Weekend Thread - Jan 27th-29th | Estimates - Avatar 15.7, Puss 10.6, Otto 6.75, M3GAN 6.37, Pathaan 5.95 | The Way of Water is the fourth-biggest movie of all time! Eleventh DOM! Zoe Saldana the GOAT

[Krissykins]

33 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The fact that this was still a pretty good weekend overall despite little activity (the one opener - Infinity Pool - was always going to be a niche product) is more positive news for the industry since the rest of the first quarter is looking to be quite active for the time of year.

15 films above $1m this weekend! 
 

Does anyone know the last time that happened?

[MikeQ]

11 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I get the worry for the competition from Antman but wasn't  NWH drop only 22% against $134m opener Batman? And that is when NWH gross was a lot smaller than Avatar 2 would on Antman's weekend. Even BA managed to drop "only" 56% against BPWF ($181m) with far weaker WOM.

 

Also, Antman is also quite a different type of blockbuster from Avatar 2, just like NWH from Batman. Even  I think there are chance two maybe able to coexist until busy schedule in March kick in. 

 

Interesting. I think a cogent argument could be made that Way of Water and Ant-Man - while clearly posing direct competition - don't overlap in the same vein as say two more typical blockbuster fare. As you suggest, it's possible that Antman draws in a somewhat different audience overall - perhaps younger, more male, etc, in the weeks they share together. I think it will still hit Way of Water hard, with screens and all, but maybe it will stabilize to an extent after that. You could be right - I guess we'll find out.

 

Peace,

Mike

[M37]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

15 films above $1m this weekend! 
 

Does anyone know the last time that happened?

Labor Day weekend, with holiday and Cinema Day bump though, and #16 was $990K

 

(though I don’t that 15 number will hold with actuals, more like 12)

[druv10]

14 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I get the worry for the competition from Antman but wasn't  NWH drop only 22% against $134m opener Batman? And that is when NWH gross was a lot smaller than Avatar 2 would on Antman's weekend. Even BA managed to drop "only" 56% against BPWF ($181m) with far weaker WOM.

 

Also, Antman is also quite a different type of blockbuster from Avatar 2, just like NWH from Batman. Even  I think there are chance two maybe able to coexist until busy schedule in March kick in. 

While true of those holds, biggest concern is losing of the PLFs by Avatar to Antman 3. Original Avatar dropped over 40% when AIW opened, by far it's biggest drop of the run up to that point.

[Sophia Jane]

keep 140% of NWH and then it will beat TGM

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, druv10 said:

While true of those holds, biggest concern is losing of the PLFs by Avatar to Antman 3. Original Avatar dropped over 40% when AIW opened, by far it's biggest drop of the run up to that point.

AIW = Avengers Infinity War? I'm a little confused here

[MikeQ]

12 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

keep 140% of NWH and then it will beat TGM

 

Again, I hate to be Grumpy Gus, but this isn’t likely to be the case. Please go look at No Way Home's drops through February - especially that 1% drop on President's Day weekend. Way of Water will not be able to replicate that, for obvious reasons.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited January 29, 2023 by MikeQ

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

AIW = Avengers Infinity War? I'm a little confused here

 

Alice in Wonderland, 2010.

[The Dark Alfred]

It won't beat TGM and may not even get to 700m. It's headed for 680m domestically. On the other hand it seems to have more juice OS, so 2.4 billion is doable.

Edited January 29, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[todos]

There’s been so many can’ts, won’ts, impossibles with this movie on BOT (& everywhere) that’s it’s like a sweet song of irony every time you see one repeated. JC man. 

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

Again, I hate to be Grumpy Gus, but this isn't happening. Please go look at No Way Home's drops through February - especially that 1% drop on President's Day weekend. Way of Water will not be able to replicate that, for obvious reasons.

 

Peace,

Mike

I think TFA is a more comparable example here. It is doing 40% more than TFA at the same but only for weekend not weekdays. Going by this rate this should be doing around $670m~$680m. Take note that TFA also faced Deadpool on President's Day weekend but somehow drop only 12%, likely due to VD. 

 

NWH's late legs was just too crazy and hard to replicate.

[druv10]

15 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

keep 140% of NWH and then it will beat TGM

 

These were the holds for NWH and remember Canada reopened during this time frame. Realistically, I don't see Avatar 2 continually be 140% of these numbers.

 

Jan 28, 2022	1	$11,003,528	-21%	3,675	$2,994	$735,889,808	7
Feb 4, 2022	3	$9,507,325	-14%	3,600	$2,641	$748,858,932	8
Feb 11, 2022	4	$7,521,730	-21%	3,300	$2,279	$759,372,547	9
Feb 18, 2022	3	$7,458,957	-1%	2,956	$2,523	$770,399,643	10
Feb 25, 2022	3	$5,801,584	-22%	3,002	$1,933	$779,938,531	11
Mar 4, 2022	4	$4,519,623	-22%	2,709	$1,668	$786,607,846	12
Mar 11, 2022	5	$4,050,047	-10%	2,702	$1,499	$792,261,001	13
Mar 18, 2022	6	$3,141,435	-22%	2,585	$1,215	$797,484,988	14

 

 

[shruth]

52 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

That run was the Michael Jordan of box office runs. 

 

So far beyond its contemporaries in so many ways as to beggar belief.

 

If you inflation-adjust that thing it's just ludicrous.

 

As a grade school aged Star Wars fan in 97/98, I absolutely despised Titanic because of how categorically superior its BO was.

? more like lebron. Titanic's longevity and lebron's is an apt comparison 

Edited January 29, 2023 by shruth

[MikeQ]

2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I think TFA is a more comparable example here. It is doing 40% more than TFA at the same but only for weekend not weekdays. Going by this rate this should be doing around $670m~$680m. Take note that TFA also faced Deadpool on President's Day weekend but somehow drop only 12%, likely due to VD. 

 

NWH's late legs was just too crazy and hard to replicate.

 

I also can't help but think that was in part because some of No Way Home's January business shifted to February. Canada's most populous province (which I live in) was on a modified lockdown for the month of January, such that theatres had to remain closed. (I can't speak for any other provinces in Canada.) Worth keeping in mind, when making comparisons to No Way Home at this point.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

[Borobudur]

25 minutes ago, druv10 said:

While true of those holds, biggest concern is losing of the PLFs by Avatar to Antman 3. Original Avatar dropped over 40% when AIW opened, by far it's biggest drop of the run up to that point.

That was when Avatar have its 80% of the gross were from 3D. This round the 3D share is "only" 62%, suggest that there is some life for A2 in standard hall. Dune was also a notable example for showing some legs despite losing PLF and available freely on HBO MAX. 

[John Marston]

Is 500m ww a possibility for Puss in Boots?

[MovieMan89]

Lol at studio Sunday hold for A2. Anyways, it’s still got a decent lead on TGM with a higher grossing equivalent weekend. People claiming 700 is out just isn’t true. It has to not crumble over AM weekend, but we’ll see. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

I get the worry for the competition from Antman but wasn't  NWH drop only 22% against $134m opener Batman? And that is when NWH gross was a lot smaller than Avatar 2 would on Antman's weekend. Even BA managed to drop "only" 56% against BPWF ($181m) with far weaker WOM.

 

Also, Antman is also quite a different type of blockbuster from Avatar 2, just like NWH from Batman. Even  I think there are chance two maybe able to coexist until busy schedule in March kick in. 

 

I might be wrong, but the appeal for A2 is watching it in PLF, while NWH could be watched in any format. Even if AntMan underperforms, it will still take most-all of A2's PLF screens, so by default A2 will be hit hard... 

[TwoMisfits]

51 minutes ago, todos said:

There’s been so many can’ts, won’ts, impossibles with this movie on BOT (& everywhere) that’s it’s like a sweet song of irony every time you see one repeated. JC man. 

 

Well, we all said it couldn't hit $1B domestic (since that was one of the clubs:).  I think that one has been pretty much settled since opening day...

Edited January 29, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, LinksterAC said:

That run was the Michael Jordan of box office runs. 

 

So far beyond its contemporaries in so many ways as to beggar belief.

 

If you inflation-adjust that thing it's just ludicrous.

 

As a grade school aged Star Wars fan in 97/98, I absolutely despised Titanic because of how categorically superior its BO was.

I think my favourite Titanic stat is that it was still in the top four when the summer 98 blockbuster season was well underway.  It’s 21st weekend. Absurd.