Weekend Thread (02.24 - 02.26) | Actuals: 31.96M QUANTUMANIA | 23.26M COCAINE BEAR | 15.80M JESUS REVOLUTION

[Willowra]

4 minutes ago, YM! said:

I don't see how SC2 and Armor Wars miss 500m WW. 

SC got the advantage of zero competition in September; it won't get a free run next time, and it won't have the novelty of the first Asian MCU solo movie. Armor Wars lol. Both Armor Wars & Blade would do less than 500M WW

[CaptNathanBrittles]

Who wants an Armor Wars movie without Tony Stark? What's the point?

[SpiderByte]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

Wakanda Forever loved but it's not saving Quantumania rn is it.

No, which is why I find the arguments claiming Quantumania will be the opposite and hurt the reviews and box office of other movies very confusing, since nobody claims the reverse ever happens for any movie that isn't a direct sequel in any franchise.

 

10 minutes ago, YM! said:

I don't see how SC2 and Armor Wars miss 500m WW. 

Exactly, people are predicting Armor Wars will do poorly despite it not having a release date or even a director yet. It has a writer and one actor.

 

17 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

By this you admit... Thor 4, DS2 and Eternals were failures

No, not mentioning every single individual film in Phase 4 isn't "admitting they were failures", especially not the one that made nine hundred million dollars, nearly 300 more than the first, and got positive critical and audience reception.

[SpiderByte]

7 minutes ago, Willowra said:

SC got the advantage of zero competition in September; it won't get a free run next time

How on earth would you know this when it doesn't even have a release date?

[John Marston]

I don’t think WF should be put as a massive success. A success definitely but it still had a massive drop from the first on a bigger budget. 

Edited February 25, 2023 by John Marston

[Willowra]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

How on earth would you know this when it doesn't even have a release date?

A release date won't change my prediction, and yes, they should prioritise KD over SC2, Eternals, Amor Wars, or any other likely 500 million dollar movies.

[Spidey Freak]

9 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

Who wants an Armor Wars movie without Tony Stark? What's the point?

 

I'm sure Tony will appear as a hologram.

[SpiderByte]

3 minutes ago, Willowra said:

A release date won't change my prediction, and yes, they should prioritise KD over SC2, Eternals, Amor Wars, or any other likely 500 million dollar movies.

A release date would not change your belief that it'll have more competition in it's release timeframe? Despite the fact that you have literally no idea what this competition would be until it gets a date?

[grim22]

It's funny how many records of BvS are being broken by the recent MCU movies.

 

BvS had the lowest Cinemascore of any MCU or DC movie since 2012, now Eternals and Ant Man 3 matched it.

BvS was the first and only movie to open above 400M WW and not hit 1B, Doctor Strange 2 did that

BvS was the biggest drop for a CBM opening to 100M+, Quantamania going to exceed it

There's only the less than 2x legs thing left, will be clearer next weekend if that will stand

[MovieMan89]

It’s really a shame they played the Shang Chi card during phase 4 when the box office was still too gripped by covid. That has really been the only post EG movie besides NWH that had the potential to be massive due to incredible WOM. And the fact that it was already awhile ago now and there have been so many MCU duds since certainly doesnt help either. 
 

Also, Michelle Yeoh is really having her moment this past year. Imagine if SC came out now instead of AM3. Could have potentially done wonders for MCU goodwill. 

Edited February 25, 2023 by MovieMan89

[SpiderByte]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

It’s really a shame they played the Shang Chi card during phase 4 when the box office was still too gripped by covid. That has really been the only post EG movie besides NWH that had the potential to be massive due to incredible WOM. And the fact that it was already awhile ago now and there have been so many MCU duds since certainly didn’t help either. 

You don't think Guardians will have good WOM based on what evidence?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

You don't think Guardians will have good WOM based on what evidence?

 

Pretty sure he's just talking about what has already been released. Not everything is an attack on the MCU...

[JustLurking]

truly a battle of hyperbole going on here

 

one side acts like the mcu is literally dead already and the other is spiderbyte

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

You don't think Guardians will have good WOM based on what evidence?

Wasn’t talking about that movie at all, but if you want my take on it, I think it’s capped at a very definitive ceiling no matter what. Something like 425/1b even if WOM is amazing. 

[YM!]

25 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

No, which is why I find the arguments claiming Quantumania will be the opposite and hurt the reviews and box office of other movies very confusing, since nobody claims the reverse ever happens for any movie that isn't a direct sequel in any franchise.

It's not so much Quantumania itself will cause the sequels to underperform though I do think maybe reception of Phase 4 causes Guardians to open closer to 150m than 200m but it'll make it up in legs if good but may not do as well with “ultimate potential”. Most of the sequels imho have a baseline of 90-100m OW if reception is bad because a lot of these characters are liked enough due to how big the fanbase is. The rest depends on reception.

 

The problem is it can hurt newer entries that have yet to be introduced due to a weaker brand, like Thunderbolts which seems like Suicide Squad in that most members have similar powers and has been done before or Blade which needs to deliver on the vampire fighting action. Armor Wars shouldn't worry because people like War Machine enough and with a lot of Stark gassing up and rumors of West Coast Avengers team-up, should be enough where it'll be okay. Further installments like sequels to Ant-Man or Eternals or Strange are likely to decrease, and can effect future team-ups (like the thing that would really get the brunt if reception were to continue would be Kang Dynasty). 

 

 

Edited February 25, 2023 by YM!

[JustLurking]

Ant Man was tracking very well and opened easily over 100M (domestically, anyway, but BP wasn't as well liked OS esp. in many countries where AM started poorly) in spite of shit reviews, so BP2 sure as fuck didn't hurt it

 

Beyond OW, AM itself has to answer for its legs

Edited February 25, 2023 by JustLurking

[OncomingStorm93]

Re; Guardians 3... I'm starting to think it's not going to perform as well at the end of the day as G2, based off the two trailers we've seen.

 

G2's hooks: 3 years after the last one. Baby Groot, isn't he just so f*****g cute?!?! Kurt Russell is Peter's dad! The trailers are filled with the humor everyone loved from the first film. And damn isn't this colorful.

 

G3's hooks: 6 years since the last film, but we've seen the gang 3 other times in that span. Intergalactic animal abuser who lives on a Cronenberg-looking thing, and gold pouty-face boy, both of whom (sorry) played by no-names. Tone leaning heavily dramatic. Overall MCU (and Chris Pratt) luster is fading.

[SpiderByte]

2 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

G3's hooks: 6 years since the last film, but we've seen the gang 3 other times in that span. Intergalactic animal abuser who lives on a Cronenberg-looking thing, and gold pouty-face boy, both of whom (sorry) played by no-names. Tone leaning heavily dramatic. Overall MCU (and Chris Pratt) luster is fading.

You really think an actor being a "no name" matters for the Guardians franchise, which launched the film careers of several of it's stars?

Edited February 25, 2023 by SpiderByte

[filmlover]

Universal's winning streak since December (Violent Night, Puss in Boots, M3GAN, Knock at the Cabin, Cocaine Bear all doing either great or acceptable levels of business) got me looking up their slate for the rest of the year.

 

4/7: The Super Mario Bros. Movie

4/14: Renfield

5/19: Fast X

6/9: Strays

7/21: Oppenheimer

8/11: The Last Voyage of the Demeter

8/18: Untitled Please Don't Destroy Comedy

10/13: The Exorcist

11/17: Trolls 3

12/22: Illumination's Ducks

 

They have a pretty strong line-up through July at least (though Strays looks like it could end up either another Sausage Party/Good Boys or The Happytime Murders), though their fourth quarter looks pretty flat since it's unlikely they'll release two animated movies so close to each other (Trolls 3 is the one likely to move since Disney's Wish is already on Thanksgiving the following week). On their specialty side, Focus is looking to have a potentially good year too with a bunch of mainstream-friendly projects on deck (Book Club 2 in May, Wes Anderson's mega-star-studded Asteroid City in June, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 in September, new Alexander Payne movie in November...they also have the Amy Winehouse biopic which is likely to be a fourth quarter release as well as the Kathryn Newton-starring/Diablo Cody-written Frankenstein-with-a-twist comedy Lisa Frankenstein which doesn't have a date yet).

[GOGODanca]

Universal and Paramount have such good overall diverse slates and still disney will win every year cause they own the biggest IPs