BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[George Parr]

The weather is certainly interesting right now. Storm-like winds in the south, a ton of rain in the west, snow in the north, risk of floods. Apparently that's supposed to change for the weekend, but if it stays that way it isn't going to help. Bad weather is good for theaters, but not this kind of bad weather.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Coco	154.157	620	249	392.229	3.247.471	-22	2
2	Paddington 2	108.269	763	142	591.468	4.044.300	-13	3
3	Mord on the Orient Express	83.778	704	119	1.037.782	9.165.046	-20	5
4	Fack Ju Göhte 3	75.449	662	114	5.770.778	50.391.862	-31	7
5	Daddy's Home 2	60.208	334	180	75.415	591.542	-	1
6	The Star	49.354	364	136	60.037	394.261	-	1
7	Justice League	40.675	500	81	590.101	6.199.588	-43	4
8	The Mountain Between Us	37.004	266	139	37.634	331.458	-	1
9	Bad Moms 2	35.042	449	78	732.189	6.253.988	-30	5
10	Aus dem Nichts	30.007	248	121	202.870	1.725.262	-33	3
11	Thor 3	26.483	297	89	1.435.378	15.778.198	-32	6
12	Happy Death Day	23.645	313	76	325.852	2.724.054	-41	4
13	Burg Schreckenstein 2	22.888	424	54	27.113	176.787	-	1
14	Ayla	22.645	44	515	22.645	216.760	-	1
15	Flatliners	20.461	310	66	85.315	672.727	-43	2
16	Girls Trip	19.642	288	68	79.670	660.608	-41	2
17	Augsburger Puppenkiste: Als der Weihnachtsmann …	14.720	423	35	28.051	162.516	+36	2
18	Madame	14.669	108	136	44.084	356.251	-19	2
19	Hexe Lilli rettet Weihnachten	12.418	528	24	229.616	1.482.060	-21	5
20	Aile Arasinda	10.176	59	172	10.176	98.849	-	1

Depressing weekend … let's look forward!

 

 

 

Next weekend: With big opener Star Wars 8, there's no question that business should be a little livelier next weekend - but how high can it go? It will be hard to live up to expectations, but in the end, SW8 should be the most successful 2017 release, it needs 6mil admissions for that goal and that should be easy. As to the opening - midnights at my theater are well booked (but only one sellout) as are the evening shows on Thursday … afternoon not so much. Frankly it doesn't look like a 2mil+ opener to me but that isn't necessary with holidays on the horizon. Few people expect it to hit SW7 numbers (9mil admissions) but 7-7,5mil would be a nice number, too, and that's where I think it will land.

Edited December 12, 2017 by IndustriousAngel

[Aristis]

I wanted to watch SW Friday or Saturday but I won't pay 15€ Will see it on Tuesday for 10€.

 

I hope I will not witness the slow death of German BO and anybody will have the will to change something.

[IndustriousAngel]

6 minutes ago, Aristis said:

I wanted to watch SW Friday or Saturday but I won't pay 15€ Will see it on Tuesday for 10€.

 

I hope I will not witness the slow death of German BO and anybody will have the will to change something.

I think you're not the only one - they never learn ... me, I don't know if I'll watch it on the big screen, felt a bit shortchanged after Ep7 (I liked Rogue One better).

[Aristis]

Sadly we'll probably not get estimates today, but early numbers seem to indicate something like 25%-drop for OD. So I'll say it should be above 1,6M admissions, anything below would be very disappointing...

 

Should become the 2nd biggest OW in gross with at least €18M (anything below €11,50 average TP for the WE would be a big surprise, could approach €12,00...)

 

1	€ 25.345.223	15	Star Wars VII
2	€ 17.733.509	15	Fack Ju Göhte 2 (local)
3	€ 16.666.356	01	Harry Potter 1
4	€ 16.636.145	12	007 - Skyfall	€ 18.502.953 incl. Previews
5	€ 16.590.492	15	007 - Spectre	€ 18.614.747 incl. Previews
6	€ 16.500.000	05	Harry Potter 4	Estimate, 5 day € 18.497.906
7	€ 16.175.918	02	Harry Potter 2
8	€ 15.402.670	17	Fack Ju Göhte 3 (local)
9	€ 14.940.428	11	Harry Potter 7-2	€ 18.557.983 in 5 days
10	€ 14.918.968	02	LOTR 2	€ 18.932.340 in 5 days

http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekordBO.htm

 

In december those movies starting are often leggy, so 1,6M would probably lead to 6M+.

 

[Poseidon]

OD looks to be down by 25-30% (in admission) compared to SW 7. That's what Hype can do, when it's just not there.

Edited December 15, 2017 by Poseidon

[UserHN]

2 hours ago, Poseidon said:

OD looks to be down by 25-30% (in admission) compared to SW 7. That's what Hype can do, when it's just not there.

That's a decent drop, if it will happen.

[Rthmessiah]

5 hours ago, Poseidon said:

OD looks to be down by 25-30% (in admission) compared to SW 7. That's what Hype can do, when it's just not there.

less should end up around down 18% in $lc and 20% in admits

[IndustriousAngel]

That is about the expected drop ... 6mil total however would be a serious disapppointment, 7mil should happen with holidays and (hopefully) good quality.

[George Parr]

First trend is up at insidekino:

 

#1 TLJ (duh) 1.75m (with a huge deal of uncertainty)

#2 Ferdinand 100k

#3 Coco 100k

#4 Paddington 2 70k

#5 Murder on the Orient Express 60k

#6 FjG3 55k (up to a  5.85m total now)

 

Exchange rates also work in favour of TLJ for once. Unlike with the Pound, the Euro is actually up against the Dollar compared to 2015.

[Poseidon]

1 hour ago, Rth Ragnarok said:

less should end up around down 18% in $lc and 20% in admits

Someone at insidekino said OD was just over 400k adm., so this must haven been too low, then. 

[el sid]

Yes, the Thursday estimates were not available and I didn't want to do too much speculation but the South-West-reports (also) showed close to 5/6 of the admissions of Star Wars 7.

And that were the Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

The bigger new releases:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 420k/6.024M US$ (released in 814 theaters, mostly good and very good reviews, SW 7 had 560k admissions OD but Mark_G from insidekino.de says if the actual trend holds it would be a minus of only 7% in dollars compared to SW 7 thanks to exchange rates)
Ferdinand: 7k (603, quite good reviews)

The holdovers (indeed good holds despite SW 8):

Coco: 6.7k (actuals last Thursday 9.5k)
Murder on the Orient Express: 7k (9.5k)
FJG 3: 6k (8k)

Edited December 15, 2017 by el sid

[el sid]

Because there were no Thursday estimates for two weeks, these are the Friday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

SW 8: 414k – so rather flat compared to yesterday which would be quite good
Murder on the Orient Express: 20.5k (nice)
FJG 3: 15.5k
Ferdinand: 4.5k (evening only)
Bad Moms 2: 8.5k
Daddy‘s Home 2: 8.5k
The Mountain Between Us: 7.5K
Aus dem Nichts: 5.5k
JL: 2.5k

Other reports are rather inconsistent for SW 8 but the two other bigger area reports also showed a quite good Friday for SW 8 with a little increase by 3% respectively 15% compared to yesterday.

Edited December 15, 2017 by el sid

[Rthmessiah]

5 hours ago, el sid said:

Because there were no Thursday estimates for two weeks, these are the Friday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

SW 8: 414k – so rather flat compared to yesterday which would be quite good
Murder on the Orient Express: 20.5k (nice)
FJG 3: 15.5k
Ferdinand: 4.5k (evening only)
Bad Moms 2: 8.5k
Daddy‘s Home 2: 8.5k
The Mountain Between Us: 7.5K
Aus dem Nichts: 5.5k
JL: 2.5k

Other reports are rather inconsistent for SW 8 but the two other bigger area reports also showed a quite good Friday for SW 8 with a little increase by 3% respectively 15% compared to yesterday.

Fri is loking to be similar drop TFA had over thu , 350k admits

[Giesi]

Saturday update: everything remains nearly the same, TLJ down 25k to 1,725M admissions, battle of the biggest OW‘s of year is gonna be close

[George Parr]

2nd trend is now up as well, with a slight decrease for the weekend:

 

#1 TLJ 1.725m

#2 Coco 100k

#3 Ferdinand 100k

#4 Paddington 2 70k

#5 Murder on the Orient Express 55k

#6 FjG3 50k

#7 Daddy's Home 2 40k

 

edit: a bit too slow

Edited December 16, 2017 by George Parr

[George Parr]

Looks like FjG3 will end up coming ahead in terms of admissions, as TLJ drops in the 3rd trend:

 

#1 TLJ 1.625m

#2 Coco 105k

#3 Ferdinand 100k

#4 Paddington 2 77.5k

#5 Murder on the Orient Express 57.5k

#6 FjG3 50k

#7 Daddy's Home 2 40k

[Brainbug]

Just now, George Parr said:

Looks like FjG3 will end up coming ahead in terms of admissions, as TLJ drops in the 3rd trend:

 

#1 TLJ 1.625m

#2 Coco 105k

#3 Ferdinand 100k

#4 Paddington 2 77.5k

#5 Murder on the Orient Express 57.5k

#6 FjG3 50k

#7 Daddy's Home 2 40k

 

I am so fucking ashamed of my country. We cant built an airport, we cant form a government and now a terrible comedy will come ahead of The Last Jedi.

 

Holiday legs to the rescue!

[Aristis]

Well, that's what I feared would happen... According to Rth SW8 had a similiar Fr drop to SW7 - SW7 WE multipler would get it to 1,6M. Shouln't further drop now...

Still, with fucking high TP this will probably get to €19,5M and $23M, so down about 15% in $.

 

With holidays this will get past FJG3, I'm sure - it's not like FJG3 had great legs. The Hobbit movies got more than 4,5x their OW. 4xOW would bring this to about 6,5M.

 

Coco -32%

Paddington -28%

Orient Express -32%

FJG3 -33%

[Giesi]

1 hour ago, Aristis said:

Well, that's what I feared would happen... According to Rth SW8 had a similiar Fr drop to SW7 - SW7 WE multipler would get it to 1,6M. Shouln't further drop now...

Yeah the pattern for huge blockbuster seems to:

initial numbers: really good

2nd trend: low drop/stagnation

3nd trend: big drop (50-100k)

early numbers: 25k-50k over the last trend, still under the very first numbers

 

so I would say 1,650-1,675M admissions for Ep8, bigger drop than I expected (based on the prequel trilogy) but the total is gonna be bigger than Ep2 and Ep3, easily

Edited December 17, 2017 by Giesi