Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Has a third weekend increase over the 2nd ever happened for anything over the $50m mark? 
 

I know A1 came close, but not quite. 

Not really but some example may worth noting such as Jumanji: TNL that went up 33% in 3rd weekend.

 

I still feel amazed by how Jumanji "steal" the holiday bump from the last two SW movies after bad WOM kicked in. 

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Well this is exciting then. I’d go with just a very small decrease, but certainly think increase is totally possible. 

 

Looks like Jumanji (2017) hit $50M Dec 29-31 after $36.2M Dec 22-24. Of course the calendar makes that wonky since CE was on Sunday. That appears to be the biggest 2nd weekend to have an increase in the 3rd WE. 

[MovieMan89]

Barring a collapse this weekend, it should at least roughly match A1s 3rd weekend gross with a pretty huge lead on its total gross through the same point… definitely time to start talking about over A1 DOM as a possibility for the ceiling. 

[MovieMan89]

Or at least over A1s first run $749 haul 

[Jiffy]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Barring a collapse this weekend, it should at least roughly match A1s 3rd weekend gross with a pretty huge lead on its total gross through the same point… definitely time to start talking about over A1 DOM as a possibility for the ceiling. 

I don't see how it would match A1's third weekend. Even if it managed ~$60m though that would be huge.

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Barring a collapse this weekend, it should at least roughly match A1s 3rd weekend gross with a pretty huge lead on its total gross through the same point… definitely time to start talking about over A1 DOM as a possibility for the ceiling. 

 

I understand your enthusiasm and the holds are going really well. But the numbers are solid and good each day but hardly shocking and cause for a huge adjustment IMO.

55-60 3 day weekend is going to be good. It "might" go higher but its not something we can bank on. Might get to 600 (likely I think) but 700 really seems not very likely at all.

[Grebacio]

 

 

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

I don't see how it would match A1's third weekend. Even if it managed ~$60m though that would be huge.

 

Yea I don't see it A1-3 high. That's over 68M. I agree that it should be in the 60M range (+/- 2M). 

[XXR vs XXR]

@Alex SciChannel You got your 5.7M

[jedijake]

Had BPWF been THE Christmas release this year, I wonder if its numbers would have been similar to Ava2 (with the same OW that it got in November).

 

Still predicting that Ava2 will end up around $550m domestic. I think BPWF would have done the same if it were in Ava2's spot.

 

In other words, with the same release date, BPWF would still have the bigger OW, but Ava2 would clearly have a bigger multiplier, both ending up with roughly the same domestic total.

Edited December 30, 2022 by jedijake

[kayumanggi]

Wait for that $20 M estimate to become $20.48 or something later on. 😅

[Flamengo81]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

With a very big FOR FUN caveat:

 

 

26m (+30%)

 

not a projection of any sort, just a comp from the same chain vs the same time yesterday, since you asked

Okay... Let's us all calm down for a second. I know is not going to do that, but this hope is killing me lol

[Fanboy]

I'm thinking whatever Avatar 2 does today Sunday will probably match it or come very close. I'm hoping for 23M. I'm expecting New Years Eve drop to be bigger than Rogue One's due to runtime hurting evening shows but I think this is the sort of movie that will play really well New Years Day. 

[titanic2187]

I am also quite confident PIB2 would get 2nd weekend higher than OW type of run. 

[Reddroast]

28 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

So what happens when it misses 870m?  Will there be more excuses?

Yes. Because as proven time and time again.. IJ can't hold an L

[Flamengo81]

22 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

the fact that avatar 2 has almost as much gore as m3gan is hilarious 

America should make a 15 rating , R is really strong for a lot of movies

Yeah, I never understood the rating in the US, always seemed like it lacks some nuance. Over here we have "Livre" (apropriated for every age), 10, 12, 14, 16 and 18. For 10 until 16 is permited to anyone under the age recommended if the person is accompanied by an adult. 18 is 100% prohibitive for anyone under the age (in theory)...

[kayumanggi]

 

[Ronin46]

46 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

longer time for WOM to kick in for A2 in the American market due to 1) snowstorm and 2) 25-40yo males, 3) critics underselling it, 4) underpeforming opening

 

as I said a few days ago 870 is the new official estimate for A2 domestically. With the the 170m+ opening I was expecting a billie would have be ezpz. Unfornately marketing fell short for A2, should have been able to do more than $135m

 

I am glad the movie is well received for you and showing good legs OS and domestically. But these numbers your throwing around are not very realistic. Not trying to rain on your parade or start a flame war but just enjoy the numbers without trying to make it seem like you were right all along when quite frankly you were way off before and now.

[kayumanggi]

Friday numbers not included in the international totals above:

 

$5.4 M / $122.5 M / China

$3.4 M / $066.6 M / South Korea

 

Maoyan has again upped its final projection to a very specific $192.8 M in China 😅. I hope it crosses $200 M.

 

Also, the movie is now the biggest grossing movie of the pandemic in France and Italy.

 

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

I am glad the movie is well received for you and showing good legs OS and domestically. But these numbers your throwing around are not very realistic. Not trying to rain on your parade or start a flame war but just enjoy the numbers without trying to make it seem like you were right all along when quite frankly you were way off before and now.

not really just the opening weekend was off, we well on track. I've been saying since the beginning of time this movie will be all legs and get over 6x multipier for opening weekend.