Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

600mil surely has to be near certain at this point.

No not at all. Possible, yes. 

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

What happens if you add in Rogue One?

 

it's kinda pretty how synced r1 and a2 are

 

tho you can see they about to intersect, poor r1 couldn't hold on

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Verrows]

18 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

Back in January first week this year, I wonder how many thought NWH would have poor legs after holidays based on how similar both Rogue One and NWH weekdays were in that week..total 3rd week numbers were also very similar for both Rogue One, NWH....fast forward couple of months, NWH ends up collecting more than double of what Rogue One did for rest of run ($170M vs $76M). What this tells me is NWH is a better comparison for Avatar2 legs than Rogue One as both released in post-pandemic era and both had very little competition in January which for me seems like a lot more critical factor here for legs. 

 

Jan Week1 Weekdays:

Tuesday:

NoWayHome - $5.9M

Rogue One    - $6.2M

 

Wednesday:

NoWayHome - $4.4M

Rogue One    - $4.2M

 

Thursday:

NoWayHome - $3.9M

Rogue One    - $3.9M

 

Overall 3rd Week:

NoWayHome - $78M

Rogue One    - $79M

 

You're right in general about using NWH as a better comparison than Rogue One, but Avatar is going to have a little more competition. I feel like January is going to be a smidge better than last year, even if it's still barren overall, and February is no contest. The Presidents' Day weekend marquee movie of February this year (Quantumania) will do at the absolute least double what Uncharted did last year and the month is a much more filled out than February 2022 was.

[Dragoncaine]

17 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Final Tuesday is $24.13m you love to see it!

Nice! Source?

[IronJimbo]

@Deep Wang

 

 

how long can A2 hold? will it die in Jan with R1... I don't think so myself

 

 

[Jiffy]

1 minute ago, Dragoncaine said:

Nice! Source?

the-numbers

[Jiffy]

8 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

After the OW of both AVATAR films, A2 was 57mil ahead.

After the 4 day Christmas 2nd weekend, A2 is 54mil ahead.

Opening that much more and having the lead diminish (rather than grow) after 2nd weekend illustrates the faster rate of depreciation, however. Although A1 benefitted from more favorable schedule for first set of weekdays.

[Alexdube]

11 minutes ago, theghostofmarv said:

I'm not basing it on my friend group at all. RT Verified Audience, Letterboxd, IMDb. Cinemascore, etc. are all higher for TGM. I wish they weren't, but they are. If it turns out that TWOW has 300m+ domestic left in the tank after January 3rd I will *personally* buy you a beer, and I will be very happy to do so.

One thing you need to consider is demographics. Even if TGM has better WOM, the range of people its targeting is certainly more narrow than A2. So A2 has more room to grow, it's just a question of how much the movie will tap into that potential

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

After the OW of both AVATAR films, A2 was 57mil ahead.

After the 4 day Christmas 2nd weekend, A2 is 54mil ahead.

 

Now i'm not saying that means A2 is going to finish 50mil ahead of the orig AVATAR and gross 800mil. I'm not even saying it means it will gross 700mil, but I AM struggling to see how it will miss 600mil when its currently matching pace with the orig film.

Obviously the chance of a sequel matching the same drops and holds as the fist film through its entire run is not really feesable, but at the same time we are talking a 200mil split for A2 to miss 600mil, when at the moment its basically matcing the first film.

 

I really do wonder if 700mil is in play here. 600mil surely has to be near certain at this point.

 

The flip side is that it was $21M behind Rogue One for opening weekend. It's currently $23M behind Rogue One after 12 days. Not really making up ground from Day 3 to Day 12. It's fair to ask the question of whether the movie can make it to $600+ million. It's not locked to happen. $700 million is even more difficult. Rogue One dropped hard after the holidays, so that's a good opportunity for Avatar 2 to start gaining the ground needed to reach a 600+ total. Even with significantly better legs than Rogue One, it can still finish around $550M to $580M. It has to first overcome the current $23M gap with Rogue One to get on pace for a finish above $532M. 

[Deep Wang]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

@Deep Wang

 

 

how long can A2 hold? will it die in Jan with R1... I don't think so myself

 

 

 

That's my point.  You were zoomed in on first part with only two movies to make A2 look like it was doing great in comparison to the first, lol.

[upriser7]

6 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Nice! Source?

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Puss 2 is so good. Really solid story, hits the emotions well, nice performances. Really hope it continues to leg out.

[Mr Roark]

Hopefully Disney won’t put it on D+ before the Oscars.

[Verrows]

1 minute ago, Mr Roark said:

Hopefully Disney won’t put it on D+ before the Oscars.

Disney?

[Verrows]

An identical Wednesday drop to Rogue One"s (-20%) gives it $19.3M. Let's see if it drops a little more to "course correct" or not.

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Disney?

 

You did not read about Disney buying Universal?

[Mr Roark]

4 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Disney?

Disney bought 20th century.

[stuart360]

Guys just going off topic a touch. Why did Fox drop the 'Fox' part?, i totaly was out of the loop when that happened.

Its like a bit of history being lost.

[WittyUsername]

I’m feeling a little better about Avatar crossing $600 million than I was a week ago.

Edited December 28, 2022 by WittyUsername

[Verrows]

7 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

Disney bought 20th century.

Okay so you're talking about Avatar. I thought you were talking about Puss in Boots because the post right before yours was talking about it.