Hollywood, It 2 and Spidey had the worst. TLK’s is surprisingly bad too and Five Feet Apart had an insane one. Shows that besides genre it’s also important how big the hype is. None the less are the preview numbers 2221 tickets at two theatres so big that I think previews alone should be close to 100k (I know that it starts in 690 theatres but not all have previews and the two I counted tend to – I think – overperform for superhero related movies and one is in the top 10 cinemas in Germany and the other should be somewhere around #30 or so) so thinking they together make up 2.2% or a little more is probably reasonable. (might be a higher share for previews). Even if I say that due to the hype the presale multi is worse than Spidey’s by quite a margin (let’s say presales multi is only half) that would still be 625k (+100k previews = 725k PTFSS). As the Cinemaxx might have overindexed a little due to the Cinestar Bremen still being closed none the less I am going to go with 625k for the true weekend* could obviously go both ways, comps suggest a way stronger opening or the hype and the press could make it come down from this high. Quick note at the end – previews might be overestimated – I have no idea how they behave. I find them the hardest to determine – I suck at predicting the rest but previews is always pure luck. *I really hope that after the weekend I can say damn, why didn’t I go with what I initially wrote (850k +100k). But right now I decide against it because I have no comps from movies with comparable hype and I think this might turn out to be really, really presales heavy. AND it's Germany... so it will disappoint. "disappoint" (obviously the best DC opening (540+k wouldn't be disappointing in any way). EDIT: The presales are also kinda spread out through the weekend - obviously really strong for Thursday and Friday but even Sunday is good. Edited October 9, 2019 by Taruseth 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 (edited) Awesome. I was sure Germany will be on board. Any chance for 1million admissions for OW? I see Mark@IK is predicting 725K. I hope it goes higher. Edited October 10, 2019 by keysersoze123 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: Awesome. I was sure Germany will be on board. Any chance for 1million admissions for OW? I see Mark@IK is predicting 725K. I hope it goes higher. I wouldn't expect 1M+ just yet - Joker would only be the 7th FSK16 (german counterpart of R rating) movie to get there, bigger than IT or TDK... Those are the 30 biggest OW for FSK16 (IT2 this year would be 31st with 590k). Joker should land anywhere among them: Admissions Theatres Average 1 1.788.781 1.124 1.591 Matrix Reloaded (2003) 2 1.353.030 739 1.831 Fifty Shades of Grey (2015) 3 1.318.961 893 1.477 Mission: Impossible 2 (2000) 4 1.165.253 835 1.396 JB: Tomorow never dies (1997) 5 1.070.139 713 1.501 I Am Legend (2008) 6 1.031.758 474 2.177 Terminator 2 (1991) 7 976.476 873 1.119 Terminator 3 (2003) 8 947.575 734 1.291 Matrix (1999) 9 937.213 660 1.420 IT (2017) 10 868.763 754 1.152 The Dark Knight (2008) 11 848.703 648 1.310 Scary Movie (2000) 12 847.752 1.069 794 Matrix Revolutions (2003) 13 847.356 712 1.190 Fifty Shades of Grey 2 (2017) 14 780.837 663 1.178 Scary Movie 2 (2001) 15 765.413 779 983 Bad Boys II (2003) 16 749.735 482 1.555 Django Unchained (2013) 17 749.059 826 907 Scream 3 (2000) 18 746.528 630 1.185 Ransom (1997) 19 745.709 602 1.239 300 (2007) 20 713.887 523 1.365 Deadpool (2016) 21 710.656 696 1.021 Gladiator (2000) 22 709.972 545 1.303 Ted (2012) 23 700.424 500 1.401 Die Hard with a vengeance (1995) 24 690.651 720 959 Live Free or Die Hard (2007) 25 689.727 695 992 Unbreakable (2000) 26 649.104 557 1.165 The Sixth Sense (1999) 27 633.153 814 778 End of Days (1999) 28 618.257 788 785 Gone on 60 seconds(2000) 29 602.597 725 831 Air Force One (1997) 30 601.566 794 758 Red Dragon(2002) http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekord16.htm 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 (edited) Terminator 2 with the biggest average! Edited October 10, 2019 by Omni Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Thursday: Joker 127k admissions. IT 2 did 147k. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 8 minutes ago, efialtes76 said: Thursday: Joker 127k admissions. IT 2 did 147k. Can it reach 725k weekend with that Thursday ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 25 minutes ago, RJ 95 said: Can it reach 725k weekend with that Thursday ? That seems very difficult (but I guess it has got a lot more early shows than It2 so might not be impossible) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Spice Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: That seems very difficult (but I guess it has got a lot more early shows than It2 so might not be impossible) Any sense of the WOM yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 hour ago, RJ 95 said: Can it reach 725k weekend with that Thursday ? On the true weekend highly unlikely, with previews still possible but right now I'd say it comes in slightly below that. 127k OD would mean that 1% of that was presales at the CS FRA. For Spidey it were 2/3% and for TLK (Wednesday) 0.6%. So a rather bad multi. 57 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: That seems very difficult (but I guess it has got a lot more early shows than It2 so might not be impossible) Yeah, apparently Warner Brothers demanded a 2 pm showing everywhere and from what I saw that happened everywhere and those shows are selling rather bad. Might be better on Saturday and Sunday. 32 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said: Any sense of the WOM yet? No, I'd say that its legs might not be too good. Movies almost never fail to get a 3x so it should get that at least (3x of the 4-day without previews), and from that point forward I have no idea. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 (edited) 41 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said: Any sense of the WOM yet? Good WOM at filmstarts (3.6 of 5) and overall very good WOM at moviepilot with some people saying that they expected more. But the majority liked it very much. Edit: That doesn't mean that Taruseth couldn't be right with being conservative about its legs. But I think the great results WW alone have caused a lot of curiosity. And a fine first weekend here will carry further that effect. Reservations for tomorrow at e.g. the mathäser look very good. It gets no less than 4 evenings shows (of course in the biggest cinema halls) which are already very crowded. The Friday in this theater is for sure good enough for 750k+ admissions but let's see how it develops over the weekend. The only thing that is a bit sad is that it crushes the other movies which get so few showtimes if at all... PS: Joker started in 690 theaters, a big number. Edited October 10, 2019 by el sid 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 (edited) Joker has a huge OD of 140k (€1,3M) and 100k in Wednesday previews!!! The other movies have big drops after the holiday last Thursday. Gemini Man 16k (-76%) Dem Horizont so nah 15,5k Shaun2 14,3k (-75%) Abominable 12,8k (No numbers last Thursday but they probably weren't higher than 30k so the drop is better than -60%) Dora 12k Edited October 11, 2019 by Aristis 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...