Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

There's no notable difference between the Caucasian percentage for Avatar 2 OW and Quantumania OW. Do you even bother to check before making silly comments like this? 

 

It isn't silly. AWOW struggled on OW but WOM turned things around later. Repeat business is huge now across demos. Quantumania will not have such luxury. So yes, there was/is OW disinterest (movie looks bad, movie looks same as the first one) but AWOW overcame it with quality. 

[upriser7]

10 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

So with Titanic only being a 2 week release, will those 3D screens/showtimes go back to Avatar 2 or will they go to Ant Man?

Was wondering the same...since there is no major release next week, wonder if A2 might gain some PLF shows. Atleast I hope it doesn't lose any PLF shows next week

[XXR & Friends]

12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

AWOW struggled on OW

 

No it didn't. 

[M37]

55 minutes ago, Eric the Conqueror said:

I don't know about OS box office or anything, but I don't see a reason why a 100M opening for Mario wouldn't be in consideration. Trailers consistently do well with a crowd, it trends all the time, advertising has been everywhere, the games have a strong fanbase across every age group, Illumination's the biggest animation brand in town, it's tracking like crazy on The Quorum. Maybe it's all hot air or gamers trying to oversell the thing, but the hype seems pretty legit where I stand.

Keep in mind the highest animated OW outside of summer or holidays is Zootopia at $75M

 

In addition, $100M PG OW level is almost exclusively sequels, in that there was an immediate buy-in from families thanks to the cache from the original. I know the IP has been around forever and is well liked, but just find it difficult to presume there’s going to be this mad family rush for OW rather than seeing a leggier run off a lower (but still maybe high!) stating total

 

To me, the best case is Lego movie with moderate inflation, not SLOP, in that I don’t think the hype with families (esp moms) is nearly on the level of younger adults driving the conversation and metrics like quorum 

 

[Verrows]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Keep in mind the highest animated OW outside of summer or holidays is Zootopia at $75M

 

In addition, $100M PG OW level is almost exclusively sequels, in that there was an immediate buy-in from families thanks to the cache from the original. I know the IP has been around forever and is well liked, but just find it difficult to presume there’s going to be this mad family rush for OW rather than seeing a leggier run off a lower (but still maybe high!) stating total

 

To me, the best case is Lego movie with moderate inflation, not SLOP, in that I don’t think the hype with families (esp moms) is nearly on the level of younger adults driving the conversation and metrics like quorum 

 

Frozen 2??

 

Edit: Nevermind, just noticed you said summer OR holidays.

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

For me it's hard to fathom a world where The Super Mario. Bros Movie does anything less than Sonic 2 OW/DOM/WW, which was 72m/192m/402m

 

It is looking incredibly well done. The art design, animation quality, and 90% of the voice acting is on point. I think the deep cast roster and not a focus on a single star ala Ryan Reynolds/Jim Carrey makes a difference. How much of Pikachu and Sonic success was because of the films being sold on those two personalities?

 

Mario appears to be hitting every possible button needed to draw out anyone who fell in love with Nintendo at any point over the past four decades. Chris Pratt remains miscast unfortunately, but at this point everyone's ready to overlook it. And like much of Illumination, I expect it to have high rewatchability.

 

 

I'm thinking $85m/$220m/$550m

I agree with everything you've said here but think it can be way bigger than this. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

43 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

There's no notable difference between the Caucasian percentage for Avatar 2 OW and Quantumania OW. Do you even bother to check before making silly comments like this? 

Ant-Man 3's 34% compares to No Way Home at 32%, DS2 and Fast 9 had 35%, Shang Chi had 36%, Venom 38, Morbius 37, Thor 4 had 39%, The Batman and JW: Dominion were at 41%. Ant-Man 2 was all the way at 53% white.

Nope and the first Black Panther were both at 35% as well. 

I think the obvious takeaway is that something other than race is the causal factor here.  
 

Edited February 18, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[Verrows]

This is just going to come under $100M isn't it?

 

17.5

28.5

30

22.5

= 98.5

 

I don't think they can fudge that number over 100. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Verrows said:

This is just going to come under $100M isn't it?

 

17.5

28.5

30

22.5

= 98.5

 

I don't think they can fudge that number over 100. 

Sat and Sun are too low imo. I think it'll get over 100. Feeling 32-33 Sat from the chain I'm tracking. 

Edited February 18, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Verrows]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

Sat and Sun are too low imo. I think it'll get over 100. 

That's welcome news. I was assuming a pitiful Saturday increase based on word of mouth so I'll take any increase i can get.

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Sat and Sun are too low imo. I think it'll get over 100. Feeling 32-33 Sat from the chain I'm tracking. 

What's your chain say about the holdovers?

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, GOGODanca said:

What's your chain say about the holdovers?

Not tracking them. 

[TheFlatLannister]

I feel like people are reading too much into the OS numbers

 

All I'm seeing is domestic MCU fans are a lot more forgiving and have a stronger sense of loyalty as oppose to OS fans. If Marvel fixes their quality, OS numbers will go back up...This isn't a permanent decline. 

[GambitPool]

 

I just want to chime in. I don't think the MCU is dying or whatever as some have said. But I do think they jumped into the Multiverse without having a strong vision of how to get there. The Multiverse is a franchise ender. You don't go back from it once you've opened that door. It should've been the final saga of the MCU bringing everything together with an ending that could lead into a reboot if ever needed. 

 

Instead, Feige should've went with a lower stakes threat running through Phase 4 culminating in a new Avengers film. The Skrull/Kree Invasion could've led to some jaw dropping moments for general audiences. Characters we thought were who they were are actually Skrulls. They could've really played up the paranoia each film and show. Hinting at sleeper agents in disguise or throwing red herrings out. 

 

And it would've made sense the Skrulls/Kree took advantage of half the population disappearing for 5 years. Have a big reveal that many people, even our heroes, were kidnapped when they returned. They could even have hinted at the Multiverse in the post-credits scene for the New Avengers film. We think there's another Skrull in hiding as one of our heroes, but it's actually a Multiverse variant separate from them. Instead, Secret Invasion is relegated to a low-stakes Disney Plus show with little relevance to the Multiverse saga. 

 

As of now we already know what's going to happen. The new Avengers team is going to fail in their first outing while Secret Wars brings back the OGs and other legendary characters to help out. Doesn't make them look good and they needed some big win before going into Kang's multiverse end. 

 

I think the MCU needed an intermission between a universe ending threat and a Multiverse one.

 

[MovieMan89]

If Mario can snag rave reviews (which I’m still being cautious about even though the marketing is phenomenal since it is Illumination after all) then all bets are off. Non-sequel animation records will get absolutely destroyed.  

[kayumanggi]

BOM is listing $63.5 M as the Friday number. 😂

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

BOM is listing $63.5 M as the Friday number. 😂

 Added previews twice.

[Grebacio]

3 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

 

I see a sub 60 opening

No way

[CaptNathanBrittles]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

 

When did anyone go to see a concert for the sound engineer? What a maroon.

Edited February 18, 2023 by CaptNathanBrittles

[Flamengo81]

47 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If Mario can snag rave reviews (which I’m still being cautious about even though the marketing is phenomenal since it is Illumination after all) then all bets are off. Non-sequel animation records will get absolutely destroyed.  

100% agree. I generally like Illumination movies, but like in the sense that most are just simply solid, fun movies with no greater qualities to it, different than something like great Pixar/Disney/Dreamworks movies. They are pretty f big with this pattern, if they manage to somehow make a movie that uses a huge property like Mario and is even a bit more than just "solid", I think the sky is the limit.