BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Star Wars 8	848.989	820	1.035	4.392.646	52.197.756	+18	3
2	Dieses bescheuerte Herz	317.783	605	525	720.672	6.078.222	+99	2
3	Jumanji	314.078	542	579	796.677	7.775.709	+59	2
4	Pitch Perfect 3	203.456	497	409	519.581	4.342.279	+14	2
5	Ferdinand	153.860	682	226	448.238	3.265.215	+104	3
6	Coco	138.732	609	228	838.872	6.602.650	+110	5
7	Paddington 2	98.903	654	151	946.067	6.425.549	+65	6
8	Murder on the Orient Express	70.447	404	174	1.304.405	11.451.752	+111	8
9	Fack Ju Göhte 3	44.301	430	103	5.975.489	52.077.009	+60	10
10	Loving Vincent	32.550	100	326	43.574	348.919	-	1
11	Aus dem Nichts	20.634	159	130	298.813	2.497.102	+92	6
12	The Star	19.829	353	56	191.057	1.225.515	-39	4
13	Ayla	19.176	66	291	131.583	1.209.297	+7	4
14	Burg Schreckenstein 2	18.947	285	66	88.461	563.062	+121	4
15	The Mountain Between Us	17.438	169	103	123.816	1.046.292	+110	4
16	The Killing of a Sacred Deer	14.864	75	198	26.360	191.236	-	1
17	Otez-moi d'un doute	13.384	79	169	31.044	247.320	+93	2
18	Daddy's Home 2	13.002	264	49	186.315	1.456.065	+10	4
19	Laible und Frisch - Da goht dr Doig	12.498	45	278	16.088	120.943	-	1
20	Bad Moms 2	11.030	168	66	805.875	6.883.916	+26	8

 

Star Wars had a good weekend but other releases managed much stronger increases from the deflated christmas weekend … let's see how this plays out in the following weeks, at least WOM isn't bad. Loving Vincent was a surprise, good number despite the arthouse-only appeal. As expected, Dieses bescheuerte Herz and Jumanji went head-to-head for #2, both seem to be well-received. Honorable mention to Murder on the Orient Express which just keeps chugging along and Fack Ju Göhte 3 which has surpassed 6mil total by now.

Next weekend: Again, no big openers, the most interesting releases are probably Insidious 4 (might do ok with no competition in the horror market) and The Greatest Showman which gets some big screens but the previews were mostly empty … so next week's Top3 should look exactly the same as this week, the question is only how steep the drops will be.

[George Parr]

Last year almost everything in the top 10 dropped in the 40s, the only exception being Willkommen bei den Hartmanns with -34%. But that was with Passengers opening to 412k and Plötzlich Papa with 178k, something that isn't going to happen this time around, so maybe drops will be a bit better this time.

 

Maybe something like TLJ down in the low 40s, and most of the rest somewhere in the 30s, with the occasional 40% dropper as well?

 

 

[IndustriousAngel]

The way they're behaving to date, and without new releases, I can see <30% drops for DbH and Orient Express ... with family releases I don't know, there's something new coming but usually they show super holds over the holidays.

[el sid]

Some Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

The new releases:

The Greatest Showman: 36.5k (released in 489 theaters, mixed reviews between 4 and 9/10, on average they're quite good, first previews were already on Sunday)
Insidious – The Last Key: 46k (311, found only two reviews so far, both quite good, Insidious made 0.45M/1.85M OW/total US$ in Germany, Insidious 2 1.2M/3.65M and Insidious 3 0.55M/2.75M) – that number would be great and close to the admissions which Insidious 1 and 3 had over the whole weekend  , other reports looked promising too
The Leisure Seeker: 3.5k (114, mediocre, ok and good reviews)

The holdovers (no actuals available last Thursday but the holds don‘t look bad overall):

SW8: 91k
Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 53k
Jumanji: 41.5k
Pitch Perfect 3: 32k
MOTOE: 15k
Loving Vincent: 3.5k

Edited January 4, 2018 by el sid

[George Parr]

First trend is up, apart from TLJ pretty good holds all around:

 

#1 TLJ 425k

#2 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 300k

#3 Jumanji 250k

#4 Greatest Showman 175k

#5 Insidious 150k

#6 PP3 150k

#7 Ferdinand 140k

#8 Coco 120k

#9 Paddington 2 75k

 

[IndustriousAngel]

-50% for SW8, ugh ... DbH drops only 5% and Jumanji 20%, nice!! Showman not good but better than I feared after the empty previews. Indisious is good too!

[el sid]

And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

The new releases:

The Greatest Showman: 35k/361k US$
Insidious 4: 42k/440k US$ - nice and close to the OW of part 3 which had 57.415 admissions (source: wulfmansworld.com)
The Leisure Seeker: 6k/60k US$ -> 32.5k OW predicted in the first trend, a little bit over the expectations

The holdovers:

SW8: 105k
Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 65k
Jumanji: 59k (much better than estimated yesterday, definitely a walk up film)
Pitch Perfect 3: 38k

Edited January 5, 2018 by el sid

[George Parr]

Minor correction for the first trend:

 

Greatest Showman is now at 190k instead of 175k

 

Mark G. wrote that he had to make two minor corrections for the trend, I can only find one difference though. Maybe the second one wasn't about a weekend-number but a total or the time a movie moved past 1m.

[IndustriousAngel]

Most estimates went up a bit, sadly not SW8

[Taruseth]

Third InsideKino Trend:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 450K (-47%) (Total: 5.18M Admissions) I had hopes for a better hold, at least it is up a bit from the other trends.

Dieses bescherte Herz: 300K (-6%)

Jumanji: 300k (-5%)

Greatest Showman: 200K 

Insidious - The Last Key: 185!K (The First Trend was 150K) 

(Totals of the other Insidious Movies: Insidious: 181,691 (OW: 39,507); Insidious 2: 342,988 (OW: 104,106) , Insidious 3: 308.048 (OW: 57,415 (That seems really low)))

Pitch Perfect 3: 150K (-26%)

Ferdinand: 140K (-9%)

Coco: 130K (-6%)

Paddington: 75K (-24%)

Murder on the Orient Express: 52.5K (-26%)

The Leisure Seeker: 40K 

Loving Vincent: 37.5K (+23%)

Fack Ju Göhte 3: 27.5K (-38%) (Total 6.030M Admissions)

 

Edited January 7, 2018 by Taruseth

[George Parr]

I was kind of expection TLJ to rise a bit. With a 105k Thursday, it basically would have needed to run flat for all four days to get to 425k, and I don't think the holiday effect on Thursday+Friday is big enough to really accomplish that.

 

Very impressive by Jumanji btw. Rising 50k from the first trend to now, that's a ton at that level.

[el sid]

2 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Third InsideKino Trend:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 450K (-47%) (Total: 5.18M Admissions) I had hopes for a better hold, at least it is up a bit from the other trends.

Dieses bescherte Herz: 300K (-6%)

Jumanji: 300k (-5%)

Greatest Showman: 200K 

Insidious - The Last Key: 185!K (The First Trend was 150K) 

(Totals of the other Insidious Movies: Insidious: 181,691 (OW: 39,507); Insidious 2: 342,988 (OW: 104,106) , Insidious 3: 308.048 (OW: 57,415 (That seems really low)))

Pitch Perfect 3: 150K (-26%)

Ferdinand: 140K (-9%)

Coco: 130K (-6%)

Paddington: 75K (-24%)

Murder on the Orient Express: 52.5K (-26%)

The Leisure Seeker: 40K 

Loving Vincent: 37.5K (+23%)

Fack Ju Göhte 3: 27.5K (-38%) (Total 6.030M Admissions)

 

Yes, I was wondering too. But its hold on the next weekend was great, only -2,9%, probably because the summer holidays started in some states. I guess people waited for the holidays or they helped a lot regarding the legs.

PS: Nice third trend!

[George Parr]

41 minutes ago, el sid said:

Yes, I was wondering too. But its hold on the next weekend was great, only -2,9%, probably because the summer holidays started in some states. I guess people waited for the holidays or they helped a lot regarding the legs.

PS: Nice third trend!

I think it had more to do with the weather. Looking at some recordings, early July had an extreme heatwave, setting a new German temperature record. You basically had an extremely hot southern part of the country, while thunderstorms were hitting other parts of the country.

 

Apart from Insidious, all movies rose on the next weekend, making it very likely that this was caused by some sort of external effect.

Edited January 7, 2018 by George Parr

[titanic2187]

4 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Third InsideKino Trend:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 450K (-47%) (Total: 5.18M Admissions) I had hopes for a better hold, at least it is up a bit from the other trends.

Dieses bescherte Herz: 300K (-6%)

Jumanji: 300k (-5%)

Greatest Showman: 200K 

Insidious - The Last Key: 185!K (The First Trend was 150K) 

(Totals of the other Insidious Movies: Insidious: 181,691 (OW: 39,507); Insidious 2: 342,988 (OW: 104,106) , Insidious 3: 308.048 (OW: 57,415 (That seems really low)))

Pitch Perfect 3: 150K (-26%)

Ferdinand: 140K (-9%)

Coco: 130K (-6%)

Paddington: 75K (-24%)

Murder on the Orient Express: 52.5K (-26%)

The Leisure Seeker: 40K 

Loving Vincent: 37.5K (+23%)

Fack Ju Göhte 3: 27.5K (-38%) (Total 6.030M Admissions)

 

so, TLJ will still passes fack ju 3 for 2017's # 1 after all.....

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

so, TLJ will still passes fack ju 3 for 2017's # 1 after all.....

 

In admissions yes, and thank god for that. In dollars, it has already surpassed it.

[George Parr]

Will it though?

 

After this weekend, TLJ should stand at 5.18m admissions or so, FjG3 was at 5.22m at the same point. While TLJ is currently having better weekends, it doesn't have the advantage of getting a boost the rest of its run the way FjG3 just got over christmas. FjG3 should finish with around 6.1m admissions, and that's pretty much the area TLJ might land at as well. I don't think this is quite decided just yet.

[Giesi]

Is it really 100% set in stone that TLJ will overtake FJG3? TFA only added around 1,25M admissions after a way bigger 4th weekend.

[Brainbug]

NO, no WHY do you have to say that?

 

I really hope TLJ overtakes FJG3 in admissions. For the sake of our country

[jb007]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

NO, no WHY do you have to say that?

 

I really hope TLJ overtakes FJG3 in admissions. For the sake of our country

[IndustriousAngel]

It seems this is going to be a much closer race for the 2017 crown than expected ... the projected 6,5mil admissions don't look likely at all with the current weekend (and let's not forget that this is an excellent weekend for other releases - some increases and mostly minimal drops - so no excuses here)