THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[Doffy]

Any guess on Second weekend drop after mon numbers?

[Tokugennumataka]

13 minutes ago, Doffy said:

Any guess on Second weekend drop after mon numbers?

55-60%

[Gavin Feng]

-60% drop is fine I guess? But it seems the final gross would miss $500M mark.

[Tokugennumataka]

Question remains if it can register a top 10 3rd weekend of all time. Will have to take out TGMs 51.9M for that. 

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

-60% drop is fine I guess? But it seems the final gross would miss $500M mark.

if it does 70M, likely it will reach 500. I am expecting anywhere from 66-70.

[Verrows]

I would hope the 2nd weekend would be strong given the smaller November weekdays.

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Question remains if it can register a top 10 3rd weekend of all time. Will have to take out TGMs 51.9M for that. 

I have it at 52M for now, so close enough to miss or hit.

[Juby]

9 hours ago, Brainbug said:

I just rewatched The Dark Knight and it isnt even funny how much better that movie is than literally everything that came out after it in the superhero genre.

 

This is no swing at other movies, dont get me wrong. Im just baffled right now, i didnt remember how perfect TDK is, its unfair honestly.

 

The Dark Knight is an amazing movie, but for me it will never be the #1 among superhero movies (it has some noticeable plotwholes and conveniences in its script and I still can't forigive Nolan for cutting this scene where Batman and Reachel are on a cab - the Joker should be running away from Wayne's party there!).

 

Shame You didn't re-watch Batman Begins - for me by far the best superhero movie of all time (or Paul Verhoeven's RoboCop - but it's not based on comics, just slightly inspired by Frank Miller's TDKR and Dredd character). It wasn't as successful as its sequels beacause it was just "another sh origin story" (after Superman: The Movie, Spider-Man, Daredevil, Hulk, The Mask of Zorro, etc.), villains in BB are not as strong as the Joker/Two-Face and Bane, and the editing of some dramatic scenes was not good (fight scenes, Wayne's murderer), but the script/plot is close to perfect and the mood of Gotham / Batman's theatricality is by far the best in this one. +my favourite Batman's suit.

 

WF - $181.3m. I think my $450m prediction is not a hard target now, even $500m is achiavable after such opening.

 

 

[Legion Again]

27 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Question remains if it can register a top 10 3rd weekend of all time. Will have to take out TGMs 51.9M for that. 

Never much chance. Maybe with holiday effect+ weak other releases

[charlie Jatinder]

I recently rewatched TDK trilogy. It's solid minus TDKR 3rd act which goes in some other direction, though still solid piece of cinema. 

 

Batman Begins was the one that improved for me. TDK remained as a solid film, never had it in best films ever list. Again the problem remained 3rd act. Top 5 CBMs may be, Top 10 surely.

Edited November 15, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[lorddemaxus]

TDKR is the best Nolan Batman. I've said this before but no superhero film since has felt tangibly massive in scale.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Sat, sun, and now Mon like 3-6% above rag adjusted. Reception seems similar too, don't expect much deviation until rag's vet bump

what sort of adj you using?

 

I suppose Ragnarok would have like 10.5-10.75 ATP. BP2 probably ~12.5.

[Factcheck]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

what sort of adj you using?

 

I suppose Ragnarok would have like 10.5-10.75 ATP. BP2 probably ~12.5.

.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Factcheck

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

what sort of adj you using?

 

I suppose Ragnarok would have like 10.5-10.75 ATP. BP2 probably ~12.5.

 

3 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

Tickets prices have increased by 23% since BP1, so if the ATP of WF is 12.5 then that of Ragnarok would be $9.6.

I was using 22% since rag, ~ 10.24.  

 

Not sure what math you're doing factcheck -- if you assume rag and bp1 similar, meaning 23% since rag, that would be 12.5 for WF ->10.16

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

Tickets prices have increased by 23% since BP1, so if the ATP of WF is 12.5 then that of Ragnarok would be $9.6.

I don't know where this 23% is coming from, but I would expect Ragnarok ATP around $10.5 ish.

[Factcheck]

2 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

 

I was using 22% since rag, ~ 10.24.  

 

Not sure what math you're doing factcheck -- if you assume rag and bp1 similar, meaning 23% since rag, that would be 12.5 for WF ->10.16

Yup wrong math

[Factcheck]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't know where this 23% is coming from, but I would expect Ragnarok ATP around $10.5 ish.

23% increase since BP1 was reported by BOP.

10.2+23%= 12.5

Edited November 15, 2022 by Factcheck

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

23% increase since BP1 was reported by BOP.

10.2+23%= 12.5

Neat that the BOP reported lines up so close to what I was using. (Technically I had 2% 2017 to 2019 and 20% 2019 to present but felt it was likely a smidge conservative)

[Krissykins]

As some mentioned The Dark Knight, I did notice yesterday that Letterboxd posted their highest rated films of all time and The Dark Knight was the only live action superhero film in the top 20. 
 

I think it’s a favourite film for a lot of people.
 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

40 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

23% increase since BP1 was reported by BOP.

10.2+23%= 12.5

@Shawn what were you basing that on?