AniNate Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 (edited) 59 minutes ago, Legion Again said: Tracking is literally intended to be a prediction of the final ow. That it’s not the final prediction of the eventual ow doesn’t excuse misses No it is not, especially when presales begin more than a month in advance. Every movie has a unique presale pattern and the best people can do is compare it to prior movies. Part of the fun is the ebbs and flows of the final leg of the movie's marketing campaign. It would be dreadfully boring if tracking was dead on accurate for every movie more than a month before it actually came out, and there would be no point to that final promotional leg if that were truly 100% possible. It's also not like the amateur trackers were thinking much better until the past week. Edited June 11 by AniNate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joyous Legion Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 1 hour ago, AniNate said: No it is not Yes, it is. 1 hour ago, AniNate said: Every movie has a unique presale pattern and the best people can do is compare it to prior movies. Sure, true — compare it in an attempt to forecast what the ow will ultimately be! 1 hour ago, AniNate said: Part of the fun is the ebbs and flows of the final leg of the movie's marketing campaign. It would be dreadfully boring if tracking was dead on accurate for every movie more than a month before it actually came out Sure, true. It would be boring for spectators if forecast were more reliable. But that doesn’t mean the goal from the forecasting side isn’t being maximally reliable. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Legion Again said: Sure, true. It would be boring for spectators if forecast were more reliable. But that doesn’t mean the goal from the forecasting side isn’t being maximally reliable. Maximum reliability at the time. I think it is reasonable to "excuse" people for not knowing the future. There was little to actually suggest a $100-110 million weekend for awhile beyond the precedent of the original movie's ticket sales nine years ago, and that has hardly been a reliable barometer for sequels in the post-Covid era. Edited June 11 by AniNate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted June 11 Author Share Posted June 11 4 hours ago, kayumanggi said: It’s getting this at Majestic Cinema here in Wisconsin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potiki Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 (edited) 22 minutes ago, AniNate said: There was little to actually suggest a $100-110 million weekend for awhile beyond the precedent of the original movie's ticket sales nine years ago, and that has hardly been a reliable barometer for sequels in the post-Covid era. May I introduce you to the Box Office Buzz, Tracking and Pre-Sale Thread on this very forum: The last few pages or so suggest a decent preview number and a few people are tracking Friday sales (or even Saturday/Sunday) show that it shouldn't be front loaded. Expecting a $100m right now isn't too crazy, although I have been expecting around a $100m opening since the movie was announced (if anything recent ticket sales may make me up that prediction as well as the full run domestic prediction). I also remember having this discussion a few weeks ago when things weren't as positive but TLDR industry lowballs are common. If you want to revisit that discussion: Edited June 11 by Potiki 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 I am very familiar with the tracking thread, thank you. Yes, they are saying that now but they were not two weeks ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joyous Legion Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 26 minutes ago, AniNate said: Maximum reliability at the time. I think it is reasonable to "excuse" people for not knowing the future. There was little to actually suggest a $100-110 million weekend for awhile beyond the precedent of the original movie's ticket sales nine years ago, and that has hardly been a reliable barometer for sequels in the post-Covid era. Sure, I think it’s fair to say that 90s wasn’t an unreasonable prediction given info at the time. Was on 90s for quite a while. I just wanted to be clear that the ultimate goal at the end of the day is actually predicting what it will open to since it seemed like there was some sentiment to the contrary. Perhaps I misunderstood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potiki Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 (edited) 10 minutes ago, AniNate said: I am very familiar with the tracking thread, thank you. Yes, they are saying that now but they were not two weeks ago Nothing from Inside Out 2 weeks ago suggested it couldn't open to $100m+ though, especially due to it being an animated family film as those ramp up in sales late i.e. KFP4 from earlier this year. Edit This post from Porthos probably articulates the point much better and in depth than what I have written above and it is from roughly 2 weeks ago Edited June 11 by Potiki 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: I agree. At least 111m OW 🙂 Since the acceleration pace remains steady, I am hoping for OW to come above ATSV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 (edited) $120 mil would be about what the original's opening adjusts to. Would give next weekend a chance at beating last year's comp as well, that's the big benchmark I'd like to cross to put a pin in the "cinema is doomed" discourse for a bit Edited June 11 by AniNate 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpiderByte Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 It's certainly be nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toutvabien Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Anything over $100m is a major win, $110-120m is a great range and can lead to $400m+ run and anything higher is phenomenal. The good thing is, even opening to $85m (which is starting to look unlikely) doesn't rule out a $300m finish based on how Pixar sequels leg. Either way, this is gonna add a lot to this year's box office and will be great for Pixar. But if it can add ~40m tickets to the overall year b.o. that will be a very important boost. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Tomorrow is the day! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Somehow I feel I'll meet a lot less resistance when I say 80-85 would've been a disappointing opening now that tracking seems to be pointing higher 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 4 minutes ago, JustLurking said: Somehow I feel I'll meet a lot less resistance when I say 80-85 would've been a disappointing opening now that tracking seems to be pointing higher Yeah, that weekend for the sequel to an original film that did $356M almost a decade ago would've been ass 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 7 minutes ago, JustLurking said: Somehow I feel I'll meet a lot less resistance when I say 80-85 would've been a disappointing opening now that tracking seems to be pointing higher It was still not an unreasonable goal to set for awhile, given not many trackers were much more bullish on the movie and the ongoing perception of Pixar and kids movies' reduced draw at the box office, not to mention the generally depressed mood of the industry the past year. Evidently a pre-Covid level of enthusiasm has manifested itself the past week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedorito Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 2 hours ago, JustLurking said: Somehow I feel I'll meet a lot less resistance when I say 80-85 would've been a disappointing opening now that tracking seems to be pointing higher I mean, I always thought matching the first one would just ok while 85-ish would be kinda disappointing, even if other animated sequels have opened lower than their predecessors. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AN9815 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 I am finally ready for some good Box Office numbers. April and May were horrendous to the point that I didn't even want to log in here. I hope Inside Out 2 breaks out and we have some nice runs to follow with A Quiet Place: Day One, Despicable Me 4, Twisters and Deadpol & Wolverine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 (edited) This bs again: Quote But in recent years, Pixar has found itself in a commercial and critical rut. Movies like Turning Red and Luca that were largely based on creators’ own childhoods didn’t seem to resonate with audiences the way that more universal tales like Toy Story and Monsters Inc. did. Edited June 11 by cannastop 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
