Weekdays Thread (12/19-22) | Avatar: The Way of 14.5 | Mon 16.2, Tue 18.3, Wed 14.3, Thu 14.5| Puss 3.2 OD | Check In For Your Hourly Weather Update

[Grebacio]

4 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Also we need some great animation break outs like zootopia or Frozen cause even animation is now mostly franchise,  rest just doesn't work much.

I got the feeling Migration will be a breakout hit. Not at Zootopia/Frozen levels but still a respectable 200M Dom / 550M WW

[JWR]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

I mean Illumination does well overseas but it’s plausible it plays more like Lego Movie/Sonic/Grinch overseas with most of the chatter is from America. Spring is a different beast than summer too but that didn’t stop Zootopia for instance but that’s more of a exception rather than the norm.

 

Zootopia had crazy strong legs looking back.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

With how Puss in Boots 2's revenue is looking I'm thinking Paramount will shift Sonic 3 to February 2025. They were no doubt monitoring Puss's performance very closely in order to decide on a final date for their family tentpole. Now that Puss isn't proving to be all that, they'll get out of Avatar's way and reuse the February slot of the first film. I kind of hope they do honestly, because here in Turkey it's currently set to come out a month after its US release in order to take advantage of our K12 winter break. If this proposed delay means a simultaneous release, then I'm all for it.

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Based on how huge this storm actually is, I'm willing to lower my Thu expectations to 11M. Hopefully Friday stays flat, but may go below 10M and Sat looks definitely like sub 10M. 

Thu - 11M

Fri - 11M (+0%, -79%)

Sat - 7.5M (-32%, -84%)

Sun - 17.5M (+133%, -52%)

36M weekend (-73%)

 

 

This is an overreaction. The numbers aren't going to be that bad.

[reddevil19]

54 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Miles Morales as Spider-Man is today almost as popular as Peter Parker thanks to Into the Spider-Verse and the PS4 and PS5 games. Across the Spider-Verse will be the third Spider-Man film to make it over $1B. 

Hmm. I loved Into The Spider-Verse (favourite Spidey movie, easy top 3 superhero flick for me), but no, he's nowhere near close in terms of popularity. Into the Spider-Verse itself wasn't a huge hit, though it's grown in its reach after the initial run, and the game was a glorified DLC that - while very big in terms of sheer dollars - is hard to judge, considering it basically played as an extension of the main game and thereby it can be argued it was bought by a portion of the much larger fanbase (who love Spidey but also the main game, which was a ton of fun and very well-received), rather than showing an increase in popularity.

 

I would love it for Spider-Verse 2 to be as successful as you say, but I think its OS performance will not be brilliant, and domestic will be great, but not what you might be expecting. Thinking 250 DOM and 300 OS.

Edited December 22, 2022 by reddevil19

[BadOlCatSylvester]

6 minutes ago, YM! said:

If this problem is to be fixed, stop putting in 45 windowing for animation and put in 120 day windows for streaming. 120 days is much tougher for families to wait out but there’s no way the studios do this.

Families will have no problem waiting as long as they need to. There's plenty of competition for kids' entertainment these days. The genie's out of the bottle, and no amount of window expansions will put it back in there.

[Tokugennumataka]

1 minute ago, XXR Also in Boots said:

 

This is an overreaction. The numbers aren't going to be that bad.

Prolly but setting a baseline as a worst case scenario. Still think 45-50M is the likely range. Can't really be sure when one-third of the country's population is being affected. 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

With how Puss in Boots 2's revenue is looking I'm thinking Paramount will shift Sonic 3 to February 2025. They were no doubt monitoring Puss's performance very closely in order to decide on a final date for their family tentpole. Now that Puss isn't proving to be all that, they'll get out of Avatar's way and reuse the February slot of the first film. I kind of hope they do honestly, because here in Turkey it's currently set to come out a month after its US release in order to take advantage of our K12 winter break. If this proposed delay means a simultaneous release, then I'm all for it.

Yes, Sonic 3 is immediately doomed despite its a proven franchise, Puss in Boots 11 year hiatus and being a spin-off and the fact it’s likely Avathree will drop off some from 2. Dude, miss me with that bullshit.

[Madhuvan]

7 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

I got the feeling Migration will be a breakout hit. Not at Zootopia/Frozen levels but still a respectable 200M Dom / 550M WW

Hopefully yes.

 

Animation performance at box office is most concerning to me.

 

And yes I blame Disney a lot for that.

 

Encanto , Luca and Soul would have done actually good to great on box office if Disney+ window and advertisements were not there.

 

Disney giving up on 3 major films really set animation back.

[reddevil19]

Just now seeing some of the takes regarding Mario. Are they for real? Like, is the expectation for it to actually be HUGE? DM-Minions huge? I honestly have no idea so genuinely curious. I saw the trailer twice in cinemas (packed audiences, with families, once for Black Panther and the other Black Adam) and each time the response was tepid at best. I honestly thought 200 DOM/600 WW as the optimistic scenario, but with a much lower floor, depending on how well any stupid cutesy side characters get received.

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Families will have no problem waiting as long as they need to. There's plenty of competition for kids' entertainment these days. The genie's out of the bottle, and no amount of window expansions will put it back in there.

Yes it’ll be like 2016-19 in which yes, the majority did middling but you can build Pixar and WDAS back up to events, you just need to retrain the GA.

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

Just now seeing some of the takes regarding Mario. Are they for real? Like, is the expectation for it to actually be HUGE? DM-Minions huge? I honestly have no idea so genuinely curious. I saw the trailer twice in cinemas (packed audiences, with families, once for Black Panther and the other Black Adam) and each time the response was tepid at best. I honestly thought 200 DOM/600 WW as the optimistic scenario, but with a much lower floor, depending on how well any stupid cutesy side characters get received.

 

There are a lot of people who think it will be Rise of Gru size or bigger. The idea being that Mario is a bigger/more nostalgic property than Sonic and it's a full animation which typically does better than crossover animation. As of now I'm on the 275/750 train. 

 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

Just now seeing some of the takes regarding Mario. Are they for real? Like, is the expectation for it to actually be HUGE? DM-Minions huge? I honestly have no idea so genuinely curious. I saw the trailer twice in cinemas (packed audiences, with families, once for Black Panther and the other Black Adam) and each time the response was tepid at best. I honestly thought 200 DOM/600 WW as the optimistic scenario, but with a much lower floor, depending on how well any stupid cutesy side characters get received.

Super Mario is incredibly popular. More popular than Sonic, even if I historically love Sonic more. Not only looks good, but it seems like actual fans are pleased. I do think that Super Mario Bros and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse are films to observe box office wise next year.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

Just now seeing some of the takes regarding Mario. Are they for real? Like, is the expectation for it to actually be HUGE? DM-Minions huge? I honestly have no idea so genuinely curious. I saw the trailer twice in cinemas (packed audiences, with families, once for Black Panther and the other Black Adam) and each time the response was tepid at best. I honestly thought 200 DOM/600 WW as the optimistic scenario, but with a much lower floor, depending on how well any stupid cutesy side characters get received.

It's gonna be annoying when it makes a perfectly fine total between $150-200M total and there will be handwringing over why it never approached unrealistically high expectations.

[Madhuvan]

4 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Just now seeing some of the takes regarding Mario. Are they for real? Like, is the expectation for it to actually be HUGE? DM-Minions huge? I honestly have no idea so genuinely curious. I saw the trailer twice in cinemas (packed audiences, with families, once for Black Panther and the other Black Adam) and each time the response was tepid at best. I honestly thought 200 DOM/600 WW as the optimistic scenario, but with a much lower floor, depending on how well any stupid cutesy side characters get received.

I think people are basing it on nostalgia factor.

 

I mean Mario is big pop culture icon. But so was Pikachu so we will see

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, XXR Also in Boots said:

 

There are a lot of people who think it will be Rise of Gru size or bigger. The idea being that Mario is a bigger/more nostalgic property than Sonic and it's a full animation which typically does better than crossover animation. As of now I'm on the 275/750 train. 

 

Wow, 2nd biggest dom ow of all time 

[Grebacio]

PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH (2022)

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's gonna be annoying when it makes a perfectly fine total between $150-200M total and there will be handwringing over why it never approached unrealistically high expectations.

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, Grebacio said:

PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH (2022)

This has become one of my most anticipated films that I look forward to watch on streaming.

[Grebacio]