BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[el sid]

Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:
Ostwind 3: 76k
Dunkirk: 51k - so it was overestimated by 18k yesterday, I'm sorry. And surprised because it was way in front in most other reports too. Still an ok number and WOM is of course good. I only hope that it's not a too special film for the GA
Baby Driver: 20k
Sie nannten ihn Spencer: 7.650 admissions - good for mostly only one show/day
Wish Upon: 7.150 -> 45 OW in the first trend
The Party: 6.150k -> 35 OW

Holdovers:
DM3: 80k (90k in actuals last Thursday)
Valerian: 40k (45k) - nice, maybe a good counter program to the darker Dunkirk
Spider-MAn: Homecoming: 25k (35k) - 8k underestimated yesterday, probably the summer holidays in almost every state help now
 

[titanic2187]

5 hours ago, el sid said:

Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:
Ostwind 3: 76k
Dunkirk: 51k - so it was overestimated by 18k yesterday, I'm sorry. And surprised because it was way in front in most other reports too. Still an ok number and WOM is of course good. I only hope that it's not a too special film for the GA
Baby Driver: 20k
Sie nannten ihn Spencer: 7.650 admissions - good for mostly only one show/day
Wish Upon: 7.150 -> 45 OW in the first trend
The Party: 6.150k -> 35 OW

Holdovers:
DM3: 80k (90k in actuals last Thursday)
Valerian: 40k (45k) - nice, maybe a good counter program to the darker Dunkirk
Spider-MAn: Homecoming: 25k (35k) - 8k underestimated yesterday, probably the summer holidays in almost every state help now
 

Any idea on how IMAX screen perform? German seem to be more 3D-friendly than american, so I presume that IMAX could play even better here....

51k is a bit disappointing...especially(spoiler) the movie never explicitly depict that german are villian...... 

[el sid]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Any idea on how IMAX screen perform? German seem to be more 3D-friendly than american, so I presume that IMAX could play even better here....

51k is a bit disappointing...especially(spoiler) the movie never explicitly depict that german are villian...... 

For sure the IMAX screen perform has no big impact because sadly there are almost no IMAX-theaters left in Germany. I think we have only 3 (!) at the moment and Austria has more. Even the wonderful Munich IMAX is closed now. In general you're right about the 3D. Many theaters just show a film in 3D, if you want or not . But Dunkirk has 2D shows in the theaters I looked at and made 460k Euro yesterday, Valerian with 3D made 410k Euro. Let's see...I'm curious myself how its legs will be. For such a topic the OW number is pretty ok.

[Aristis]

Since percentage drops weren't posted yet I'll just do that:

 

DM3 -24% (nearly 3,3M admissions untill Sunday with that trend, the 1st position on the yearly chart (FSOG2 3.442.654) could be reached sooner than I thought.

Valerian -23% (good drop and near 550k cume! Could be $7m+ after Sunday)

SM:H -36%

Das Pubertier -5%!

 

Would be a good weekend, we'll see with the next trend how that develops.

[John Marston]

9 hours ago, el sid said:

Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:
Ostwind 3: 76k
Dunkirk: 51k - so it was overestimated by 18k yesterday, I'm sorry. And surprised because it was way in front in most other reports too. Still an ok number and WOM is of course good. I only hope that it's not a too special film for the GA
Baby Driver: 20k
Sie nannten ihn Spencer: 7.650 admissions - good for mostly only one show/day
Wish Upon: 7.150 -> 45 OW in the first trend
The Party: 6.150k -> 35 OW

Holdovers:
DM3: 80k (90k in actuals last Thursday)
Valerian: 40k (45k) - nice, maybe a good counter program to the darker Dunkirk
Spider-MAn: Homecoming: 25k (35k) - 8k underestimated yesterday, probably the summer holidays in almost every state help now
 

 

 

do you have POTC 5 drop

[Aristis]

2nd Trend:

 

DM3 up to 375k (-19%)

Ostwind 275k

Dunkirk 225k

Valerian 175k (-23%)

BD 125k

SM:H 100k (-36%)

Pubertier 85k (-5%)

...

POTC5 25k (-31%)

Baywatch 25k (-34%)

Edited July 29, 2017 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

6 releases with >100k admissions, beautiful!

[Rthmessiah]

14 hours ago, el sid said:

For sure the IMAX screen perform has no big impact because sadly there are almost no IMAX-theaters left in Germany. I think we have only 3 (!) at the moment and Austria has more. Even the wonderful Munich IMAX is closed now. In general you're right about the 3D. Many theaters just show a film in 3D, if you want or not . But Dunkirk has 2D shows in the theaters I looked at and made 460k Euro yesterday, Valerian with 3D made 410k Euro. Let's see...I'm curious myself how its legs will be. For such a topic the OW number is pretty ok.

No Imax but there are a few sites with 70mm...and Yeah on 3D  with Valerian nearly all BO is 3D

[IndustriousAngel]

well, I've seen Valerian twice now, both times in 2D, but you really hace too search for those shows, 90% and all the biggest screens are 3D.

 

Ostwind 3 is a lot below Friday estimates, seems extremely frontloaded as usual with YA movies ... good opening nontheless.

[IndustriousAngel]

Final weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: DM3 - 350k admissions (-24%)

#2: Ostwind3 - 225k (ugh, that's extremely frontloaded, total will drop a lot from part 2)

#3: Dunkirk - 200k (also frontloaded, strange for the adult theme, must be Nolan fans)

#4: Valerian - 175k (-23% - sweet drop after the lukewarm opening, very good WOM)

#5: BabyDriver - 125k (bit of a disappointment here)

#6: SM:H - 100k (-36%)

 

Basically, none of the three big openers did what I hoped it would do; the drops for holdovers however are good.

[marveldcfox]

5 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Final weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: DM3 - 350k admissions (-24%)

#2: Ostwind3 - 225k (ugh, that's extremely frontloaded, total will drop a lot from part 2)

#3: Dunkirk - 200k (also frontloaded, strange for the adult theme, must be Nolan fans)

#4: Valerian - 175k (-23% - sweet drop after the lukewarm opening, very good WOM)

#5: BabyDriver - 125k (bit of a disappointment here)

#6: SM:H - 100k (-36%)

 

Basically, none of the three big openers did what I hoped it would do; the drops for holdovers however are good.

Germany being somewhat kind to Besson.

 

France....meh

 

USA...a big fat middle finger.

 

 

[BenedictL11]

Unless its actuals go down big, at least BD's opening was 20% better than Lights Out and on par with Ghostbusters. Could've been better but could've been worse, too.

[Rthmessiah]

On 7/29/2017 at 7:55 PM, Rth Homecoming said:

No Imax but there are a few sites with 70mm...and Yeah on 3D  with Valerian nearly all BO is 3D

I was forgetting there is one Imax location the Cinestar Sony Centre in Berlin running DK Imax Laser #1 location followed by 70mmm Palast Berlin

[George Parr]

Monday estimates for the weekend are up:

 

#1 DM3 315k

#2 Ostwind 3 225k

#3 Dunkirk 200k

#4 Valerian 170k

#5 Baby Driver 115k

#6 Spiderman 100k

#7 Das Pubertier 75k

 

Some further drops from the third trend, most noticeably DM3, down from 350k to 315k.

[IndustriousAngel]

The Austrian Film Institute must be on overtime, July numbers are already online and it's not been that good, actually one of the worst in the last 10 years. Some positive numbers - PotC5 and Baywatch both cleared the 3mil total admission mark, as did July leader DM3 which will cross 4mil total soon.

 

(note: last weekend was not counted for July but will instead be included in August so the low numbers are a bit skewed ... so let's wait if August makes up for it!)

Edited July 31, 2017 by IndustriousAngel

[George Parr]

2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

The Austrian Film Institute must be on overtime, July numbers are already online and it's not been that good, actually one of the worst in the last 10 years. Some positive numbers - PotC5 and Baywatch both cleared the 3mil total admission mark, as did July leader DM3 which will cross 4mil total soon.

 

(note: last weekend was not counted for July but will instead be included in August so the low numbers are a bit skewed ... so let's wait if August makes up for it!)

Did you mean 300k instead of 3m or is that a "it would be 3m if prorated to the size of Germany"?

Because I have read about those two passing the 300k blockbuster mark in Austria, but they obviously haven't topped the 3m mark in either Austria or Germany

 

It seems rather odd that they would count a weekend that belonged entirely to July towards August. I don't even see a point in it, all it does is cut July down to 4 weekends while upping August to 5 for no good reason whatsoever. It would have made some sense if the weekend had been split between the months, but that clearly isn't the case here.

[IndustriousAngel]

 

5 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Did you mean 300k instead of 3m or is that a "it would be 3m if prorated to the size of Germany"?

Because I have read about those two passing the 300k blockbuster mark in Austria, but they obviously haven't topped the 3m mark in either Austria or Germany

 

It seems rather odd that they would count a weekend that belonged entirely to July towards August. I don't even see a point in it, all it does is cut July down to 4 weekends while upping August to 5 for no good reason whatsoever. It would have made some sense if the weekend had been split between the months, but that clearly isn't the case here.

sorry, of course that's 300k for Austria (300k for the "Golden Ticket", 600k for the "Platinum Ticket" and, rarely seen, 1mil admissions for the "Diamond Ticket")

[Bastien]

On 30/07/2017 at 6:18 PM, marveldcfox said:

Germany being somewhat kind to Besson.

 

France....meh

 

USA...a big fat middle finger.

 

 

You want to trash Valerian so much that what you're saying is absolutely non sense.

 

How France could be less kind to Besson than Germany with this Valerian opening (second biggest of the year) ?

[marveldcfox]

7 minutes ago, Bastien said:

You want to trash Valerian so much that what you're saying is absolutely non sense.

 

How France could be less kind to Besson than Germany with this Valerian opening (second biggest of the year) ?

Opening is on par with Rogue One. With similar legs will end up at 40M. But that is simply not enough for a 200+ budget movie.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Despicable Me 3	320.265	782	410	3.264.954	27.459.281	-31	4
2	Ostwind 3	226.209	584	387	229.560	1.606.671	-	1
3	Dunkirk	199.881	465	430	203.677	1.891.471	-	1
4	Valerian	172.235	578	298	542.432	6.085.472	-25	2
5	Spider-Man : Homecoming	102.373	640	160	757.097	7.737.107	-35	3
6	Baby Driver	91.851	358	257	123.320	985.494	-	1
7	Das Pubertier	75.281	572	132	508.414	3.972.405	-11	4
8	Wish Upon	35.765	175	204	44.628	368.245	-	1
9	The Party	29.075	121	240	33.325	264.968	-	1
10	Pirates of the Caribbean 5	23.624	269	88	2.575.457	27.027.814	-34	10
11	Baywatch	21.189	294	72	1.900.053	15.745.687	-44	9
12	Transformers 5	18.340	282	65	1.157.043	13.242.247	-52	6
13	Paris can Wait	14.274	110	130	72.251	617.240	-8	3
14	Sie nannten ihn Spencer	11.080	191	58	13.637	135.001	-	1
15	Rough Night	10.916	213	51	382.484	3.148.163	-55	5
16	Willkommen bei den Hartmanns	9.457	73	130	3.684.066	29.395.081	+52	39
17	Un Profil Pour Deux	9.089	128	71	202.947	1.500.488	+9	6
18	La La Land	7.538	13	580	1.711.256	14.538.928	+115	29
19	Wonder Woman	7.315	153	48	755.051	7.985.976	-52	7
20	Gifted	7.075	127	56	66.380	477.587	-37	3

 

The wide openers were a bit underwhelming: Ostwind 3 is dropping from the successful part 2, 1mil total look near impossible. Dunkirk will probably miss 1mil too, both seemed frontloaded. Baby Driver is my personal disappointment for the weekend, I was expecting a lot more - that PTA is not good. Holdovers managed nice drops - Despicable Me 3 sailed past 3mil total and will cross 4mil with ease, 5mil look hard now though. Valerian recovered from the mediocre opening with strong weekdays and a very nice drop; 1mil seem to be possible - still disappointing but at least it will beat Spider-Man and Wonder Woman. Das Pubertier had another excellent hold - but the PTA is rather low by now after an expansion, from now on there's not much potential.  On the lower end of the chart, there were some longrunners with increases thanks to Open Air shows.

 

Next weekend: Summer is back, so expect hard drops for holdovers, especially as some have already shown signs of frontloadedness. Four openers, again with very different potential and target demo, make is an interesting weekend nontheless - the third Planet of the Apes has a good chance at leading the chart. The Emoji Movie has very little appeal but kiddie CGI always has some potential. French production Alibi.com goes for the comedy crowd, as does Griesnockerlaffäre, the 4th in a series of Bajuvarian crime comedies adapted from the bestselling Rita Falk novels - they're blockbusters in the south but go nearly unnoticed in northern Germany. I can see Apes doing a 250k OW, while the others should land around the 100k mark (Alibi.com is really hard to predict, in all probability it will end nearer 50k than 100, but I'm always hoping for more!). In limited release, Russian alien invasion flick Attraction might attract some viewers but I seriously doubt any wide appeal.