Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[Grebacio]

Calling it now: over 700M, under TGM

[stuart360]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

It needs to make $190 M overseas this weekend to do that. It made $176.6 M last weekend.

I know i edited my post.

I had it in my head that TGM was at 1.408bil, not 1.488bil lol.

 

Still some time in the week it will be done.

Edited December 30, 2022 by stuart360

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

I know i edited my post.

I had it in my head that TGM was at 1.408bil, not 1.488bil lol.

 

I was referring to the crossing the $1 billion thing internationally by Sunday.

[Ronin46]

20.117M

[Fanboy]

If it does 60M this weekend then follows Rogue One legs exactly it ends up about 550M. It’s not impossible but very unlikey. I’d say 600M is about a 60% chance and 700M is still quite unlikely. Once we’re out of the holidays we will have a clearer idea. 
 

EDIt: Just realised my math was slightly off and 60M following Rogue One would get it to about $570M. It’s still in the realm of possibility it only does $55M this weekend and falls off a cliff, but I doubt it. 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Fanboy

[XXR & Friends]

$20,117,061

 

ATWOW Thursday actuals.

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I was referring to the crossing the $1 billion thing internationally by Sunday.

Well i said by the end of the 4 day weekend, which i believe.

I only said 'possibly' by the end of the 3 day weekend, and it is possible when its being averaging 50mil weekdays this week.

 

I mean even if the wekend and holiday Monday didnt rise at all over the weekdays this week, we would still be talking around 200mil.

Edited December 30, 2022 by stuart360

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Fanboy said:

If it does 60M this weekend than follows Rogue One legs exactly it ends up about 550M. It’s not impossible but very unlikey. I’d say 600M is about a 60% chance and 700M is still quite unlikely. Once we’re out of the holidays we will have a clearer idea. 

 

As of right now I'm thinking it'll do NWH post 3rd Monday numbers (so about $183M) +/- 10%

[adaros]

7 minutes ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

 

It won't beat NWH in your country, for one  

Won't be it domestically. Won't beat it in Mexico. Won't beat it in Russia. Probably a few other smaller markets as well. 

 

We still hope JC can end the war...

[Dale Cooper]

12 minutes ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

To reach $870M it would have to be +10% better than Avatar after 18 days. That isn't happening. I'd put under $550M as unlikely at this point this point but it's still far more likely than $870M. 

 

Sure, very, very, very unlikely. But here's some food for thought: after first week, both Avatar and The Way of Water have remarkably consistent compared to each other. Similar weekdays in the first week, similar Christmas eve, similar Christmas Day/Boxing Day, similar weekdays in second week, probably similar NYD performance. The first Avatar had limited 3D screens back in the day which probably made it a bit more backloaded than what it could have been, The Way of Water has instead limited IMAX/PLFs. If it keeps on following Avatar after holidays, it will end up with....840m. (now, I don't for a second think it will do this)

 

Anyway, I'd say unless there's some external factors impacting box office it cannot miss 550m.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Dale Cooper

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

The thing about IronJimbo's prediction is that, while clearly extremely optimistic, it is more probably than some of the predictions still thrown around in here. For example, I'd think there's clearly a higher probability it hits 870m than finishes at 550m, because it's basically 0% chance for that barring some external factors.

There is clearly (bordering on absurdly) not

 

To make this as easy to digest as possible: if Avatwo would to track exactly like the original Avatar from this point forward, it would still "only" finish at around $825M. Meanwhile, for the highest grossing films at the turn of the calendar each year since 2011 (11 titles), only 2 (maybe 3) would offer a trajectory that would wind up above $550M (TFA and NWH, that latter being a bit COVID skewed and is best not to use as a comp, with the third being perhaps MI: Ghost Protocol depending on how high this next week goes)

 

Be excited about the recent upswing by all means, but let's please try to keep some perspective here

 

[ando]

Wakanda Forever  really getting that holiday coin

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, ando said:

Wakanda Forever  really getting that holiday coin

 

Is this hitting 450M now? That would be great.

[kayumanggi]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Well i said by the end of the 4 day weekend, which i believe.

I only said 'possibly' by the end of the 3 day weekend, and it is possible when its being averaging 50mil weekdays this week.

 

I actually think it's possible based on the past few dailies. What I can't wrap my head around is the idea that it could increase from last weekend. That would be crazy.

[Ronin46]

8 minutes ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

$23,117,061

 

ATWOW Thursday actuals.

 

Wow.

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Is this hitting 450M now? That would be great.

 

Very likely. Same path as Doctor Strange from here out gets it over 455. 

[stuart360]

I think the 550mil predections are just as silly at 800mil ones, just on the opposite end.

 

I mean the film is probably going to be around 440mil by the end of the 4 day wekend. Some of you really think its weekly drops are going to be so hard that it will only make another 110mil or so?

Edited December 30, 2022 by stuart360

[Elessar]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I actually think it's possible based on the past few dailies. What I can't wrap my head around is the idea that it could increase from last weekend. That would be crazy.

 

I believe it's not that unusual for movies to increase on the last weekend of the year overseas with the same calendar setup. 

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I actually think it's possible based on the past few dailies. What I can't wrap my head around is the idea that it could increase from last weekend. That would be crazy.

No i actually agree with you there, its weird, but why would the weekend days, and holiday Monday, be LOWER than this weeks weekdays?.

[Andreas]

13 minutes ago, XXR M37's Club Is Dead said:

$20,117,061

 

ATWOW Thursday actuals.

Huge $97.1M Mon-Thur.