Poseidon Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Taruseth said: A:EG was 462k. 200k sounds really good, who had holiday apart from Saxony though? Like it should have a shot at a 1M 4-day opening and hopefully a total close to the first. Schools were off in Bavaria, but no official holiday. It was a normal workday for parents, Maybe something like 210k Wed 120k Thur 200k Fri 450k Sat 400k Sun Edited November 20, 2019 by Poseidon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 3 hours ago, Taruseth said: A:EG was 462k. 200k sounds really good, who had holiday apart from Saxony though? Like it should have a shot at a 1M 4-day opening and hopefully a total close to the first. Yeah, I changed it as soon as I saw what I did 😬 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 (edited) So, the InsideKino prediction is online and... crazy high. I really hope this might come true, but we should still be very cautious (he's known as optimistic): WE Cume 1 1.500.000 --- 1.725.000 7.000.000 1 Frozen 2 2 440.000 -25% 3.325.000 4.250.000 4 Das perfekte Geheimnis 3 90.000 -30% 295.000 600.000 2 Last Christmas 4 87.000 -40% 3.820.000 4.000.000 7 Joker 5 75.000 --- 75.000 200.000 1 Doctor Sleep http://www.insidekino.de/DProg/ProgNOV212019.htm So he thinks OD: 225k OW: 1,5M (4-day), 1,725M (5-day) Total: 7M This would be awesome! Edited November 21, 2019 by Aristis 3 4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 A nice admission increase will probably be common in the developed markets minus Japan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 let's just say a >1 million OW is looking very realistic and 5mil total are nearly a lock from there on with holiday season on the horizon. a 1.5mil OW makes even 6mil look possible. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: let's just say a >1 million OW is looking very realistic and 5mil total are nearly a lock from there on with holiday season on the horizon. a 1.5mil OW makes even 6mil look possible. Yeah, it's better not to get too excited too soon... The OD is indeed the 3rd biggest of the year with around 204k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Original was $48mn. With 7mn, it could be $80mn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said: Original was $48mn. With 7mn, it could be $80mn. Don't forget this is more a kids movie - Germany has high TP but not that high for kids. It'd probably be more like $60M to $63M. And this is a very early prediction without even knowing the WE. I think $50M would be a better target first... 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Huge start on day 1 for #Frozen2 ... possible life time adms could be 7 M 😮 😮 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Sunny Max said: Huge start on day 1 for #Frozen2 ... possible life time adms could be 7 M 😮 😮 numbers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Just now, Steven said: numbers? Day 1 AEG :- 462 K adms TLK :- 208 K adms Frozen II - 204K adms Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 11 hours ago, Jedi Jat said: Original was $48mn. With 7mn, it could be $80mn. nop, ER dropped (even compared to Frozen I quite a lot) and I wouldn't get to optimistic. For now I'd say an opening weekend slightly above TLK and a final total of the first would already be pretty great for it, considering most movies didn't perform that well this year and a lot of sequels dropped (apart from Endgame obviously). (And for that it would probably need 10% more admissions as animations have a lower ATP than live action movies.) For now I'd say: 1.05M 4-day 4.85M total would be nice (probably translates to $48M TP-increase and ER-drop equaling each other out). Obviously could see it getting higher, but I try to remain cautious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 (edited) Thursday Numbers: #1 Frozen 2 110k // €935k/$1,04M - 2-day total 315k / ~€2,68M / ~€2,97M #2 Geheimnis 43k (-31%) €375k/$415k #3 Last Christmas 12k (-11%) €100k/$110k #4 Joker 10k (-41%) €90k/$100k Edited November 22, 2019 by Aristis 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 (edited) 1st Trend: Frozen 1,245M (4-day), 1,45M (5-day) 4-day ~$11,7M, 5-day ~$13,7M This would be the 2nd biggest OW of the year (#1 A:EG 1,67M, #3rd Geheimnis 924k, #4th TLK 921k). Geheimnis 375k (-36%) 3,3M Joker 85k (-41%) 3,825M Last Christmas 85k (-34%/-50%) Le Mans 66 / FvF 65k (-30%/-41%) Edited November 22, 2019 by Aristis 6 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Aristis said: 1st Trend: Frozen 1,245M (4-day), 1,45M (5-day) Geheimnis 375k (-36%) 3,3M Joker 85k (-41%) 3,825M Last Christmas 85k (-34%/-50%) Le Mans 66 / FvF 65k (-30%/-41%) Is this good for more than $50M final? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, PKMLover said: Is this good for more than $50M final? $50M is a good target, probably needs around 4,5x multipler from 4-day OW. Animation often has great legs, this year for example Pets2 has 12,5x, AB2 over 7x and Abominable over 6x. And Minions (that opened on a very hot WE with 935k) got to 6,95M with 7,4x despite the big OW. So, if F2 isn't extremely frontloaded, 4,5x should be easy. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, Aristis said: $50M is a good target, probably needs around 4,5x multipler from 4-day OW. Animation often has great legs, this year for example Pets2 has 12,5x, AB2 over 7x and Abominable over 6x. And Minions (that opened on a very hot WE with 935k) got to 6,95M with 7,4x despite the big OW. So, if F2 isn't extremely frontloaded, 4,5x should be easy. What is the ceiling for it? 6x? 7x? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 (edited) 57 minutes ago, PKMLover said: What is the ceiling for it? 6x? 7x? A 6x and 7x would mean totals (multi is of the 4-day (which I will put at 1.2M)) of 7.2M/ 8.4M, that would be absolutely mind-blowing crazy, 7.2M would place it at #7 this decade and 8.4 as #3 (only behind TFA and Intouchables). I'd say we stay cautious and the target is above TLK (and maybe above 6.15M, so it would be the movies with the highest number of admissions since TFA back in 2015). And seriously Frozen 2 beating Endgame (5.13M) would be great already. Anything below 4M after such a promising looking OWend would be underwhelming though. Edited November 22, 2019 by Taruseth 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 with holiday season coming, I see 6mil total as a good goal and 7mil as a possibilty 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) So, the second trend is up at insidekino. Though the comment about Frozen 2 is basically ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Could be 1.85m 5-day if based on the multipliers of other animated movies, or it could be lower than expected due to the good weather or the question about capacities. For now that means: same trend as before. #1 Frozen 2: 1.45m (5-day) #2 Geheimnis: 375k #3 Last Christmas: 100k #4 Joker: 85k #5 Ford vs. Ferrari: 65k #6 Zombieland: 55k #7 Depeche Mode: 45k #8 Doctor Sleep: 45k #9 Recep Ivedik 6: 35k Edited November 23, 2019 by George Parr 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...