Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

that's great. Now some posters will say how this isn't that good of a number for Avatar2

 

its not good

 

 

its great

[Fanboy]

$40M 4th weekend is locked and $45M is the target if Thursday is over $7M. From $7M flat, Rogue One Thursday multiplier gets it to 39.6M and NWH gets it to 58.15M!! Avatar gets it to $57.8M!! The actual number is almost definitely gonna be somewhere in between that. If you go bang in the middle you still get 48.7M-48.9M. TGM is toast. 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Fanboy

[interiorgatordecorator]

17 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Now that we’re a bit further into the evening I can say that just based on the numbers right now, there is a small chance that….

 

  Reveal hidden contents

…today is flat or slightly increases from Wednesday 😮

 

I would still bet on a decrease if I had to make a prediction but maybe only 3-5%? 
 

It’s fairly impressive.

 

 

lol

 

[MikeQ]

14 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Now that we’re a bit further into the evening I can say that just based on the numbers right now, there is a small chance that….

 

  Hide contents

…today is flat or slightly increases from Wednesday 😮

 

I would still bet on a decrease if I had to make a prediction but maybe only 3-5%? 
 

It’s fairly impressive.

 

 

A 3-5% decrease would be excellent, and cap off a terrific week for Way of Water. It also continues to consistently perform better than Rogue One, even with the same calendar configuration, which is a really great sign for longevity post-holidays.

 

This would mean even with Rogue One Fri/Sat/Sun pattern, it is looking at $40+ million.

 

I guess the question is how much does it outperform Rogue One's weekend pattern - and namely, how big will the Friday jump be (or not be)? That's the big question mark for me. Are the runtime and PLF factors pushing more business to during the week, or is it more likely to jump higher on the weekend because of this? 🤔

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

[Flip]

If an increase happens then $50+ million is a genuine possibility 

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, MikeQ said:

Are the runtime and PLF factors pushing more business to during the week, or is it more likely to jump higher on the weekend because of this? 🤔

Relative to R1 there should be more weekend business vs weekday. While I don’t believe there’s any shot of an NWH-like Thurs/WE multiplier I do think a 6-6.5x Thursday is likely. If I had to pick a number today I’d go with 44 for the weekend.

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Relative to R1 there should be more weekend business vs weekday. While I don’t believe there’s any shot of an NWH-like Thurs/WE multiplier I do think a 6-6.5x Thursday is likely. If I had to pick a number today I’d go with 44 for the weekend.

 

what headline does deadline go with if/when the weekend is almost double what they initially forecasted?

[Dragoncaine]

26 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

Now that we’re a bit further into the evening I can say that just based on the numbers right now, there is a small chance that….

 

  Hide contents

…today is flat or slightly increases from Wednesday 😮

 

I would still bet on a decrease if I had to make a prediction but maybe only 3-5%? 
 

It’s fairly impressive.

 

Oh okay so this weekend is about to go hard between A2 and M3gan

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, Flip said:

If an increase happens then $50+ million is a genuine possibility 

If it hit 50mil then some poeple would have to accept that TGM is probably gone, and possibly even the orig AVATAR, as A2 will of matched the 4th weekend of the first film, while being around 85mil ahead of it at the same point of its run.

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

If it hit 50mil then some poeple would have to accept that TGM is probably gone, and possibly even the orig AVATAR, as A2 will of matched the 4th weekend of the first film, while being around 85mil ahead of it at the same point of its run.

 

and TGM also had a fathers day boost 

[nydedan]

what are the records for 4th thursday and the first thursday of January respectively?

[interiorgatordecorator]

7 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

 M3gan

 

anything that points to it going past 25?

[grey ghost]

Any parking lot reports for M3gan? 

[Sophia Jane]

if this weekend DOM hold 50m ,I think the movie will beating NWH WW Next week

Edited January 6, 2023 by Bruce

[kayumanggi]

I want AVATAR: The Way of Water to make $50 M and M3gan to make $30 M. 🙂

[Fanboy]

7 minutes ago, nydedan said:

what are the records for 4th thursday and the first thursday of January respectively?

If you mean 3rd Thursday, A2 has no chance at 1st but has a shot a taking 2nd place from The Incredibles, should definitely land in top 5 and if these early estimates hold up should beat Jumunji to have the biggest first Thursday of January. 

1	Dec 29, 2005	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, t…	$8,875,130	3,853	$2,303	$191,991,322
2	Jul 5, 2018	Incredibles 2	$7,171,034	4,410	$1,626	$475,361,414
3	Jul 2, 2015	Jurassic World	$6,938,650	3,802	$1,825	$527,300,955
4	Jan 2, 2020	Jumanji: The Next Level	$6,702,524	4,227	$1,586	$209,706,405
5	Jun 16, 2022	Top Gun: Maverick	$6,202,642	4,262	$1,455	$422,167,545
6	Jan 7, 2010	Avatar	$6,094,445	3,461	$1,761	$380,540,297
7	Jan 7, 2016	Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens	$5,972,359	4,134	$1,445	$770,381,043
8	Jul 7, 2016	Finding Dory	$5,857,141	4,305	$1,361	$402,229,243
9	Nov 27, 2003	Elf	$5,700,000	3,202	$1,780	$108,000,000
10	Jul 8, 2010	Toy Story 3	$5,147,053	4,028	$1,278	$318,224,899

[XXR & Friends]

11 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

anything that points to it going past 25?

Yea previews look to be in the 2.5-3M range and it should do around 10x previews.

[Fanboy]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

I want AVATAR: The Way of Water to make $50 M and M3gan to make $30 M. 🙂

If this happens both these movies might save January weekends just from holdover gross. 

[aabattery]

[oenri]

1 hour ago, oenri said:

People are underestimating this movie again. The weekend can absolutely go 45M+, this can very well surpass Top Gun Domestic.

 

Opening weekend, people said this movie was going to underperform. A few days post weekend, they said it was going to perform like RO and a normal blockbuster. And now, just because of week day numbers, they will underestimate James Cameron and will be proven wrong with the upcoming weekend numbers, rise and repeat.

I was 100% right