BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

Green Book did get a massive awards push, 1mil total should be no problem if weekday numbers continue through the weekend.

[terrestrial]

InsideKino‏ @MarkGInsideKino 2h2 hours ago

More

Von Drachen, Pferden und Oscars - der aktuelle Deutschland-Trend: http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm#Freitag_1._M%C3%A4rz_2019 …

Quote

Trend:
weekend weather prognosis pro cinema, but as yesterday the weather still was sunny the impact for family movies is still not clear/sure.
Hot to train your dragon 3 and Ostwind - Aris Ankunft might get 200k + admissions.
...Oscars ... Green Book until now best weekend ~ 150k admissions = ~ till Sunday 775k admissions.

Bohemian Rhapsody .... Oscar... 18th weekend ... might reach the 50k admissions step (3.27m sum).
Escape Room (150k till Sunday) and Hard Powder(140k till Sunday).
Alita - Battle Angel - 3rd weekend ~ 90k admissions (535k sum).

 

 

 

 

[terrestrial]

https://www.cinevoluzzer.de/buzzometer/

 

Buzzometer vom 7. März 2019

V

After a very 'mau' (not good) weekend ... „Captain Marvel“ .... hopefully ensure..... If it was clever to position it against the local comedy Rate Your Date ~ we will see.

Captain Marvel

~ This cinema year could not really convince, maybe this CBM will change that. The Internet indicators look very promising...~ expecting clearly over 500000 admissions.

Buzzometer 8/10 Top-Flop meter 2+

Rate Your Date

Internnet buzz did not convince compltely, local comedy about a dating-app, beside influencerin Nilam Farooq is ~ involved. unfavorable competition situation, not enough stars... best to reckon with under 100.000 admissions.

Buzz 5/10, top-flop -2

Edited March 1, 2019 by terrestrial

[el sid]

And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

The new releases:

Ostwind – Aris Ankunft (released in 630 theaters): 16.5k
Escape Room (330): 13k
Cold Pursuit (434): 12.5k
Wie gut ist Deine Beziehung? (180): 2k → 25k admissions OW in the first trend

The holdovers:

Green Book: 18k(!) (actuals last Thursday 11k)
How to Train Your Dragon 3: 14k whole day (actuals last Thursday 17k whole day) - quite nice
Alita: 11.5k (16.5k) - also ok

[Taruseth]

3 hours ago, terrestrial said:

InsideKino‏ @MarkGInsideKino 2h2 hours ago

More

Von Drachen, Pferden und Oscars - der aktuelle Deutschland-Trend: http://www.insidekino.com/News.htm#Freitag_1._M%C3%A4rz_2019 …

 

 

 

 

Damn, BR might be above 50k again (or at least around 50k) and a final after the weekend of 3.27M means that it should get close to 3.35M in the end, I'd hope that it would get past IW, but that would need 3.4M and I think that is a little much, considering that Oscars play a role in this good weekend.

[Taruseth]

On 1/25/2019 at 7:26 PM, Taruseth said:

With that hold shouldn't Junge be able to get to something around 3.3M...

Would be around 2450k (probably a little less after that weekend) And then add like 4x the weekend (that would mean adding 800k for 3.25M...

 

If you take a look at the top movies last year (partly guesses for final number)

FB2 3.9M (Now: 3.828M)

IW: 3.4M

Junge: 3.25M (2.2M) (maybe I am overestimating it and it will end closer to 3M)

BR: 3.2M (2.82M)

Fifty S. 3M

HT3: 2.54M

JW2: 2.4

Grinch: 2.3 (2.26)

DP2: 2.24M

I2: 2.19M

MM2: 2.18M

Aqm: 2M

Jim Knopf: 1.81M

BP: 1.8M

Seems like (Adm -> €):

FB2: 3.86M -> 38.8M

Junge: 3.45M (hold better than I thought) -> 28.9M

IW: 3.4M -> 37.9M

BR: 3.35M (hold better than I thought) -> 31M

Fifty S. 3M -> 27.4M

HT3: 2.54M -> 18.5M

JW2: 2.4 -> 25.85M

Grinch: 2.27 -> 17.7M

DP2: 2.24M -> 20.3M

I2: 2.19M -> 17.95M

MM2: 2.18M -> 18.2M

Aqm: 1.95M -> 21.6M

Jim Knopf: 1.83M -> 12.1M

BP: 1.8M -> 19.2M

 

That makes this the 6th year in which a HP film one (2001 HP1 (12.56M); 2005 HP4 (8M); 2007 HP5 (7.1M); HP7 (5.84M); 2011 HP8 (6.47M))

Also what a downfall from 12.56M admissions to 3.86M adm., even in € that means a drop from 77M to 38.8M.

[Taruseth]

Also this weekend I think Universal will take over #1 from Disney in being the top adm. distributor (

Next weekend with CM release Disney should take back #1.

Then on the OW of Us Uni might take back over and then Dumbo opens the following weekend, so Disney might take back. And then I think with Endgame and Aladdin Disney should be in the lead and stay in lead with TLK, Frozen 2, TS4 and IX.

[el sid]

The second trend with some changes:

#1 HtTYD3 220k
#2 Ostwind 200k
#3 Green Book 160k
#4 Escape Room 125k
#5 Cold Pursuit 125k
#6 Alita 90k
#7 Bohemian Rhapsody 60k
#8 The Lego Movie 2 60k 
#9 Der Club der roten Bänder 50k
#10 Ralph II 50k
#11 Der Junge muss an die frische Luft 42.5k
#12 Der goldene Handschuh 40k
#13 Mia And The White Lion 40k
#14 Vice 35k
#15 Happy Death Day 2U 32.5k
#16 Checker Tobi 30k
#17 Wie gut ist Deine Beziehung? 25k

Edited March 2, 2019 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

that's a bit low for Ostwind4, maybe some franchise or horse fatigue? Green Book of course outstanding. as expected, close battle between the other openers.

[titanic2187]

That is near 100% up for BR and GB!

Massive oscar bump! 

 

BR could challenge IW now!

[IndustriousAngel]

with every new estimate, Ostwind4 goes down and GreenBook up! HTTYD3 wins the weekend with a 6% drop after the horrible fall last weekend

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

with every new estimate, Ostwind4 goes down and GreenBook up! HTTYD3 wins the weekend with a 6% drop after the horrible fall last weekend

HTTYD3 dropped 34% last weekend. 

[IndustriousAngel]

3 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

HTTYD3 dropped 34% last weekend. 

yep, and it wasn't really the movie's fault, every family release got hit hard. Nice to see better numbers!

[pepsa]

56 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

yep, and it wasn't really the movie's fault, every family release got hit hard. Nice to see better numbers!

I love how 34% is a harsh drop. Where in most markets it's a good drop. (I thought it was also good in Germany)

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I love how 34% is a harsh drop. Where in most markets it's a good drop. (I thought it was also good in Germany)

Yeah, that would be a good drop everywhere (Okay, maybe not in Japan) but it's good in Germany too. At least it's okay.

[IndustriousAngel]

I think a drop of >30% for a family CGI movie is rather steep, especially if it follows an already extremely steep drop in weekend2. Basically the 3rd weekend was only one third of the opening one. That's rare for such releases.

[Aristis]

59 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

especially if it follows an already extremely steep drop in weekend2

Yeah, that's the thing - dropping 34% would not have been that bad, but dropping 47% and 34% two weeks in a row hopes for 3M+ were destroyed...

 

However, I'm happy that after the awful OW drops for Lego Movie are rather well. My local cinema has just 1 showtime per day for the movie, even at the weekends, that'a even less than Ralph2...

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

I think a drop of >30% for a family CGI movie is rather steep, especially if it follows an already extremely steep drop in weekend2. Basically the 3rd weekend was only one third of the opening one. That's rare for such releases.

Yeah, together with the weekend 2 drop it really looks kinda back.

 

Also I think I kinda ignored that drops in Germany tend to be a little better than in the US for example (Maybe I am wrong about this, but it feels like that)

Edited March 3, 2019 by Taruseth

[IndustriousAngel]

12 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Also I think I kinda ignored that drops in Germany tend to be a little better than in the US for example (Maybe I am wrong about this, but it feels like that)

yes, generally drops are better than in the US, and drops for family stuff even more. In Austria, openings tend do be a little bigger than in Germany and drops steeper (probably because we have more seats per capita; a sellout situation in Austria is extremley rare)

 

The good news this weekend: Green Book had its strongest weekend to date, in Germany as well as in Austria. Let's see how far the awards win can carry it

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	How to Tame Your Dragon 3	193.149	710	272	1.681.191	14.264.719	-10	4
2	Green Book	174.029	617	282	797.434	7.065.466	+96	5
3	Ostwind 4	169.356	629	269	169.356	1.204.336	-	1
4	Escape Room	118.643	330	360	136.633	1.161.069	-	1
5	Cold Pursuit	104.275	435	240	132.449	1.113.792	-	1
6	Battle Angel Alita	100.340	602	167	546.793	6.034.040	-25	3
7	Bohemian Rhapsody	63.534	542	117	3.280.219	30.369.624	+116	18
8	The Lego Movie 2	57.457	495	116	381.988	2.876.211	-4	4
9	Der Junge muss an die frische Luft	51.215	657	78	3.326.257	27.997.368	-14	10
10	Wreck-it Ralph 2	49.972	527	95	1.208.786	9.268.076	+2	6
11	Club der roten Bänder	45.117	592	76	373.081	3.101.085	-39	3
12	Der goldene Handschuh	37.946	157	242	102.699	907.106	-12	2
13	Mia et le Lion Blanc	36.770	498	74	438.754	3.054.089	-2	5
14	Vice	36.009	174	207	112.082	981.960	-26	2
15	Happy Death Day 2U	33.772	379	89	216.568	1.839.455	-42	3
16	Checker Tobi und das Geheimnis unseres Planeten	24.245	352	69	250.693	1.609.676	+14	5
17	Glass	20.434	287	71	898.433	8.304.505	-39	7
-	MET: La Fille du Régiment	20.370	211	97	20.370	598.706	-	1
18	Wie gut ist deine Beziehung?	18.524	178	104	25.686	204.196	-	1
19	Minuscule 2	17.638	323	55	41.573	273.482	+10	2
20	The Favourite	12.549	170	74	199.352	1.629.269	+40	6

A weekend for the awards winners … Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book with excellent increases! How to Tame Your Dragon 3 seems to have stopped its freefall but again, drops for other CGI movies were better. Among openers, Ostwind 4 stayed a bit below expectations while Escape Room and Cold Pursuit opened as expected.

Next weekend: Well, there's only one real interesting opener and that's Captain Marvel. While a rather unknown property, Marvel has managed to impress itself upon audiences and has built a rather reliable fanbase and so even an unknown superhero might open to something around 500k admissions. Direct competition like Alita or Cold Pursuit will be hit hard; family fare otoh might see good holds once more without new competition.