Weekend Thread (02.24 - 02.26) | Actuals: 31.96M QUANTUMANIA | 23.26M COCAINE BEAR | 15.80M JESUS REVOLUTION

[Sophia Jane]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Any explanation to that? Did the Chinese auds get tired of Marvel or they just simply didn't care about ANT-MAN? What are your predictions for GOTG III?

Well ,if the series or a brand disappeared for a long time in a place then many people won’t remeber them,like nobody remeber Nokia phone right now,even Nokia is extremely popular back to 90s.

And also Antman is not a good movie,that’s the core reason.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[wildphantom]

9 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Its interesting how the movie has become 'the biggest movie of all time' in some of those countries on that list, but in the UK its just done 'great'.

same equivalent to the domestic really on how far behind it is to Force Awakens. That movie was a straight up phenomenon in the states and U.K.  

[MovieMan89]

PiB surely must be the leggiest animated film of the 21st century, right? Even if we look at 3 or 5 day openings I’d imagine. 
 

Hell, I feel like it even beats a lot of the leggy animated runs from the 80s and 90s too… 

Edited February 26, 2023 by MovieMan89

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

PiB surely must be the leggiest animated film of the 21st century, right? Even if we look at 3 or 5 day openings I’d imagine. 

Has it surpassed Demon Slayers multiplier in Japan?

[GOGODanca]

A2 with actuals should come around $4.9m, Sunday will end up dropping around 33-34% not 43%

[MovieMan89]

Just now, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Has it surpassed Demon Slayers multiplier in Japan?

I meant DOM

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

PiB surely must be the leggiest animated film of the 21st century, right? Even if we look at 3 or 5 day openings I’d imagine. 
 

Hell, I feel like it even beats a lot of the leggy animated runs from the 80s and 90s too… 

Its going to be right up there isnt it. Although of course its worth remebering just how low the film opened domestic and worldwide. If it had opened like 80mil domestic and 180mil WW or something, its legs would NOT be like they are.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, stuart360 said:

Its going to be right up there isnt it. Although of course its worth remebering just how low the film opened domestic and worldwide. If it had opened like 80mil domestic and 180mil WW or something, its legs would NOT be like they are.

Yes, but I’d go back to the 80s/90s analogy there where even then when that would have been a decent OW, this is still crazy leggy. 

[M37]

On 2/25/2023 at 9:45 AM, M37 said:

Working on a larger data write-up here, but first how about some Trivia Time!

 

Of the 7 MCU films that have opened in the post-pandemic era, can you name the title that had the largest drop from opening Saturday to second Saturday?

  Reveal hidden contents

Answer: No Way Home! Despite 2nd Sat falling on Christmas Day, the -57.3% is the official low water mark, almost certainly driven down by COVID concerns as the Omicron wave swept over the domestic market. Second lowest is Thor L&T at -56.1%

 

Anyway, looking to see if AMWQ can get to $15M (-55.7%) for its Second Saturday, which would be +81% from Friday estimate Charlie reported above

As promised, a bit of a dive into MCU second weekend Saturday, in light of the drop for AMWQ. Like Charlie, I think that's a better measure of drop than the full weekend, which can be skewed by Thursday rush and holidays

 

Pre-pandemic, from CACW through Endgame plus Far From Home, despite differing levels of audience reception, you could pencil in a -43.5% to -47.8% drop for second Saturday and (mostly) not think twice. Of the 11 film in that time period, all but 4 fell into that narrow range, with the exceptions being Black Panther catching a second wave and falling just -27.9%, and the three July Friday releases - Ant-Man, Homecoming and Ant & Wasp - which dropped a bit more (49.4, 52.5 & 50.1), presumably due to the Independence Day week boost to their opening weekends

 

However, post-pandemic, its been a different story. Here's the OW Sat to Second Weekend Sat drop for the MCU from Black Widow on

• BW = -55.8%
• Shang-Chi = -33.8%
• Eternals = -50.8%
• NWH = -57.3% (Xmas Day)
• Strange MoM = -54.2%
• Thor L&T = -56.1%
• BPWF = -48.7%
• AMWQ = -56.9% (estimate)

Whole lot of asterisks with that data set, with lingering/variable pandemic effects, plus unusual release dates as they tried to catch back up on releases. But looking at the more "normal" (bolded) titles, there appears to be both a more frontloaded pattern generally, with only the A CinemaScore BPWF managing better than -50%, and even then still behind the worst non-July second Saturday of CACW (-47.8%)

 

tl;dr - in the context of how MCU has fared in post-pandemic market, AMWQ's second weekend performance isn't the historically poor outlier like the top 10 worst drops/BvS comparisons suggest, and the default expectation is that it should leg out from here akin to MoM and Thor (1.3x second week), finishing around ~$225M-$230M, not sub-2x OW

 

[GOGODanca]

PIB2 also opened on a wednesday and the FSS that weekend was deflated by a massive winter storm and christmas eve/christmas day, its had a fantastic run regardless but if it was a true FSS with previews opening and without the other factors mentioned, it probably opens in the ~25m range and the multiplier is more in line with Sing 2 then the absurd 13 .5 or whatever its at

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

As promised, a bit of a dive into MCU second weekend Saturday, in light of the drop for AMWQ. Like Charlie, I think that's a better measure of drop than the full weekend, which can be skewed by Thursday rush and holidays

 

Pre-pandemic, from CACW through Endgame plus Far From Home, despite differing levels of audience reception, you could pencil in a -43.5% to -47.8% drop for second Saturday and (mostly) not think twice. Of the 11 film in that time period, all but 4 fell into that narrow range, with the exceptions being Black Panther catching a second wave and falling just -27.9%, and the three July Friday releases - Ant-Man, Homecoming and Ant & Wasp - which dropped a bit more (49.4, 52.5 & 50.1), presumably due to the Independence Day week boost to their opening weekends

 

However, post-pandemic, its been a different story. Here's the OW Sat to Second Weekend Sat drop for the MCU from Black Widow on

• BW = -55.8%
• Shang-Chi = -33.8%
• Eternals = -50.8%
• NWH = -57.3% (Xmas Day)
• Strange MoM = -54.2%
• Thor L&T = -56.1%
• BPWF = -48.7%
• AMWQ = -56.9% (estimate)

Whole lot of asterisks with that data set, with lingering/variable pandemic effects, plus unusual release dates as they tried to catch back up on releases. But looking at the more "normal" (bolded) titles, there appears to be both a more frontloaded pattern generally, with only the A CinemaScore BPWF managing better than -50%, and even then still behind the worst non-July second Saturday of CACW (-47.8%)

 

tl;dr - in the context of how MCU has fared in post-pandemic market, AMWQ's second weekend performance isn't the historically poor outlier like the top 10 worst drops/BvS comparisons suggest, and the default expectation is that it should leg out from here akin to MoM and Thor (1.3x second week), finishing around ~$225M-$230M, not sub-2x OW

 

The thing is, AM in theory should be one of the least frontloaded MCU sub-franchises. There’s nowhere near the rabid and massive fanbase for this sub-franchise as many other MCU ones. And 100m is hardly a “big” blockbuster OW in the year 2023. So the fact an AM movie could even pull something as awful as a 2.2x multi to start with proves what I’ve been saying that MCU is getting absurdly frontloaded these days.
 

If a movie like GotG3 or Avengers 5 that actually should be majorly frontloaded to start with get bad WOM, we could see something unprecedented like 1.7x multi or something at this point. 

Edited February 26, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

A2 with actuals should come around $4.9m, Sunday will end up dropping around 33-34% not 43%

No closer to 43 looks right.

[GOGODanca]

Just now, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

No closer to 43 looks right.

Based on? Last non nfl Sunday that wasn't on a holiday weekend the Sunday drop from Saturday was 34% 

[Legion Again]

I’d explain the July Sats by more burnt off demand @M37, none of those wknds are jul 4 affected.

[Eric is Anxious]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The thing is, AM in theory should be one of the least frontloaded MCU sub-franchises. There’s nowhere near the rabid and massive fanbase for this sub-franchise as many other MCU ones. And 100m is hardly a “big” blockbuster OW in the year 2023. So the fact an AM movie could even pull something as awful as a 2.2x multi to start with proves what I’ve been saying that MCU is getting absurdly frontloaded these days.
 

If a movie like GotG3 or Avengers 5 that actually should be majorly frontloaded to start with get bad WOM, we could see something unprecedented like 1.7x multi or something at this point. 

I mean I think the bigger issue is less MCU getting more frontloaded and more that Ant-Man 3 stinks to high heaven. It's kind of hard to not be frontloaded when you have a terrible film.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Based on? Last non nfl Sunday that wasn't on a holiday weekend the Sunday drop from Saturday was 34% 

Just looked at A1 post pres wknd vs pre-SB wknd suns. Possible the trend doesn’t hold up but I think this sun tends to drop a bit more harshly in general.

[Eric is Anxious]

-

(-)

Violent Night

Universal

$156,000

+2,011%

61

+13

$2,557

$49,960,245

13

 

@Krissykins It's legit. Oh what a happy, glorious day.

[wildphantom]

4 minutes ago, Eric Bear said:

I mean I think the bigger issue is less MCU getting more frontloaded and more that Ant-Man 3 stinks to high heaven. It's kind of hard to not be frontloaded when you have a terrible film.

in your opinion. I don’t think it’s remotely close to terrible. I really don’t.

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

As promised, a bit of a dive into MCU second weekend Saturday, in light of the drop for AMWQ. Like Charlie, I think that's a better measure of drop than the full weekend, which can be skewed by Thursday rush and holidays

 

Pre-pandemic, from CACW through Endgame plus Far From Home, despite differing levels of audience reception, you could pencil in a -43.5% to -47.8% drop for second Saturday and (mostly) not think twice. Of the 11 film in that time period, all but 4 fell into that narrow range, with the exceptions being Black Panther catching a second wave and falling just -27.9%, and the three July Friday releases - Ant-Man, Homecoming and Ant & Wasp - which dropped a bit more (49.4, 52.5 & 50.1), presumably due to the Independence Day week boost to their opening weekends

 

However, post-pandemic, its been a different story. Here's the OW Sat to Second Weekend Sat drop for the MCU from Black Widow on

• BW = -55.8%
• Shang-Chi = -33.8%
• Eternals = -50.8%
• NWH = -57.3% (Xmas Day)
• Strange MoM = -54.2%
• Thor L&T = -56.1%
• BPWF = -48.7%
• AMWQ = -56.9% (estimate)

Whole lot of asterisks with that data set, with lingering/variable pandemic effects, plus unusual release dates as they tried to catch back up on releases. But looking at the more "normal" (bolded) titles, there appears to be both a more frontloaded pattern generally, with only the A CinemaScore BPWF managing better than -50%, and even then still behind the worst non-July second Saturday of CACW (-47.8%)

 

tl;dr - in the context of how MCU has fared in post-pandemic market, AMWQ's second weekend performance isn't the historically poor outlier like the top 10 worst drops/BvS comparisons suggest, and the default expectation is that it should leg out from here akin to MoM and Thor (1.3x second week), finishing around ~$225M-$230M, not sub-2x OW

 

 

Summer movies burn off demand...so, the only movies on point are Shang Chi, Eternals, MoM, and BPWF...so, MoM is still the legs multiplier to use...

 

And this weekend, Ant Man 3 lost so few showings.  Next weekend will be a different ball game with 3 openers, the loss of a lot of PLF, and small and midsize theaters deciding how many screens to drop for Ant Man vs keeping A2 or Puss.  I think they all keep the latter and so Ant Man 3 could be getting a huge showing drop, which will take away the "boredom" tickets it probably got from the 12-35 set this weekend...

 

AKA - I could see a BVS% drop again next weekend (or 54%+)...

[YM!]

Guardians 3 I'm thinking 150/400/850 which is still very great. I still think The Marvels will ultimately fine even with Dune 2 as its not too big a threat domestically and they can still bully it out of that 11/3 spot (110/275). Songbirds and Snakes could be problematic due to nostalgia overdose and there's yet to be a huge blockbuster for women, it all depends on how people react to a trailer.