Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania — Weekend Thread | 105.5M 3-Day, 120M 4-Day

[M37]

26 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Avatar 2 is finishing #3 worldwide, we've known this for over a month. The stans no longer care about american dailies

Frankly, that’s the proper perspective

 

19 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Problem is we been told for weeks this is the week when Avatar 2 crumble hard. 

And my point it was that nothing “crumbled” this weekend except week 2 movies, the entire market moved together and held fairly well, and claiming otherwise is poor analysis trying to score cheap points by presenting a skewed comparison as some kind of “gotcha” 

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Frankly, that’s the proper perspective

 

And my point it was that nothing “crumbled” this weekend except week 2 movies, the entire market moved together and held fairly well, and claiming otherwise is poor analysis trying to score cheap points by presenting a skewed comparison as some kind of “gotcha” 

none of those other movies were making a huge chunk of money from premium formats like a2 so ant-man wasn't gonna hit them as hard as a2, heck BOPro was projecting a 41% drop for the weekend because of that

[Dale Cooper]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

And my point it was that nothing “crumbled” this weekend except week 2 movies, the entire market moved together and held fairly well, and claiming otherwise is poor analysis trying to score cheap points by presenting a skewed comparison as some kind of “gotcha” 

This is so dishonest, you know that the reason it was said that Avatar would crumble had to do with it loosing IMAX, PLFs and 3D shows, and not necessarily that another big film had its premiere. That didn't really happen, and here we are again with you trying to explain to everyone (again) why Avatar isn't really having good legs.

[PlatnumRoyce]

17 minutes ago, Firepower said:

What's the reason for The Marvels to not drop really hard from the first one? Maybe it's gonna have a huge guest character that's gonna boost its potential? Or maybe it's gonna be connected to a huge crossover? Or maybe the first film was very well received and the character is beloved? Or maybe this movie is gonna be so incredible all other things are not gonna matter and it'll carry itself with unbelievable WOM? No?

The fact that it's a normal sequel to a basically well liked movie with a high baseline awareness that was boosted higher by Endgame (though IW built a good chunk of that in)

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2021/12/03162342/2111133_crosstabs_MC_ENTERTAINMENT_MARVEL_PT_1_Adults_v1_CC-1-5.pdf

Why would The Marvels need incredible word of mouth simply to retain a baseline level of interest from people who already paid to see a CM film? 

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

This is so dishonest, you know that the reason it was said that Avatar would crumble had to do with it loosing IMAX, PLFs and 3D shows, and not necessarily that another big film had its premiere. That didn't really happen, and here we are again with you trying to explain to everyone (again) why Avatar isn't really having good legs.

Someone posted a chart earlier in this thread showing that A2's legs are like the 3rd best legs of all time for a film opening over 70mil.

Anyone trying to say A2 didnt have good legs is talking from between their own legs.

[Willowra]

21 minutes ago, Firepower said:

What's the reason for The Marvels to not drop really hard from the first one

The Marvels will face a drop of anything between 25 and 45%, which will depend upon circumstances, imo.

 

22 minutes ago, Firepower said:

 Maybe it's gonna have a huge guest character that's gonna boost its potential? 

People don't know what they'll show in post-credit scenes.

 

22 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Or maybe it's gonna be connected to a huge crossover? 

Yes, it is connected to either KD or Secret Wars, as per credible scoopers.

 

23 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Or maybe the first film was very well received and the character is beloved? 

First film was well received, not very well though. Yes, a lot of people like the character. Movie poster has 5M likes across marvel/disney official instagram accounts(not counting regional marvel accounts and Brie Larson account).

 

24 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Or maybe this movie is gonna be so incredible all other things are not gonna matter and it'll carry itself with unbelievable WOM? No?

Yes, it is very much possible.

[Firepower]

3 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

The fact that it's a normal sequel to a basically well liked movie with a high baseline awareness that was boosted higher by Endgame (though IW built a good chunk of that in)

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2021/12/03162342/2111133_crosstabs_MC_ENTERTAINMENT_MARVEL_PT_1_Adults_v1_CC-1-5.pdf

Why would The Marvels need incredible word of mouth simply to retain a baseline level of interest from people who already paid to see a CM film? 

Thor 4 did not much more than 700 mln with poor reception. Why The Marvels, with far worse variables from a lot less liked character to a lot less liked predecessor, should do around 800 mln then?

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Disney are busy trying to squeeze out every last penny to get to a $120m actual

[M37]

32 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

M37 why does it bother you if you have seen 3 posts impressed with A2's 10% drop?.

I mean a lot of people were expecting the film to drop a lot more on Ant Mans OW.

Next week if Ant Man had a great 30% drop or soemhting liek that, we would have page after page of Marvel fans creaming themselves.

Bad analysis bothers me, especially when it’s people overreacting or reaching for a 20th/80th percentile outcome when in reality it’s (almost always) somewhere in the middle. Some movies/franchise bring it out more than others (in opposite directions)
 

32 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Seen a few salty posts on here this wekend in regards to A2. I guess hitting no.3 on the all time chart has hurt some poeple.

The fact that you think this has anything to do with this conversation says a lot more about you than anyone else 

[Eric Lasagna]

Moderation

 

Yeah we're done with this devil's advocate "Did Avatar 2 really have a good hold this weekend" stuff. I have zero clue why this is even here, but it's not going to go anywhere but pointless fanboy wars nonsense, and we don't need this energy here. Please stop it right now.

[GOGODanca]

14 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

The fact that it's a normal sequel to a basically well liked movie with a high baseline awareness that was boosted higher by Endgame (though IW built a good chunk of that in)

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2021/12/03162342/2111133_crosstabs_MC_ENTERTAINMENT_MARVEL_PT_1_Adults_v1_CC-1-5.pdf

Why would The Marvels need incredible word of mouth simply to retain a baseline level of interest from people who already paid to see a CM film? 

because the first one was perfectly placed with the end credit of IW and leading right into Endgame and feige marketing the character as super important for the movie, this one won't have that going for it, will still make a lot of money if its the same quality as first one (A cinemascore and such) but on its own that first entry was not a true $1.1b grosser, probably more like WW ($800m) without the factors mentioned above

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

The fact that you think this has anything to do with this conversation says a lot more about you than anyone else 

Well i was talking in general with that part, not singling you out.

[MikeQ]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

Frankly, that’s the proper perspective

 

And my point it was that nothing “crumbled” this weekend except week 2 movies, the entire market moved together and held fairly well, and claiming otherwise is poor analysis trying to score cheap points by presenting a skewed comparison as some kind of “gotcha” 

Your earlier point about the Saturday-to-Saturday drop (-28%) is a really excellent one - in terms of getting a better sense of what Way of Water's drop for the weekend would have been without the confounding factors of the holiday this weekend and Super Bowl last weekend.

 

That said, to imply that Way of Water's drop (either Saturday-to-Saturday or for the weekend overall) is as expected seems pretty problematic to me, given the discourse on the board around Way of Water having a heftier drop this weekend than it would ordinarily get, given Ant-Man's huge opening and the loss of PLFs. (And I get it - I expected it, too.)

 

This is bolstered by predictions from reputable sites. BOP predicted $4.5M (-38%) for the 3-day weekend, and BOR predicted $6.4M for the 4-day weekend. Way of Water is besting BOR's prediction for the entire 4-day in just 3-days, and BOP's 3-day prediction by nearly 50%.

 

It's not surprising to me that some folks (myself included) are surprised by the strength of its hold this weekend. (That said, I do understand any annoyance you may have with the condescending tone some folks take in their posts.)

 

Peace,

Mike

[M37]

12 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

That said, to imply that Way of Water's drop (either Saturday-to-Saturday or for the weekend overall) is as expected seems pretty problematic to me, given the discourse on the board around Way of Water having a heftier drop this weekend than it would ordinarily get, given Ant-Man's huge opening and the loss of PLFs. (And I get it - I expected it, too.)

What I found out recently is that theaters are contractually obligated to play it in 3D (if capable) for the duration of the run, so it mostly kept those, but lost a lot of standard shows instead to make room for AMWQ
Whatever ~68% 3D share its been running probably at least held steady if not went up, and somewhat offset the loss of sweet PLF ticket prices. (And prob will continue to rise as more of those 2D shows are dropped in future weeks)

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

What I found out recently is that theaters are contractually obligated to play it in 3D (if capable) for the duration of the run

[Flamengo81]

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

Well, your 380 isn't far from my 400 low-end OS. Difference IS domestic in our expectations, despite you saying it won't drop that much.

45% OS drop I can see, especially without China (or a far smaller than ideal result), and as I said, it's not far off from my 400. But almost 40% drop domestic seems excessive to me when the first was big but not Black Panther level. And 650, your pessimistic scenario, is still higher than the second Ant Man (30 million higher, but still). It seems to me even with your gloomy outlook, it's still gonna do more than AM2 and probably closer to 700. Maybe the first Doctor Strange, but with 30-40 million more domestically and same amount less OS, if that's what you're expecting? That was 3rd quarter release too, but TM is later in the calendar, thereby allowing (in my opinion), for the better holiday legs (on top of a higher opening) to account for that uptick compared to Strange domestically (30-ish million in your expectation, closer to 100 in mine)

When I said Ant-Man 2 numbers, I did not mean to say it would do exactly the same, but in the same ballpark. Also, you said you don't see it going under 250M domestic and my prediction was 270M so within the range you believe is possible to do domestic. 

I am not saying it doing in the 600M range is the "right" scenario or anything, It's just my prediction given the worse state of the MCU now compared to 2019, no Endgame hype to boost it considerably, China contributing with probably around 100M less, overall decline in overseas markets and (this is a very important part of my prediction) the fact that I personally think the movie will not have a good reception.

[MovieMan89]

56 minutes ago, Dale Cooper said:

This is so dishonest, you know that the reason it was said that Avatar would crumble had to do with it loosing IMAX, PLFs and 3D shows, and not necessarily that another big film had its premiere. That didn't really happen, and here we are again with you trying to explain to everyone (again) why Avatar isn't really having good legs.

Yep, anyone paying any attention since Xmas could see the movie had incredible WOM, not just bolstered by PLF. TGM all over again where it was a PLF intended movie but that didn’t stop WOM wo PLF. Im frankly way more surprised it didn’t hold a bit better in the prior two weekends than I am about this weekend’s hold. 

Edited February 21, 2023 by MovieMan89

[kayumanggi]

55 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Someone posted a chart earlier in this thread showing that A2's legs are like the 3rd best legs of all time for a film opening over 70mil.

Anyone trying to say A2 didnt have good legs is talking from between their own legs.

 

It's second to TOP GUN: MAVERICK if we talk about $100M openers. It's crazy that the top two leggiest movies that opened with $100M or more are from the same year. WONDER WOMAN is number three. I excluded SHREK II since it opened on a Wednesday.

[Ronin46]

7 hours ago, Dale Cooper said:

Well, I expected that it wouldn't be especially well received as it's fairly common for MCU films these days. You can also not be sure what average reception would have gotten it, I would argue that the OW wouldn't be that affected by reviews unless they truly were teriffic. Maybe a bit higher than now, but certainly not $15m. It was also fairly evident before the reviews dropped that it had lost a lot of ground compared to the comps.

 

But hey, kudos to you that you're admitting you were wrong!

 

Easily would have done 20/120 with average reception. 15M on the OW is nothing. It was heading to 23M after many days of sales. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

47 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Thor 4 did not much more than 700 mln with poor reception. Why The Marvels, with far worse variables from a lot less liked character to a lot less liked predecessor, should do around 800 mln then?

 

I don't see why the marvels has obviously far worse variables when no one has seen the actual film and you have a more receptive China.  

 

 

Thor: Ragnarok also made quite a lot less than Captain Marvel. Are you more likely to see Thor 4 if you've seen Thor 3?  Downside for Marvels is probably lower than L&T but I think people are underselling the upside and baseline.