95th Academy Awards nominations thread

[filmlover]

Has a studio ever pulled a clean sweep at one of these industry awards before? Cause A24 just did at SAG with the four Everything Everywhere wins + Fraser.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

57 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Has a studio ever pulled a clean sweep at one of these industry awards before? Cause A24 just did at SAG with the four Everything Everywhere wins + Fraser.

I think 4 wins is the best ever for a movie at SAG.

 

OTOH, The Banshees of Inisherin went 0-for-5, a more dubious SAG record. I've seen some say the Curtis win is good for Condon's chances because Bassett should have done the thing won here at SAG... But aren't you going to get AMPAS voters who'll just go for JLC and her career narrative? Curtis is in a Best Picture frontrunner and not a performance from the "dreaded", slumping MCU.

 

Fraser wins! If Butler loses the Oscar, I blame him not dropping the Elvis voice IRL, it's just too thirsty even by awards campaign standards.

[WrathOfHan]

lol SAG really chose chaos. If SAG and BAFTA go 2/4 this year with Ke Huy Quan being the obvious winner, there are a few options for the other categories:

 

Fraser/Blanchett/Condon (SAG gets the male categories right, BAFTA gets female)

Butler/Blanchett/Curtis (BAFTA gets lead right, SAG supporting)

Butler/Yeoh/Condon (SAG gets 2/3 EEAAO wins correct with BAFTA aligning on the other two)

 

Curtis is only winning if Yeoh loses lead imo. I really don't see AMPAS giving the film three acting wins when international factions are more muted on the film. If SAG goes 1/4, it'd be the first year since 2002 (and 2001) where they've done that; coincidentally, this is also the first year since 2002 where there won't be a televised sweeper, so there could be a correlation between those two. Right now I'm probably leaning Butler/Blanchett/Quan/Condon just because I don't see Fraser winning Actor without a Picture nomination and there is precedence for SAG going 1/4 in the past multiple times. Everything Everywhere clearly has Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor in the bag though, plus I imagine Screenplay and Editing will more than likely go to it.

[MikeQ]

My gut tells me Fraser will win. Butler feels too young and with too much a "pretty boy" vibe to win.

 

If Butler wins, he'll be among the youngest winners of Best Actor. He'll be the youngest since Adrien Brody in 2002 (for a Holocaust film), and before that Richard Dreyfus in 1977. 

 

Just a feeling.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

[CoolioD1]

I still say it’s the BAFTA winners and Quan. Think SAG likes “narrative” wins more like Glenn Close or Chadwick Boseman and that’s why Fraser won for his comeback but Butler is still the kind of performance that takes the Oscar imo.

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Fraser wins! If Butler loses the Oscar, I blame him not dropping the Elvis voice IRL, it's just too thirsty even by awards campaign standards.

Is there really any real world (not Film Twitter) backlash to Butler's overuse of the Elvis voice lol? I still give him the edge for the win since his movie is up for Best Picture and he's playing an icon but Actor is clearly going to be a nail-biter because SAG loves biopic performances just as much as they do narratives and veterans. It could also go either way because while the Academy does love biopic performances as well, the previous winners have been delivered by arguably much more famous names (Butler's career trajectory, which pre-Elvis filmography is mostly made up of Disney Channel/Nickelodeon fare, is in no way comparable to, say, Rami Malek's).

 

Personally speaking, it's hard to decide who I want to win more. Butler gives the better performance of the two and I really couldn't stand The Whale, but still rooting for Fraser because 1) it's unlikely he gets another opportunity like this again 2) seeing him an Oscar winner would make 1999 me so happy lol and 3) Butler is clearly very charismatic with plenty of potential to capitalize on his breakout in becoming an A-lister, and IMO it would benefit him in the long run if we see where his career goes from here instead of potentially putting him in the position of becoming the next Adrien Brody (who never fully capitalized on his Oscar glory).

[filmlover]

Also I did watch the SAG Awards last night and it was an actually really well-done and smooth show for their first non-network ceremony. Just reinforces that "the speeches are too long" is definitely not at all the problem with televised awards shows these days.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Is there really any real world (not Film Twitter) backlash to Butler's overuse of the Elvis voice lol? I still give him the edge for the win since his movie is up for Best Picture and he's playing an icon but Actor is clearly going to be a nail-biter because SAG loves biopic performances just as much as they do narratives and veterans. It could also go either way because while the Academy does love biopic performances as well, the previous winners have been delivered by arguably much more famous names (Butler's career trajectory, which pre-Elvis filmography is mostly made up of Disney Channel/Nickelodeon fare, is in no way comparable to, say, Rami Malek's).

 

Personally speaking, it's hard to decide who I want to win more. Butler gives the better performance of the two and I really couldn't stand The Whale, but still rooting for Fraser because 1) it's unlikely he gets another opportunity like this again 2) seeing him an Oscar winner would make 1999 me so happy lol and 3) Butler is clearly very charismatic with plenty of potential to capitalize on his breakout in becoming an A-lister, and IMO it would benefit him in the long run if we see where his career goes from here instead of potentially putting him in the position of becoming the next Adrien Brody (who never fully capitalized on his Oscar glory).

I just remember being surprised when Angela Bassett got asked about Austin's Elvis voice on some red carpet or wherever and her comments got turned into clickbait headlines. They're trotting out the voice coach to defend how his vocal chords have changed-it's not just some online only discussion that's gone under the radar of the stars. You're probably right that most voters don't care or admire his commitment to the role, but I can see the old cantankerous Honest Ballot guys being snarky about Butler and the Elvis voice in particular.  They've been judgemental cranks about much, much less...

 

I'm not sure if Brody's career was hurt by winning Best Actor too soon, or other things. I mean, he did get himself banned from SNL and spent seven years renovating a castle he bought for Elsa Pataky...

 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/adrien-brody-stone-barn-castle_n_6849906

 

Edited February 27, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[CoolioD1]

brendan fraser was on howard stern and they talked about the elvis voice thing and austin butler was on the graham norton show here about a month ago and basically had to announce that he was dropping the voice so i feel like that conversation transcended film twitter for sure. Can see it being to blame if he loses because it does make him seem like a bit of a goof. rdj in tropic thunder vibes

[grim22]

3 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

I still say it’s the BAFTA winners and Quan. Think SAG likes “narrative” wins more like Glenn Close or Chadwick Boseman and that’s why Fraser won for his comeback but Butler is still the kind of performance that takes the Oscar imo.

Bassett is feeling like Stallone. Stallone had won Globes and CC, Rylance won BAFTA and Idris Elba won SAG. Stallone had the narrative and looked like he would win, but had no actual industry support. Still feels like a missed opportunity for what was a great performance that time.

[filmlover]

Love JLC but the thought of her winning for that performance is sending me. 

 

I will say Supporting Actress is officially the most up in the air acting category where anyone could win. Wanna say Condon has a strong chance based on BAFTA but I dunno. Looking at the other winners in this category over the past decade and there isn't a single performance that she (or the other four nominated this year, honestly) would have won over, not even Vikander for that This Had Oscar Buzz.

[CoolioD1]

If Jamie Lee wins then I'll just expect Everything Everywhere to clean up and win like 8 awards. Kerry Condon just feels like the most traditionally Oscary part in the line up and it'll be something for Banshees which is a strong contender in its way. a lot of the time when the awards are all split up like this it's the BAFTA winner who gets the Oscar so she'd be the safest bet in a way.

[MrPink]

I have Butler - Yeoh - Condon - Quan

 

Condon seems similar enough to the Rylance/Stallone race for me. Just have the feeling that Blanchett is gonna be a victim of having too much success and Yeoh being pretty universally liked amongst all parties.

Edited February 27, 2023 by MrPink

[filmlover]

I want to say Blanchett is still in the lead since I'm positive it's "Cate or nothing" when it comes to the number of awards Tar is taking home but I get the feeling that if Everything Everywhere really is coming to dominate I don't see how Yeoh doesn't get swept up into it. 

[grim22]

31 minutes ago, MrPink said:

I have Butler - Yeoh - Condon - Quan

 

Condon seems similar enough to the Rylance/Stallone race for me. Just have the feeling that Blanchett is gonna be a victim of having too much success and Yeoh being pretty universally liked amongst all parties.

I also think unlike the weird McDormand vs Davis Covid era race, there's a more "she's due" factor with Yeoh who has never won before.

 

Blanchett is all but asking people to vote for Yeoh as well. She's giving a real "I already have won twice, please don't hate me" vibe in her speeches and interviews.

[titanic2187]

I still can't buy Brendon wining momentum because if Boseman is any lesson, the lesson is that it is hard to win a lead category without your movie getting nominated in BP. Butler on the other hand, is in a movie that traditionally liked by Oscar members.

 

As for Yeoh, the fact that EEAAO is going for BP means Blanchett is taking advantage since Best Actress become the only category that voters can reward Tar. And Blanchett's role in Tar simply is more juicy and showy. 

 

Bassett is officially losing its frontrunner status. Being in a non-BP movie certainly doesn't help and Marvel brand just make it worse. I am going with Condon taking this one and this will put Banshees in the wining combo leading up to potential BP victory (Best screenplay + Best supporting Actor/actress like 12 years a slave, moonlight, GB and Coda) 

 

 

 

 

[filmlover]

 

[SnokesLegs]

I love EEAAO and I’ll be ecstatic if it wins, but If you’d told me a year ago that the 2023 BP front runner would be a film featuring a fight scene where two characters have buttplugs dangling from their arses because it gives them a power up, I’d have called you insane. Really makes me wonder if the older academy members have even watched it.

Edited February 27, 2023 by SnokesLegs

[WrathOfHan]

Another important element of EEAAO's SAG sweep: that's concentrated solely on an American faction of one branch (albeit the largest one). When you add in all branches and international voters, not everything will translate at the Oscars based on how BAFTA went. For a close race like Yeoh and Blanchett, that has to be a big factor.

[JustLurking]

I can't see Fraser winning since The Whale missed the BP nom. No one has won best actor without a BP nom since Crazy Heart, and that was the year the oscars expanded, every year after actor winner had a BP nom.