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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

By IndustriousAngel, in International Box Office

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)

The Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum (school holidays in every state but too nice weather):
 

New Releases:
War for the Planet of the Apes: 57.5k (released in 614 theaters, very good reviews – better than for #2) - that number would be ca. on par with the Dunkirk actual number last Thursday. But I don't have much hope that the film will do better than IndustriousAngel estimated on Tuesday (250k) and IMO it could open even lower. The reservations looked terrible at the theaters where I looked at but maybe WOM will help or it's more of a walk up film.
The Emoji Movie: 3k evening only, the afternoon seemed to be much better (475, several very bad and two mediocre reviews)
Alibi.com: 4k (305, mediocre reviews)
How could I forget it: Grießnockerlaffäre: 24.5k - a very decent start in only 150 theaters mostly in the South, the next book adaption in the series of crime novels with local color of Rita Falk
Die göttliche Ordnung: 3.5k (100, mixed reviews between 4 and 8/10)

Holdovers:
DM 3: 14.5k evening only (actuals last Thursday 80k whole day, 22.5k evening only) - looks like it will have another good hold
Dunkirk: 33k (51k) - that number would be ok but it was the only film which was massively overestimated last Thursday
Valerian: 24k (40k) - pretty ok again
Baby Driver: 14k (20k) - good WOM kicking in?
Das Pubertier: 12k (15.5k estimated)
Wish Upon: 3k (7k)
The Party: 2.5k (6k)

Edited by el sid
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IndustriousAngel Blockbuster

IndustriousAngel

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Better drops than feared and with the wide selection of new releases (last weekend and this) it's possible that we may see 7 >100k movies!

 

drops for holdovers with Fri estimates:

 

DM 3: -22% (really good against Emoji)

Ostwind 3: -34% (not as bad as expected)

Dunkirk: -37% (more frontloaded than ostwind 3? give me a break, hope that number goes up)

Valerian: -30% (again, very good hold, excellent WOM it seems or a poorely marketed opening)

 

I doubt if Grießnockerlaffäre will really hit 100k, that would be a fantastic PTA, bur the franchise is obviously very alive in its 4th installment! (Saw it yesterday, ok movie and it doesn't slide into self-spoof territory as I feared after parts 2 and 3 got rather sillier at times).

Planet of the Apes 3 will have problems to reach 1mil total, despite good reviews - maybe the market is too crowded at the moment, or it is (like Dunkirk) a bit too serious or depressing for a summer release.

And Emoji doing a 175k OW - not bad at all, after the poisonous buzz and reviews it got I thought more like 100k, so a positive surprise (from the theaters POV)

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

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1 hour ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

Baby?

Yes, you have to be patient till tomorrow ;). But the estimates yesterday were - which is not always the case - pretty close to the actuals so I guess Baby Driver is no exception. Plus the weather is also predicted to become worse than said a few days before so I hope the hold is better than -40%. The "worst" film reported in the first trend has 100k admissions so BD will probably come in under 100k admissions but that's all we have so far.

 

Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:
Apes 3: 45k - still better than I feared
The Emoji Movie: 35k
Grießnockerlaffäre: 22k 
Alibi.com: 5.5k
Die göttliche Ordnung: 3.2k

Holdovers:
DM 3: 50k (actuals last Thursday 80k)
Ostwind 3: 35k (76k)  -  the poor evening number yesterday (not even 2k admissions) was already no good sign
Valerian: 25k (40k)

 

 

Edited by el sid
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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

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6 hours ago, el sid said:

Yes, you have to be patient till tomorrow ;). But the estimates yesterday were - which is not always the case - pretty close to the actuals so I guess Baby Driver is no exception. Plus the weather is also predicted to become worse than said a few days before so I hope the hold is better than -40%. The "worst" film reported in the first trend has 100k admissions so BD will probably come in under 100k admissions but that's all we have so far.

 

Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:
Apes 3: 45k - still better than I feared
The Emoji Movie: 35k
Grießnockerlaffäre: 22k 
Alibi.com: 5.5k
Die göttliche Ordnung: 3.2k

Holdovers:
DM 3: 50k (actuals last Thursday 80k)
Ostwind 3: 35k (76k)  -  the poor evening number yesterday (not even 2k admissions) was already no good sign
Valerian: 25k (40k)

 

 

 

 

Pirates please 

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

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34 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Pirates please 

We would if we could. No indications so far. Maybe it will be mentioned in the second trend tomorrow if it stays around 20-25k admissions. Some big theater chains have canceled the film by now but in most it still gets one show/day.

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George Parr Box Office Gold

George Parr

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2nd trend is up:

 

#1 DM3 240k

#2 Planet of the Apes 225k

#3 Emoji 175k

#4 Ostwind 3 125k

#5 Dunkirk 125k

#6 Valerian 125k

#7 Grießnockerlaffäre 100k

#8 Das Pubertier 65k

#9 Baby Driver 60k

#10 Spiderman 50k

 

POTC wasn't mentioned, will have to wait until after the weekend to see how it did

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IndustriousAngel Blockbuster

IndustriousAngel

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Saturday estimates - down down down is the motto :(

 

#1: DM3 - 240k (-25%)

#2: PotA3 - 225k (1mil total looking difficult, Apes2 opened to 400k)

#3: Emoji - 175k

#4/5/6: 125k each for Dunkirk (-37%), Ostwind3 (-45%) and Valerian (-27%)

#7: Grießnockerl - 100k

#8: Pubertier - 65k (-13%)

#9: BabyDriver - 60k (-35%)

#10: SM:H - 50k (-51%)

Alibi.com opens to about 50k including some previews

Edited by IndustriousAngel
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IndustriousAngel Blockbuster

IndustriousAngel

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3 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Valerian, the only movie that is up against the first Trend :) That's great. Is Germany the only market where this movie has good WOM?

Yep. might happen that it stays on #4 despite three strong new releases! Still a disappointing total (Fifth Element was >3mil total - ok, that was another time and the SciFi / summer blockbuster market was not as saturated as today, but still ...).

I rather don't understand why wom isn't as good elsewhere, I really liked it (8/10), saw it twice and think it's perfect summer popcorn stuff, but then I'm a SciFi geek and loved the comics so what do I know ...

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marveldcfox Box Office Gold

marveldcfox

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9 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Yep. might happen that it stays on #4 despite three strong new releases! Still a disappointing total (Fifth Element was >3mil total - ok, that was another time and the SciFi / summer blockbuster market was not as saturated as today, but still ...).

I rather don't understand why wom isn't as good elsewhere, I really liked it (8/10), saw it twice and think it's perfect summer popcorn stuff, but then I'm a SciFi geek and loved the comics so what do I know ...

people are idiots. They are a bunch of sheeps who blindly follow what is being made to believe!

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Aristis Box Office Gold

Aristis

Posted
Posted (edited)

Most releases down with the 3rd Trend...

 

DM3 225k (-30%)

Apes3 225 (stable, which is a good sign!)

Emoji 135k

Ostwind3 115k (-49%)

Valerian 115k (-33%)

Dunkirk 105k (-47%)

Grießnockerlaffäre 100k

Pubertier 60k (-20%)

Baby Driver 60k (-35%/-51%)

SM:H 50k (-51%)

Alibi.com 50k

 

Weather was predicted to be worse today but it seems it'll be rather good...

Edited by Aristis
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