Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Legion in Boots said:

Some people are really starting to get carried away with this and it's... just not advisable.   

 

Maybe it will leg pretty nicely for here (to, what, 650? still not that mind-blowing) and it will reflect well on those who were higher. 

 

Maybe it'll end below tros and reflect well on those who were lower. 

 

Trying to claim the former case prematurely probably won't be fun times if it blows up in your face 🤷‍♂️

Like all the doomposts making conclusions after it's OW? I can't see the difference really. 

 

And other than Sheldon i'm not seeing anyone here actively predicting anything beyond those 550-600M range which is the reasonable expectation. We're just talking about possibilities. 

 

 

 

 

[Jonan23]

7 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

Well i picked the first 4 eps vs the first movie of the trilogy first to have comperable runtime and also cause they arent centered towards large climactic battles but either way i think my point still stands if you pick the last 4 eps of a GoT season that include some climactic spectacle and Return of the King or the Two Towers

But what about Rings of Power 😎

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

Or maybe it’s just that the RO comp is imperfect, and those deviations are magnified on specific days like Tue/Sat/Sun & holidays, while the broader trendline has/will only shift slightly 

 

I agree with this.

 

I'm sitting here remembering Wakanda did well on the Thanksgiving holiday just a few weeks ago, had no competition, and then just had the legs fall out of it anyway...

 

Folks went as families and groups to see it once during the holidays and then stopped going pretty much at all.

 

This weekend says families and groups are doing their annual sojourn.  Jan 4 says whether anyone else will keep going afterwards...(I skipped Jan 3 b/c all discount days are back, and Jan 2 is still a holiday)...

[Sheldon Cr]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Well i always said it would slowly dawn on them as the run went on.

 

Its just copium coming out, as you can see in some of the replies to my posts in the past 30mins or so.

Stuart no need to defend our A2 isn't done while us fans out there are breathing

Let's rejoice!!. 

Especially if it's starts to look like beyond Avatar domestic Run.

What's funny is folks were predicting No chance at Nwh and Ds2 over Avatar.

Or black adam will be the bigger lol. While we all stayed consistent we will hit 2b. Now with os territories super performing making up for Japan(.which is bouncing back) And China looking to provide 200-250m. That 2.3-2.5b+ looking very very doable.

So us Avatar believers definitely came out better than some of the predicts we seen here an on the web. Black Adam and Ds2 over Avatar2 always gave me a chuckle tho.

 

 

 

Meanwhile those saying no chance at Maverick domestically or WW

Time is almost 

 

.....

 

 

 

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:

 

Good number but definitely not mind blowing. We just had a film do $715M 6 months ago and another do $800M+ a year ago. 

 

Yes and A2 is going to blow past one of them WW, and probably beat the other one too.

 

WW is the most important thing, not one paticular market. At least for me anyway.

[Cooper Legion]

8 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

650mil US wouldnt be mindblowing?, in this current climate?.

Yeah, I mean, it's a comfortable top 3 post pandemic finish, but only 3rd place in ~18 month period. Not much competition in those 18 months either. Tickets sold not that high. Below the low end of BOP's final long range range. 

 

 

8 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Still yes i get what you're saying, and its fair about waiting. But waiting is what us loonies always said (in terms of legs).

Happy to wait, I am not saying it can't go well just that there's not that much new data to support that it definitely will.

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by Legion in Boots

[Nero]

25 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah nobody said Avatar fans was eating humble pie, but i can remember quite a few treating everyone that didn't buy the doomposts in their projections as lunatics, which is kinda worse. 

 

 

I think almost all had predicted the movie doing $500M+ domestic and easily win the year WW. And many were arguing and going with trends that how huge breakout movie sequels come down. The doom posts that you are referring are perception of Avatar fans that had huge expectations which didn't match. Others were simply going by the data and trends.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

Yes but what people dont say about those storm ravaged couple of days last week is that A2 held really well compared to the other films in the Top 10.

In fact on Thursday, when the storms hit hard, every film in thre Top 20 dropped except A2 which had a slight gain.

So even on those stormy ridden days, A2 was still showing signs of good wom anfd legs.

 

You aren't wrong, but also 4 of the drops in the top ten were -9% or less.  It's not like everything fell off the cliff.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Yes and A2 is going to blow past one of them WW, and probably beat the other one too.

 

But we're talking about DOM and your comment about 650M was about DOM 🤣 Now that's some fancy goalpost moving lmao

[Nero]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Like all the doomposts making conclusions after it's OW? I can't see the difference really. 

 

And other than Sheldon i'm not seeing anyone here actively predicting anything beyond those 550-600M range which is the reasonable expectation. We're just talking about possibilities. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah and how are others doom posting then? Pretty sure majority have it doing in that range?

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Yes and A2 is going to blow past one of them WW, and probably beat the other one too.

 

WW is the most important thing, not one paticular market. At least for me anyway.

Ww is most important for all. But the folks here may have counted us out on the domestic front.

Cameron power looks to be heating up

 

" Everything Changed!"

 

 

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, Nero said:

I think almost all had predicted the movie doing $500M+ domestic and easily win the year WW. And many were arguing and going with trends that how huge breakout movie sequels come down. The doom posts that you are referring are perception of Avatar fans that had huge expectations which didn't match. Others were simply going by the data and trends.

There were a lot of people predicting under 500mil, before and after the OW. Someone even predicted 384mil US.

And there were also some that predicted under TGM WW. Even yesterday someone was tlaking about it, although you can never tell on here who is being serious and who is baiting.

[Nero]

34 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Except those of you who predicted $190m opening weekend....

The revisionist theory is too much lmao

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

And there were also a lot of people crowing at Tue as the start of new upward trend, when it immediately dove back down to ~95% of RO the following day (and lower on Thu/Fri, though winter storm impacted)

 

Most of the rational analysis has been far less swingy, like so 

 

 

That's fair 

 

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

This is what I'm seeing:

 

Avatar fans over-estimated opening weekend and second weekend.  Never mind that we thought it would make more, it's better than what the haters predicted, so why are you picking on us?!

 

That is frustrating.  

 

I'm not picking anyone, i just said everytime someone see some members happy with the numbers and find a way to say how it's supposed to be higher based on a few Avatar fans absurd expectations is frustrating. 

 

The vibe this sends is that we can't celebrate and make our predictions without have to be remembered how this is still a disappointment because someone else said 3B is locked.

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:

 

But we're talking about DOM and your comment about 650M was about DOM 🤣 Now that's some fancy goalpost moving lmao

Lets wait on this week and next. A2 may be making way over 650m domestic brother Xx.

🦝😉

[Cap]

32 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

Hope to not have to deal with "the scrip is bad,  movie is to long, James Cameron dont know, he needs to reduce 30 minutes or more of the movie, blah blah" people ANYMORE. I defend your right to doubt the performance (despite you full knowing this movie is on track to do well), but not the quality wich is great with Cameron Seal Of quality. Right Ozy? 

All of those things can be true, and people could go see the movie anyway.

We forget that the real reason movie theaters are never going to truly “die”, is they’re a social event. People go together. People go to get out of the house.

 

I’m not going to Avatar tomorrow because I want to. I’m going because my aunt, who takes care of my 94 year old grandmother 24/7, needs to get out of the house for three hours cause she’s feeling overwhelmed. 

 

So, I’m gonna suck it up and go with her, despite the fact I know she’s gonna fall asleep halfway through. Cause she falls asleep halfway through every movie now.

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:

 

But we're talking about DOM and your comment about 650M was about DOM 🤣 Now that's some fancy goalpost moving lmao

How am i moving goalposts XXR?. I have said many times on here, which i'm certain you have seen, that i dont care about individual markets, i only care about the WW number. Sure i would love A2 to alo be gigantic in the US, but i dont care as long as WW is huge.

Its the none fans that are holding onto things like individual markets.

[Sheldon Cr]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

There were a lot of people predicting under 500mil, before and after the OW. Someone even predicted 384mil US.

And there were also some that predicted under TGM WW. Even yesterday someone was tlaking about it, although you can never tell on here who is being serious and who is baiting.

Lol the black adam and Ds2 were some of the worst bait and laughable predicts. I think some were serious on Ds2 vs avatar 2 though 😂 

 

 

[Nero]

27 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This "oh but some people predict 200M OW ... oh but there was loonies predicting 3B" argument to keep downplaying our excitement about the numbers we're getting is kinda frustrating to read. 

 

I remember quite a lot of posts talking about how it's gonna have difficult to surpass TGM worldwide gross, or that will have to fight to match JW gross. Still i'm not seeing anyone here using these few outliers predictions to make generalizations.  

Pretty sure that was mainly because of @Brainbug lol