Weekend Thread - Jan 27th-29th | Estimates - Avatar 15.7, Puss 10.6, Otto 6.75, M3GAN 6.37, Pathaan 5.95 | The Way of Water is the fourth-biggest movie of all time! Eleventh DOM! Zoe Saldana the GOAT

[druv10]

Wow, what a run by CMAC!!!

[TheFlatLannister]

8 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

The Niners game is probably going to be a rout. The real fun starts at 6:30 PM EST

 

Welp, Nvm...

 

CMC is actually insane 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

Ant Man will not be as big as either Dominion or Thor

[Dale Cooper]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Pretty sure.

[Ronin46]

14 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

It did, but the reason it had a comparatively big drop wasn't really that it lost its PLFs, it was because it went up against a $140m opener with very much overlapping audiences. It posted a big drop against Thor as well, despite not losing as many PLFs.

 

Ant Man will not be as big as either Dominion or Thor, and A2 will obviously be much smaller by then than what TGM were at those premieres. It really shouldn't be hit as hard. Wouldn't be too suprised if it holds very well, kind of what NWH did against Batman.

 

What do you think ANT3 opens with on its 3 day then?

[Dale Cooper]

Just now, Ronin46 said:

 

What do you think ANT3 opens with on its 3 day then?

I'm not saying it isn't going to be big. I just don't think it will be $140m big. I don't really do predictions, but if I had to guess, I would guess $105m maybe?

[4815162342]

Niners have plenty of time left with 3 timeouts

[Porthos]

OFFS 

[Porthos]

STOP COMMITTING PENALTIES ON DEFENSE CHALLENGE: IMPOSSIBLE

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

I'm not saying it isn't going to be big. I just don't think it will be $140m big. I don't really do predictions, but if I had to guess, I would guess $105m maybe?

 

I went through Zacks numbers and comped BP2 day 22 (I did it a few days ago) against ANT3 sales on same day and it came out as 

 

BP2 seats sold 159773 ATP $17.28 = 2.761M

ANT3 seats sold 123252 ATP $18.10 = 2.23M

 

Thats 80.8% of BP2, which opened with 28M/181M. 80% of that is 23M/146M. 

 

105M seems unlikely I would say.

 

It will depend if ANT3 is actually any good. ANT3 is a 4 day so that will depress the multiplier for 3 day i guess. Also is BP2 more pre sale heavy than ANT3 and so on. But seems like 120-130 is where I would have it at this stage for the 3 day. 

 

[Ronin46]

Also I would like to apologize for talking box office on a sports forum. (I hate Philly)

[4815162342]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

STOP COMMITTING PENALTIES ON DEFENSE CHALLENGE: IMPOSSIBLE

 

Not the best week in general for San Francisco players

 

 

Though Kent should find himself elected via the Veterans Committee soon enough. Most homers as a second baseman and one of the most prolific offensive second basemen in general should be enough to get in.

[TwoMisfits]

That was a major coaching mistake by SF.  When you have a new QB, and you get the ball after half, you go in and let the QB have 15 minutes to learn the plan for the 2nd half.

 

What you don't do is put the pressure of a 2 minute offense on him when you have a guy that can't be blocked...

 

Reddick is the MVP of the 1st half...

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

That was a major coaching mistake by SF.  When you have a new QB, and you get the ball after half, you go in and let the QB have 15 minutes to learn the plan for the 2nd half.

 

What you don't do is put the pressure of a 2 minute offense on him when you have a guy that can't be blocked...

 

Reddick is the MVP of the 1st half...

 

I disagree.  You don't act like that with 1:38 left on the clock.  Can't expect him to literally drop the ball like he did.

 

I'll give a bit on that hurry up 4th down call, though even then I can see people calling for Shanahan's head if it wasn't overturned and wasting a valuable timeout/challenge. 

 

This is just a case of players not executing/making dumb mental mistakes.  Play calls themselves have been fine.

Edited January 29, 2023 by Porthos

[4815162342]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I disagree.  You don't act like that with 1:38 left on the clock.  Can't expect him to literally drop the ball like he did.

 

 

Agreed. 1:38 with three timeouts is enough time to get in at least field goal range, no reason to give up the rest of the half

[Dale Cooper]

22 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I went through Zacks numbers and comped BP2 day 22 (I did it a few days ago) against ANT3 sales on same day and it came out as 

 

BP2 seats sold 159773 ATP $17.28 = 2.761M

ANT3 seats sold 123252 ATP $18.10 = 2.23M

 

Thats 80.8% of BP2, which opened with 28M/181M. 80% of that is 23M/146M. 

 

105M seems unlikely I would say.

 

It will depend if ANT3 is actually any good. ANT3 is a 4 day so that will depress the multiplier for 3 day i guess. Also is BP2 more pre sale heavy than ANT3 and so on. But seems like 120-130 is where I would have it at this stage for the 3 day. 

 

A lot of unknowns as of yet, but it does seem to me that the pace has decreased over the past few days. Also, there were reports that pre-sales were more front-loaded for Ant Man than for other Marvel films, which isn't that surprising considering it's kind of an important film for the upcoming MCU films. I really don't think it will be as backloaded as Black Panther over the weekend, though.

Edited January 29, 2023 by Dale Cooper

[setna]

5 hours ago, Mr Roark said:

Titanic’s $26M 25 years ago still blows my mind.

I don´t know how old are you, but is nice to see memebers in this forum talking about Titanic run in these times where everything over 5 years old is considered from ancient ages.

[DTP]

4 hours ago, MikeQ said:

Very strong 22% drop this weekend for Way of Water - and what it needed to still have a possibility for hitting a 5+ multiplier (~670M). The next two weekends will be crucial, I think, to determine if I can hit the milestone, given that it will be hit hard when Ant-man arrives. Whether it makes it or not, what a run this has been to follow.

 

Best Multipliers Ever for $70+ Million Opening Films (Friday Openers):

1. Avatar (2009) — 77.0 million (9.73)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (2022) — 126.7 million (5.67)
3. Finding Nemo (2003) — 70.3 million (4.84)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) — 134.1 million (4.63)^
5. Zootopia (2016) — 75.1 million (4.55)
6. Wonder Woman (2017) — 103.3 million (4.00)
7. Inside Out (2015) — 90.4 million (3.94)
8. American Sniper (2015) — 89.3 million (3.92)
9. Aladdin (2019) — 91.5 million (3.89)
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) — 248.0 million (3.78)
11. Toy Story 3 (2010) — 110.3 million (3.76)
12. The Incredibles (2004) — 70.5 million (3.71)
13. Despicable Me 3 (2017) — 72.4 million (3.65)
14. Finding Dory (2016) — 135.1 million (3.60)
15. Toy Story 4 (2019) — 120.9 million (3.59)
16. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012) — 84.6 million (3.58)
17. The Secret Life of Pets (2016) — 104.4 million (3.53)
18. The Jungle Book (2016) — 103.3 million (3.53)
19. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 94.3 million (3.53)
20. Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone (2001) — 90.3 million (3.52)

^ Run not yet complete

 

Peace,

Mike

 

So it will be #3 and #2 for $100m+ openers, nice. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Shanahan inching ever closer to his dream of a plug-and-play QB independent offense

 

*Josh Johnson enters concussion protocols*

 

I blame you for this, just so you know, M37.

 

[4815162342]

Saw on BOM that the sequel to The Wandering Earth got 1.35 million in around 140 theaters. Not bad.