M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah this is shaping up to be surprisingly the most impressive weekend for A2 

 

Let's see... the OW was lackluster 

 

The 2nd weekend have a very good hold even with a huge storm against it , but the OW was kinda low so it's "easier" to drop less  

 

The 3rd weekend have an insane increase, but arguably it could've been helped by the calendar and some demand that didn't catch it on the previous weekend due the storm

 

But now this sub 35% drop is really a undeniable proof of amazing WOM and a very leggy run to come, there's no holidays now to "blame" for the impressive numbers, there's no storm holding people back.

 

And tbh, i feel the next extended weekend could ended up flat or slightly increase like the 3rd weekend. Amazing that we get excellent runs from TGM and A2 with just a few months between them.

Edited January 8, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[setna]

18 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I am not forgetting how amazing TGM's run is. It's the best box office run since AVATAR, in my opinion. THE WAY OF WATER is also doing very well domestically and internationally. I didn't expect this to perform this well after that kinda muted opening. It has been a great run.

Of course it is and i also agree with TGM the most impressive run since Avatar. 
It´s gonna be very exciting how it hold from now, it looks like 650 + let´s see how far goes...

[ThomasNicole]

In another good note, R1 will be down likely by next thursday, in 28 days 

 

Which is even more impressive considering that many people was wondering if it would surpass it at all just 15 days ago

 

 

 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

In another good note, R1 will be down likely by next thursday, in 28 days 

 

Which is even more impressive considering that many people was wondering if it would surpass it at all just 15 days ago

 

 

Oh yeah, as rogue one dropped after holidays that meant A2 would too, i remember that

[Brainbug]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

 

Oh yeah, as rogue one dropped after holidays that meant A2 would too, i remember that

 

I mean, it dropped too.

 

Just a lot less than Rogue One

[setna]

Movies that grossed an amount of money in is farthest day since its release :  (only wide releases, MBFGW has the records for 3, 2 and 1 million)

100 M               Endgame                  Day 2
50 M                 Endgame                  Day 9
40 M                 Endgame                  Day 10

30 M                 TFA                           Day 16

20 M                 Avatar                       Day  23
15 M                 Avatar                       Day  37
10 M                 Titanic                       Day  58
5 M                   Titanic                       Day  107
3 M                   Titanic                       Day  121
2 M                   Titanic                       Day  135
1 M                    E.T.                           Day  212

[M37]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Disagree, it's because TGM has summer holiday weekdays that it's better to compare weekends. Forgot about that inflated week 5 weekend for A2, that's going to be brutal gap.

I guess we can try and work out how much TGM's weekdays are inflated to see where we expect A2 to drop? Seems like 20-30% increase on the dailies, something like that, but then lighter increases on weekends.

 

So which will be stronger? Top Gun Maverick's inflated weekdays, or that fact A2 has more demand?

 

 

 

It is better to just compare full weeks. For example, we're probably looking at a $45M 4th weekend, on par with TGM ... but like a ~$59M full week, which will be $10M less than TGM.

 

If they were to match weekends exactly from here on out - which is itself a huge IF - Avatwo would fall back to even by week 15 (which is September for TGM, when they're be more accurately weekend to weekend comparable)

[cory]

15 minutes ago, setna said:

Movies that grossed an amount of money in is farthest day since its release :  (only wide releases, MBFGW has the records for 3, 2 and 1 million)

100 M               Endgame                  Day 2
50 M                 Endgame                  Day 9
40 M                 Endgame                  Day 10

30 M                 TFA                           Day 16

20 M                 Avatar                       Day  23
15 M                 Avatar                       Day  37
10 M                 Titanic                       Day  58
5 M                   Titanic                       Day  107
3 M                   Titanic                       Day  121
2 M                   Titanic                       Day  135
1 M                    E.T.                           Day  212

For comparison

A2:

50 M                 Day 1
40 M                 Day 2

30 M                 Day 11

20 M                 Day  23 (pending)
 

TGM:

50 M                 Day 1
40 M                 Day 1

30 M                 Day 9

20 M                 Day  16

15 M                 Day 24
10 M                 Day 30
5 M                   Day  44
3 M                  Day  65
2 M                  Day  101
1 M                   Day  114

 

This type of record probably benefits non-summer movies more, but on the other hand this was Father's Day weekend for TGM and it only got to 17.7M on its best day vs 20 for A2 on a non-holiday weekend with nearly 50M more demand burnt off already. 

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

It is better to just compare full weeks. For example, we're probably looking at a $45M 4th weekend, on par with TGM ... but like a ~$59M full week, which will be $10M less than TGM.

 

If they were to match weekends exactly from here on out - which is itself a huge IF - Avatwo would fall back to even by week 15 (which is September for TGM, when they're be more accurately weekend to weekend comparable)

misleading week though isnt it with the monday being a holiday for TGM

A2 will have a bigger 5th week than TPM, also misleading? but damn, TGM will be $10m less

[upriser7]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

It is better to just compare full weeks. For example, we're probably looking at a $45M 4th weekend, on par with TGM ... but like a ~$59M full week, which will be $10M less than TGM.

 

If they were to match weekends exactly from here on out - which is itself a huge IF - Avatwo would fall back to even by week 15 (which is September for TGM, when they're be more accurately weekend to weekend comparable)

why would you be expecting just $14M in this week's weekdays for Avatar2 ? That would mean nearly 60% drop from last week weekdays (adjusting for last Monday being Holiday) and nothing we've seen so far indicates we are going to see such a huge drop. Also TGM's 4th week was slightly inflated by $4-5M due to Father's day.It probably would have been around $65M without advantage of Fathers day and Avatar2's 4th week has a decent chance of crossing that $65M number

Edited January 8, 2023 by upriser7

[JustLurking]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

It is better to just compare full weeks. For example, we're probably looking at a $45M 4th weekend, on par with TGM ... but like a ~$59M full week, which will be $10M less than TGM.

 

If they were to match weekends exactly from here on out - which is itself a huge IF - Avatwo would fall back to even by week 15 (which is September for TGM, when they're be more accurately weekend to weekend comparable)

A2 will probably do well more than match and buy itself a decent chunk of leeway next weekend+mon I'd say, but I have no clue if you were already accounting for it.

 

Honestly regardless of if it can beat TGM DOM or not (which is fairly unimportant to me), after this weekend I don't think their end points will be too different. A finish over 650M atleast seems very likely now.

[M37]

5 minutes ago, cory said:

This type of record probably benefits non-summer movies more, but on the other hand this was Father's Day weekend for TGM and it only got to 17.7M on its best day vs 20 for A2 on a non-holiday weekend with nearly 50M more demand burnt off already

It absolutely will skew towards non-summer movies, by 15-30% depending on genre. Jan/Feb and Sept/Oct in particular is where you’ll find the highest Saturday gross as share of the week (for non-holiday weeks)

 

A $17.7 in June would be something like $22M for equivalent demand squeezed into January a weekend

[interiorgatordecorator]

 

didnt expect to see empire city defending avatar 

[Tokugennumataka]

5 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

why would you be expecting just $14M in this week's weekdays for Avatar2 ? That would mean nearly 60% drop from last week weekdays (adjusting for last Monday being Holiday) and nothing we've seen so far indicates we are going to see such a huge drop. Also TGM's 4th week was slightly inflated by $4-5M due to Father's day.It probably would have been around $65M without advantage of Fathers day and Avatar2's 4th week has a decent chance of crossing that $65M number

Many places had holidays these last weekdays. In fact, 14M is a pretty good total for its weekdays. Let's say it does 13-13.5M on Sunday, I can see:

Mon - 3.4 (-75%)

Tue - 4.6 (+35%)

Wed - 3.2 (-30%)

Thu - 3.0 (-6%) // 14.2M weekdays

[Torontofan]

Should be around 575 million by next Monday.

 

650 locked 700 million looks likely.

[Tokugennumataka]

6 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

didnt expect to see empire city defending avatar 

I mean, he checks all his regular boxes here... streaming is devil incarnate, pandemic slaughtered theaters forever etc. 

[SchumacherFTW]

11 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

why would you be expecting just $14M in this week's weekdays for Avatar2 ? That would mean nearly 60% drop from last week weekdays (adjusting for last Monday being Holiday) and nothing we've seen so far indicates we are going to see such a huge drop. Also TGM's 4th week was slightly inflated by $4-5M due to Father's day.It probably would have been around $65M without advantage of Fathers day and Avatar2's 4th week has a decent chance of crossing that $65M number

I will say this for Top Gun, anything it gained in fathers day it also lost in PLF. Top Gun likely would have matched Avatar if it still had IMAX etc in weekend 4, but that's a summer schedule for you. 

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

didnt expect to see empire city defending avatar 

 

EC is right though, if we tuned down entertainment options to 2009 levels, changed XR rate, then kept 2022 inflation, then undid covid, and undid russia war, then also made japan lose their way, we would be looking at 4 billies easy

[upriser7]

6 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Many places had holidays these last weekdays. In fact, 14M is a pretty good total for its weekdays. Let's say it does 13-13.5M on Sunday, I can see:

Mon - 3.4 (-75%)

Tue - 4.6 (+35%)

Wed - 3.2 (-30%)

Thu - 3.0 (-6%) // 14.2M weekdays

huh ? which places had holidays in US last few days ? The numbers you are showing are pointing towards nearly 60% drop which I just don't see happening. A2 has had ridiculously good holds so far and I just don't see why it would change all of a sudden and have such a drastic drop unless there is some pre-sales data pointing towards that. NWH had around 48% drop last year and Rogue One had around 58% drop in 2017 and so far this movie is having far stronger holds than either of them

Edited January 8, 2023 by upriser7

[M37]

4 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

why would you be expecting just $14M in this week's weekdays for Avatar2 ? That would mean nearly 60% drop from last week weekdays (adjusting for last Monday being Holiday) and nothing we've seen so far indicates we are going to see such a huge drop. Also TGM's 4th week was slightly inflated by $4-5M due to Father's day.It probably would have been around $65M without advantage of Fathers day and Avatar2's 4th week has a decent chance of crossing that $65M number

Honestly guessing a bit at this point, as we don’t have a “regular” week yet to use a baseline, but for now expecting a similar weekend/weekday split as TFA, 65-70%/30-35%. Monday should be less than $5M, but how much less isn’t clear, could be as low as like $3.5 (-35%/-75%, up against CFB Nat’l Champ)

 

This weekend and weekdays give us the baseline/starting value for the rest of the run, and the weekdays into next weekend gives us the true (non-holiday) drop rate. From there the math gets a lot simpler, the range of outcomes narrower