Mexico Box Office | Kongzilla repeats on top, Civil War and Abigail underperform

[Carlangonz]

Strange trajectory for Baba Yaga particularly on Sat to Sun but a great result nevertheless. Weekdays should support it being an adult title but runtime may limit it compared to Parabellum but WOM should push it past $180M+ and for the first time for the saga over $10M USD.

 

¡Que Viva Mexico! isn't neccesarily a bomb but will barely do anything for Sony and their aggressive strategy. Toxic wom and imminent release on Netflix will hurt it.

 

Even after their drops, Scream VI and Creed III are now the highest grossers in lc, USD and admissions of their own sagas. The Whale is going to finish way closer to Fury of Gods than anyone had expected when it launched. Of course the awful part is for Shazam because it will finish with a 1/3 less than its predecessor in lc and just 1/2 of admissions. 

Wonderful for All Those Voices squezzing a nice PSA as it is tradition for these musical events. Demon Slayer saying goodbye to the chart and softly going over Resurrection of F.

With both Quantumania and Puss in Boots out of the Top 10 is crazy that the latter grossed nearly $200M more than the former and more than double of Shazam. As the chart proves lack of competition and quality from recent titles seems to be a struggle for family titles. Dungeons & Dragons is coming this Wednesday but is looking really bad right now. Paramount is certainly doing an effort but seems like won't work in the end.

That said; it feels late 2021 where every underperformance or flop from similar titles kept strenghten No Way Home but this time is Mario. So $350M+ 5-Day OW or bust.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Purple Minion]

Additional lc totals from CANACINE weekly spreadsheet, up to the 26th:

 

Puss in Boots 2:  514,126,311 

Quantumania:  330,055,479 - grossed less than Puss over the weekend. Ouch.

Avatar 2: 1,084,937,871

DC League of Super Pets: 156,742,080 

[Carlangonz]

11 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

Puss in Boots 2:  514,126,311 

Admissions seems pretty impressive to me, with 8.91M it came on par with The Batman and Thor: Love & Thunder and above the two Venom, The Force Awakens and Fast 9 and third best Dreamworks only below Shrek 2 and Boss Baby.

[Issac Newton]

 

Shinkai is in Mexico

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Shinkai is in Mexico

Can't believe we went from timid press to fan-events with cast and crew. First Tanjiro Kamado getting a red carpet for To the Swordsmith Village and now this. 

 

Btw tickets now on sale for Suzume. It gets a full opening on the 12th. 

 

In other news Dungeons & Dragons  is struggling big time. Holidays start today so we'll see if it picks up but so far looks seems like Baba Yaga will win the weekend again.

[Issac Newton]

 

Red Carpet!! Hope Mexico &it's neighbours support Shinkai new work

[Carlangonz]

13 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

 

Red Carpet!! Hope Mexico &it's neighbours support Shinkai new work

Apparently it had good reception from the press screenings. I'm hopeful on a $20M opening. 

 

To the Swordsmith Village run is coming to an end after this weekend but it has now passed $100M becoming only the third japanese release to reach the milestone.

 

Still seems like a close call for No. 1 between John Wick and Dungeons & Dragons with the former coming stronger with VIP and premiums. Both aim at mid-high 30s.

[Purple Minion]

D&D OW is an OK-ish $2.4M, about 43M lc. Shazam 2 reached $9.2M (still #1 intl market), Creed III total is $8.3M and Scream VI $4.5M. No news yet on JW4 

 

Edited April 2, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Carlangonz]

18 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

D&D OW is an OK-ish $2.4M, about 43M lc. Shazam 2 reached $9.2M (still #1 intl market), Creed III total is $8.3M and Scream VI $4.5M. No news yet on JW4 

 

Better than expected for D&D. Hopefully legs well too. I'm thinking $136M-$138M at the end of the weekend for JW4, around $7.7M total.

 

ER is at its best since Sep 2017. I'm keeping track of Mario's final days and it seems like they'll go past The Batman and Love & Thunder. Definitely way above Rise of Gru.

[Carlangonz]

1. John Wick: Chapter 4 - $51.5M/$152.8M
2. Dungeons & Dragons - $41.8M
3. Shazam: Fury of Gods - $18.8M/$173.8M
4. ¡Qué Viva México! - $16.7M/$51.3M
5. Scream VI - $5.7M/$93.3M
6. Marlowe - $3.4M
7. The Whale - $2.9M/$177M
8. Creed III - $2.9M/$153.8M
9. Sword Art Online: Scherzo of Deep Night - $2.3M
10. Purgatorio - $1.3M

Superb hold for Baba Yaga. It has now surpassed Parabellum's total gross in lc and USD and will do it in admissions in a couple of days. Its hold is even more remarkable considering it lost PLFs and other premium formats. It'll remain as the safest adult option for the next weeks so $220M final bode well, which is 50% from Parabellum and 7 times bigger than first John Wick.

Dungeons & Dragons behaved better than expected which reflects a good wom from start however it is well below Alita or Ready Player One which is still underwhelming in the bigger picture.

With holidays up seems like Shazam will make it past $10M USD but it'll take a dive once Mario launches. Same as pretty much everything else.

Super Mario Bros aims the biggest opening since Multiverse of Madness thanks to a combination of long-time recognition of the character and saga altogether, massive marketing from Universal and excelent advanced sales comparing to those of several CBM from last year like The Batman, Thor 4 and Wakanda Forever.

Walk-ups shall remain a mystery but it check boxes to arrive closer to Toy Story 4/The Lion King rather than Rise of Gru/Sonic.

 

[Purple Minion]

On 3/17/2023 at 1:22 AM, Sophia Jane said:

If Mexico really opened 90m lc,then we can see Shazam 2 Mexico B.O bigger than China.

The Oracle has spoken!

[Carlangonz]

I'll weight it later today but Mario is getting a Toy Story 4-type of jumps in the final hours. I got a 23% increase within the Perisur comp between Mon-Tue but is bigger in other venues. 

 

Toy Story 4 had such insane walk-ups that its night shows rivaled with those of Endgame in several 1st tier locations. And it opened on a regular Friday with no previews or midnights. Mario is opening in the middle of spring break with no limitations on late night and matinees so sky is the limit. 

[Carlangonz]

Cinépolis Perisur - 21 hours before release

 

Super Mario Bros - 2,351 sold/5,887 available (39.44%)

 

Wakanda Forever - Previews (T-0 Days): 1,901/2,820 (67.41%)

Love & Thunder - Previews (T-0 Days): 2,431/3,970 (61.23%)

Multiverse of Madness - Previews (T-0 Days): 2,867/3,136 (91.42%)

The Batman - Full OD (T-1 Day) 2,127/6,557 (32.44%)

Strong comps. We can ignore L&T because that was extremely pre-sale heavy. Safe it'll beat The Batman's $40M OD which is the closest comp as that one also opened on a Wednesday w/o previews or midnights although in a non-holiday. No Way Home is actually a much closer comp (Holiday Wed/No midnights or previews) and that one also points towards a high 40s OD. 

 

Cinépolis Buenavista - 20 hours before release

 

Super Mario Bros - 2,022 sold/6,668 available (30.32%)

 

Wakanda Forever - Previews (T-0 Days): 1,594/1,942 (82.08%)

Love & Thunder - Previews (T-0 Days): 2,177/3,016 (72.18%)

Multiverse of Madness - Previews (T-0 Days) 2,754/2,895 (95.13%)

The Batman - Full OD (T-1 Day) 2,298/6,616 (34.73%) 

 

This one is a bit particular because presales started way later than in other locations. To put in perspective, Perisur doubled its numbers from last Wednesday while Buenavista has made 8 times more in the same timeframe. Even though is below The Batman its strenght compared Wakanda Forever which had strong walk-ups its remarkable which along with The Batman also translates into a $40M+ OD.

 

I didn't include L&T's and MOM's comps for OD - Previews but it's looking pretty strong compared to them particularly in Perisur where it's outselling Love and Thunder's thursday by 178%. and coming close to Multiverse of Madness only by 10%.

 

Of couse $40M+ OD is just a starting point and would be well above Rise of Gru's $33M but considering animations are way backloaded than CBM titles I think we can expect massive walk-ins as final hours have pointed out. Midday Mon to Midday Tue has growth over 30% in the Perisur comp and nearly 40% in the Buenavista comp.

I also have to add that neither of these comps had 3D shows up for sale but in locations where it had them they're easily the prefered format so I think average ticket price will remain high at least this weekend. 

 

Opening Day: $75M-$85M (Best OD for Illumination and 3rd best for Universal)

Opening Weekend (5-Day): $375M-$400M +/- $25M

 

[Purple Minion]

Assuming ER doesn't plummet, that'd be a super $20M+ (USD) OW!

[Carlangonz]

My final count 14 hours before shows begin for Perisur which grew 17% in the last 7 hours and has sold  2,773 seats which put it 30.3% ahead of The Batman's comp, 14.06% above Love and Thunder's final comp which was taken 6 hours before start and at 30% of No Way Home preliminary result a day earlier.

 

The Batman and No Way Home comps put it at $52M-$54M OD and Love and Thunder result in a $47M OD. Shows are still missing from several theatres but I'm expecting 4,500+ screens for the weekend. 

 

Here's the interesting part, if I take comps from both Love and Thunder and Multiverse of Madness for their respective OD incl previews it delivers an opening between $67M-$84M

 

I can now say that an opening day over $100M shouldn't be ruled out

Edited April 5, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

As we wait for numbers which hopefully are considered as a full OD and not previews first early shows are doing great in premium formats especially 4DX, VIP and Junior and ok in traditional shows. 

Barbie was #1 TT for over 24 hours and activity is even stronger in IG or Tik Tok. Even Across the Spiderverse is now gone from Top 30. I really don't want another Detective Pikachu situation but at least should be a beast among the 18-35 demo and pull a good opening but not sure about its prospects as a 4Q title.

Edited April 5, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

On 4/4/2023 at 9:36 PM, Carlangonz said:

 

I can now say that an opening day over $100M shouldn't be ruled out

I'm hearing largest OD ever for Universal! 

 

$5.8M! 

Edited April 6, 2023 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

Cinépolis is having a hard time in both app and website. I don't really think they're related to demand for Mario but it does is an unfortunate coincidence.

 

Early shows looking stronger today but that's going to be repealed by weaker late night shows. The good thing is that won't be front-loaded. 

 

Second best OD for an animation only below TS4. I do believe it's coming o/u to the 3-Day opening of that one besting Multiverse of Madness as the second best opening since the start of pandemic era. $25M o/u for the 5-Day. 

 

Also only the fifth title ever to pull a $100M opening day without previews or midnights only below both No Way Home, final two Avengers and Toy Story 4.

Edited April 6, 2023 by Carlangonz

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Carlangonz said:

Cinépolis is having a hard time in both app and website. I don't really think they're related to demand for Mario but it does is an unfortunate coincidence.

 

Early shows looking stronger today but that's going to be repealed by weaker late night shows. The good thing is that won't be front-loaded. 

 

Second best OD for an animation only below TS4. I do believe it's coming o/u to the 3-Day opening of that one besting Multiverse of Madness as the second best opening since the start of pandemic era. $25M o/u for the 5-Day. 

 

Also only the fifth title ever to pull a $100M opening day without previews or midnights only below both No Way Home, final two Avengers and Toy Story 4.

What is your expected daily trend.

[Carlangonz]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

What is your expected daily trend.

I'm waiting to see how it plays but I'm thinking high 4 today, low 4 Fri and over 5 for each Sat and Sun. Sat looks like the strongest day so not expecting much of a jump on Sun.