M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I didn't even believe in $100M because the holidays are done. I wonder which markets are holding very well. France and Germany comes to mind first.

This is def going to finsih with a similar 74/26 split between domestic and international, just like the first film.

 

Its crazy really because all the shit i got for my 2.5bil total prediction, especially after the OW, and i wouldnt be surprised if it ends up right at that point. All with a massively reduced China too.

Crazy.

Edited January 8, 2023 by stuart360

[upriser7]

I wouldn't be surprised if Overseas actuals come in higher than studio estimates. They have China at $188M when cumulative number after Sunday actuals is $191M

[SchumacherFTW]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

I'm not really following, you're upset that I'm saying cinema isn't back to pre-covid strength? it isn't though. Could it be you're thinking only domestic? Perhaps it's that.

Genuinely, the only thing stopping 2019 levels of overall box office are the lack of movies, that's pretty plain to see Jimbo. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

It's going to end #3 worldwide, and #5 domestic.

 

 

3rd dom and 3rd ww would have been nice 

 

but thats still a great result

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

This is def going to finsih with a similar 74/26 split between domestic and international, just like the first film.

 

Its crazy really because all the shit i got for my 2.5bil total, especially after the OW, and i wouldnt be surprised if it ends up right at that point. All with a massively reduced China too.

Crazy.

 

Just imagine the performance without a pandemic. Crazy indeed.

[upriser7]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I didn't even believe in $100M because the holidays are done. I wonder which markets are holding very well. France and Germany comes to mind first.

Spain had an amazing weekend of 4.8M Euros (+60% over last weekend).. someone in the Spain box-office thread said that this possibly could be either highest 4th weekend of all time or 2nd just behind Avatar1

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Genuinely, the only thing stopping 2019 levels of overall box office are the lack of movies, that's pretty plain to see Jimbo. 

 

thats just nato cope

[kayumanggi]

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

A fantastic weekend for Avatar 2, Megan, Puss in Boots 2 and exhibition as a whole. Again, three different tentpoles pulling in large audiences instead of one mega-blockbuster smothering everything else to death like what No Way Home did last year is far healthier for the industry. Of course, the ridiculously crowded summer season we'll have this year will be the ultimate test, but this weekend is a good sign.

[kayumanggi]

 

[M37]

12 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

That’s not the question I think we should be asking.

 

The question I’m asking is: is COVID likely to affect people’s ability &/or decision making about going to the movies?

 

My answer: not more than any number of respiratory viruses that prevented people from seeing movies every year. 

 

With the exception of China, of course.

That’s not the relevant dynamic though. People aren’t skipping theaters because of fear of COVID, but that the necessary response to the pandemic - staying at home - changed people’s behavior to some degree permanently (IMO, accelerating a shift that was coming in 5-10 years anyway). They got used to streaming, and now the time and cost commitment of theaters is less attractive 

 

 

[upriser7]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Genuinely, the only thing stopping 2019 levels of overall box office are the lack of movies, that's pretty plain to see Jimbo. 

I don't agree..that might be true in UK but definitely not true in US. Post-covid, a certain section of people have significantly reduced their movie-going 

[ThomasNicole]

MCU have the most impressive consistency, it's really shocking how it's been strong for 15 years straight, and amazing how it still have it's peaks with some of the crossover movies. 

 

Avatar otherwise is impressive because of it's standalone nature. A1 have an insane run without anything prior, and then we have not only 13 years of nothing after but also a complete cultural shift in this period, and despite all that, A2 is also having an insane run (that could be even better and get close to the first movie initial run if it wasn't for China situation, in a different configuration of grosses per country of course, but still close on total). 

 

So like i said, i really don't see the point in saying how EG sell way more tickets as if it matters for Avatar, A2 doesn't have to reach that to be wildly succesful, it's not comparable franchises.

[stuart360]

1.71bil after 4 weekends.

Just think about that for a second.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Genuinely, the only thing stopping 2019 levels of overall box office are the lack of movies, that's pretty plain to see Jimbo. 

If we're talking global and looking at just A2 we can look straight to $500m+ lost from russia and china.

 

Also I think the confusion is coming from the following:

2022 is meant to be stronger than 2019, not the same. It being the same shows cinema is not back to pre-pandemic strength. Money is worth less now, that's how inflation works.

[kayumanggi]

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

could a megan-less weekend have led to avatar 2 beating avatar 1?

[LinksterAC]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yes, it will gross 220M and about ~30M admissions 

 

When the presales started, it was pointing to 700M total at the high end, before everything collapses. 

 

So it would be over 90M admissions there, add Russia which is also lost due the war, there it is ~100M admissions, plus the 220-230M it will made outside of that. 

 

Honestly, the way things are, complaining about a movie selling "just" 260M tickets is insane, especially comparing with a completely different franchise like MCU at its peak. And Covid is still an excuse, because it would sell ~320M tickets if it wasn't for Covid.

 

I’m not about to say that’s impossible. I certainly think it’s a *possibility*, but I’m also not going to take it for granted like you are.

 

Seems also possible to me that China would have ended up being as little 1.5X the rate it’s running now. Mainly because China is trying its post-2020 darndest to reopen right now.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, interiorgatordecorator said:

could a megan-less weekend have led to avatar 2 beating avatar 1?

depends if the actuals come in 2-3m higher

[efialtes76]

13 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I didn't even believe in $100M because the holidays are done. I wonder which markets are holding very well. France and Germany comes to mind first.

It increased around 50% in Spain.