IndustriousAngel Posted July 15, 2016 Author Share Posted July 15, 2016 First estimates for Germany's weekend on insidekino.de: #1: ID2 - 525k admissions (below my expectations) #2: IA5 - 400k (+40%, at last some relief) #3: MBY - 225k (+50% !!! seems like a real crowdpleaser) #4: Smaragdgrün - 90k (-20%, not a good sign) #5: ToniErdmann - 75k (wow, surprise opening for the arthouse dramedy!) Street Dance: New York opened below my expectations, too - estimate is 45k for the weekend. Overall, after many dreadful weekends, an overall good one! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 If that Trend holds - and IA5 reaches 400k admissions over the weekend - it could have about 1.475k (According to MarkG). In this case 2M is assured. Maybe even 2.5M is possible but we should wait for actuals. And if MbY reaches the predicted mark, too, it could reach 1.475M as IA5 does. Maybe 2M admissions in play? At last there's a silver lining now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said: First estimates for Germany's weekend on insidekino.de: #1: ID2 - 525k admissions (below my expectations) #2: IA5 - 400k (+40%, at last some relief) #3: MBY - 225k (+50% !!! seems like a real crowdpleaser) #4: Smaragdgrün - 90k (-20%, not a good sign) #5: ToniErdmann - 75k (wow, surprise opening for the arthouse dramedy!) Street Dance: New York opened below my expectations, too - estimate is 45k for the weekend. Overall, after many dreadful weekends, an overall good one! Wow, MBY is so huge in Germany. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RthDeadWov Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 17 hours ago, James said: Wow, MBY is so huge in Germany. already at 1/2 that admit figure with 2 days 2 go, 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 16, 2016 Author Share Posted July 16, 2016 3 hours ago, Rth said: already at 1/2 that admit figure with 2 days 2 go, well, Germany does count Thursday towards its weekend ... which makes sense somehow since it's the traditiobal opening day, but makes comparison hard (here in Austria, they count the three-day-weekend) 2nd trend looks less strong btw: #1: ID2 - 450k admissions (WAY below my expectations) #2: IA5 - 400k (+40%, at last some relief) #3: MBY - 200k (+30%) #4: Smaragdgrün - 75k (-35%, ouch) #5: ToniErdmann - 75k 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 Wow at IA5 End of the Euro Cup effect? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 Bad for Independence Day and Smaragdgrün... Great for the rest of the Top 5. For the rest: CI drops about 6% (65k) and Conjuring about 10% (45k). With about 600k C2 should be already a third above C1 (453k) and it's still playing - great for that movie. Hopefully Holiday will bring back the light to German Box Office (espescially the start of Pets could be promising and - hopefully - won't be another disappointment) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 (edited) 3rd Trend: ID4 up at 475k. Down: IA5 375 (+31%), MbY 175k (+15%). The rest stays about the same. Edited July 17, 2016 by Aristis 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HH84 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 The estimates look a little better for ID4 2: ID4 2 - 515k incl. previews IA5 - 377,5k MBY - 192,5k Smaragdgrün - 85k Toni Erdmann - 77,5k incl. previews CI - 67,5k C2 - 47,5k 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 19, 2016 Author Share Posted July 19, 2016 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Independence Day 2 463.664 744 623 514.546 5.731.700 - 1 2 Ice Age 5 377.884 826 457 1.455.287 12.001.640 +32 3 3 Me Before You 192.385 688 280 1.450.401 11.455.954 +27 4 4 Smaragdgrün 84.083 503 167 290.648 2.249.102 -25 2 5 Toni Erdmann 71.958 96 750 80.639 757.601 - 1 6 Central Intelligence 67.691 388 174 755.007 6.072.071 -2 5 7 Conjuring 2 46.263 420 110 609.039 5.443.874 -8 5 8 Mullewapp 38.117 522 73 41.647 274.800 - 1 9 Streetdance - New York 34.891 292 119 41.085 307.988 - 1 10 La Vache 16.815 125 135 29.916 198.541 - 1 11 Our Kind of Traitor 12.567 194 65 64.097 475.223 -26 2 12 Alice 2 10.994 266 41 795.222 7.452.820 -18 8 13 Angry Birds 9.322 327 29 1.411.229 10.507.426 +1 10 14 Warcraft 9.260 203 46 1.224.353 13.880.855 -36 8 15 Vor der Morgenröte 8.817 166 53 167.780 1.268.037 +19 7 16 Lou Andreas-Salomé 7.402 67 110 36.409 271.027 +5 3 17 Money Monster 6.085 97 63 439.374 3.626.960 -2 8 18 Le gout des merveilles 5.357 57 94 568.713 4.151.125 +55 19 19 Bastille Day 5.282 151 35 106.289 773.036 -31 4 20 The Meddler 4.923 113 44 20.039 122.169 - 1 A good weekend even if ID2 couldn't deliver. Otoh, domestic dramedy Toni Erdmann did better than expected. A lot of increases across the chart, with french longrunner LGDM on #18 setting ist sights towards 600k total! IA5 had a healthy increase, too - 1,45mil admissions total after week 3 are still a disappointment, but at least it'll cross 2mil now (probably 2,5mil in the end). Warcraft's hard drop against many increases indicates that it has reached the end of its run, however 1,2mil total are already better than expected. Next weekend: BFG and ST3 are the wide openers - the third Trek movie should open to #1 and hopefully do about what ID2 did this weekend. BFG is hard to estimate, no real rush factor here and IA5 seems popular with the kids so I guess it will go largely unnoticed despite some good reviews. Concerning totals - the open air season has started and we might see some longrunners back in the charts. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Finally Zootopia left the TOP20 after 19 weeks. Amazing result! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 InsideKino 2 Min STAR WARS - DAS ERWACHEN DER MACHT hat mit 9.000.047 Star Wars crossed 9M admissions! 2nd to do so this decade! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 2 hours ago, Aristis said: InsideKino 2 Min STAR WARS - DAS ERWACHEN DER MACHT hat mit 9.000.047 Star Wars crossed 9M admissions! 2nd to do so this decade! Do you think TFA can overtake Intouchables with some forthcoming re-releases? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 5 hours ago, Aristis said: InsideKino 2 Min STAR WARS - DAS ERWACHEN DER MACHT hat mit 9.000.047 Star Wars crossed 9M admissions! 2nd to do so this decade! what? TFA coming back? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 (edited) 4 hours ago, Giesi said: Do you think TFA can overtake Intouchables with some forthcoming re-releases? For now that would be 140k admissions. It seems the first Hobbit made 80k with its two Double-Feature re-releases, the second made more than 90k in one. I try to calculate that with the difference between the numbers in the Rekordejagd and the yearly chart: http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBORekordejagd12.htm (6.560.480) http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/D2012.htm (6.642.047) I really don't know if that works though. Is there a way to find out exact numbers of admissions for re-releases? But if it's right with such double features alone it could work (especially if you think of the plenty of SW movies that will be made - I read that Disney could publish one each year as long as thea are successfull, which would be many occasions to get 140k admissions more) And if it comes to a real re-release: SW Ep1 made 917.454 admissions in its 2012 3D re-release. But is it probable that such a re-release will occur soon? TFA is already 3D and for TPM it needed 13 years to get a re-release (while I don't think Disney will wait that long ) I think if Intouchables doesn't get a re-release (who knows...) it's more probable than not that SW will rank first (or at least in front of Intouchables). When? Maybe with Ep8, maybe in 10 years. Edited July 20, 2016 by Aristis 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Am curious about what Pets and Suicide Squad will do here. I went to insidekino website and saw they are predicting 5m viewers for Pets (strangely they predicted only 4 for Ice Age which sounds weird) so I don't know how their predictions are on point usually. I also couldn't find what they are predicting for Squad.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, MinaTakla said: Am curious about what Pets and Suicide Squad will do here. I went to insidekino website and saw they are predicting 5m viewers for Pets (strangely they predicted only 4 for Ice Age which sounds weird) so I don't know how their predictions are on point usually. I also couldn't find what they are predicting for Squad.. Mark is one of the experts on DE BO. he has been doing it like for ever. if Suicide Squad behaves like SH movie it wont do well. But like Deadpool if it behaves like an action movie then there is bigger potential. But let us wait for reviews before judging its potential OS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 (edited) 1st Trend: Better than predicted weather influences the weekend. Star Trek 375k IA5 275k (-27%, would be a good hold, especially as a family movie) ID 225k (-52% without, -56% with previews) MbY 110k (-43%) BFG 80k 1st ST: 422k (688 cinemas) 2nd ST: 447k (627) 3rd: 375k (557)/ down 11% from the first and 16% from the second Edited July 22, 2016 by Aristis 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Wow, that's horrible for BFG, I can't wait for Spielberg's comeback with Ready Player One and Indy 5! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 (edited) That's rather poor for ST3 ... seems releasing it that close to ID2 was bad for both. Never felt any buzz for BFG, just good reviews and that's not enough for a family film (Road Dahl was never an easy sell here, either) IA5 seems to have found its stride, not a blockbuster like prior entries but a steady seller. If it were not for "Pets" opening next weekend, I'd say even 3mil total were still in play. As witnessed by MBY's steep drop, the weekend seems depressed overall, so hopefully next week's drops will be softer! Edited July 22, 2016 by IndustriousAngel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...