Weekend Thread (02.24 - 02.26) | Actuals: 31.96M QUANTUMANIA | 23.26M COCAINE BEAR | 15.80M JESUS REVOLUTION

[Eric S'ennui]

All told, aside from Ant-Man (and some would argue its bad hold is a good one from a certain POV), not a bad weekend. Two openers that overperformed expectations, and one of them will probably be in the top 10 for a while, Avatar and Puss still doing their thing, a very funny fudge from Violent Night. Good stuff, especially as we head to a very fun and exciting March.

[Eric S'ennui]

1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

in your opinion. I don’t think it’s remotely close to terrible. I really don’t.

Okay.

[wildphantom]

1 minute ago, Eric Bear said:

Okay.

indeed! 

[M37]

9 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

I’d explain the July Sats by more burnt off demand @M37, none of those wknds are jul 4 affected.

That I said ID week was on purpose; it’s the peak of the summer movie season, when a whole of vacations are scheduled, similar to - but not nearly the same degree - as Christmas. The result is a moderately inflated week - including the weekend - which results in slightly larger drops following. Its fairly common enough with early July tentpoles beyond MCU

[THUNDER BIRD]

50 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Any reason why Ant Man is doing a lot better than Wakanda Forever in China?.

In fact its doing quite well in quite a few asian countries from that area for some reason. I was checking the international numbers earlier in the week on Mojo, and the film is doing pretty meh everywhwre except asia for some reason where its doing 'ok'.

In India Ant Man is doing less than Wakanda Forever.

 

Wakanda Forever had bigger opening in India than Ant Man and will have bigger lifetime, but trending of Wakanda Forever in India was bad. Ant Man trending is even worse.

[M37]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Summer movies burn off demand...so, the only movies on point are Shang Chi, Eternals, MoM, and BPWF...so, MoM is still the legs multiplier to use...

Thor grossed another 1.33x its second full week, MoM 1.27x, not much of a discrepancy, and I knocked AMWQ down to 1.25x because of stronger upcoming competition 

 

Fwiw, I don’t really subscribe to the “burning off demand” concept, especially when limiting comparisons to relevant data points, like just Sat/Sat or full weeks to balance out seasonal effects 

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

That I said ID week was on purpose; it’s the peak of the summer movie season, when a whole of vacations are scheduled, similar to - but not nearly the same degree - as Christmas. The result is a moderately inflated week - including the weekend - which results in slightly larger drops following. Its fairly common enough with early July tentpoles beyond MCU

I mean, AM1 isn’t even close to independence week 😛   
 

I am skeptical that you’d see a systematic difference in 2nd sats for OWs the wknd after Jul 4 vs the rest of the summer (which should all be a bit worse than schooltime due to burnt off demand).   
 

As far as mcu specifically though the only outside July summer movies are Gotg and hulk which have reception skews to deal with.

[Shawn Robbins]

What a weekend. Huge for Cocaine Bear. Was way off target there, need to reassess what happened with modeling and which markets skewed false.

 

Glad to see Jesus Revolution breaking out, though -- was more confident in that one than the studio and its own tracking, but had a lot of ?s with how the early access shows would be handled.

 

Ant-Man...

 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

Any reason why Ant Man is doing a lot better than Wakanda Forever in China?.

In fact its doing quite well in quite a few asian countries from that area for some reason. I was checking the international numbers earlier in the week on Mojo, and the film is doing pretty meh everywhwre except asia for some reason where its doing 'ok'.

Well, Wakanda Forever was released in China 3 months after initial launch and was available to pirate. Unlike Antman which is a new release. Plus, the Chinese audience has always been friendly to Antman (for reasons I don't know) 

[Cmasterclay]

Really swell weekend. I'm quite pleased.

 

BOP has fairly conservative estimates for March, especially Scream and John Wick. I have everything except for Shazam higher than the high end. Am I actually being too optimistic for the first time in 15 years of posting?

[Issac Newton]

1.) Ant-man and the Wasp Quantumania (Dis) 4,345 theaters, Fri $8.3M (-82%) Sat $14.6M Sun $9.3M 3-day $32.2M (-70%), Total $167.3M/Wk 2

 

2.) Cocaine Bear (Uni) 3,534 theaters, Fri $8.65M, Sat $8.8M Sun $5.5M 3-day $23.09M/Wk 1

 

3.) Jesus Revolution (LG) 2,475 theaters, Fri $6.95M (includes $3.3M previews) Sat $4.7M Sun $3.8M 3-day $15.5M/Wk 1

 

4.) Avatar: The Way of Water (Dis) 2,495 theaters (-180), Fri $1.1M (-19%) Sat $2.3M Sun $1.3M 3-day $4.7M (-28%)Total $665.3M /Wk 11

 

5.) Puss in Boots: Last Wish (Uni) 2,840 theaters (-172), Fri $900K (-26%) Sat $1.95M Sun $1.27M 3-day $4.1M (-23%), Total $173.4M/Wk 10

 

6.) Magic Mike’s Last Dance (WB) 2,918 (-116) theaters,Fri $905K (-46%) Sat $1.23M Sun $865K 3-day $3M (-45%) total $23.2M/Wk 3

 

7.) Knock at the Cabin (Uni) 2,115 (-486) theaters, Fri $520K (-49%) Sat $870K Sun $480K 3-day $1.87M (-53%) Total $33.9M /Wk 4

 

8.) 80 for Brady (Par) 2,397 (-722) theaters, Fri $480K (-52%) Sat $820K Sun $530K 3-day $1.83M (-51%)/Total $36.4M/Wk 4

 

9.) Missing (Sony) 1,006 (-510) theaters, Fri $263K Sat $485K Sun $262K 3 day $1M (-41%) Total $31.4M/Wk 6

 

10.) A Man Called Otto (Sony) 1,118 (-607) theaters, Fri $217K Sat $391K Sun $242K 3-day $850K (-47%) Total $62.2M/Wk 9

[SnokesLegs]

41 minutes ago, YM! said:

Guardians 3 I'm thinking 150/400/850 which is still very great. I still think The Marvels will ultimately fine even with Dune 2 as its not too big a threat domestically and they can still bully it out of that 11/3 spot (110/275). Songbirds and Snakes could be problematic due to nostalgia overdose and there's yet to be a huge blockbuster for women, it all depends on how people react to a trailer.

I feel like Hunger Games could go either way, but I’m leaning more towards audience indifference and an underperformance. Jennifer Lawrence was a huge draw for those films, so without her or any of the original cast, I can’t see it being anywhere near as popular as the original 4 films. I might be eating crow come November, but I can’t see it being a particularly big threat to Dune or The Marvels.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I can't help but feel like audiences getting a taste of high caliber cinema like Top Gun 2, Avatar 2 and Everything Everywhere All at Once is contributing to Quantumania's insane beating and humiliation. Especially towards the end of the last decade superhero movies were carrying exhibition on its back. Now, the competition is arguably outdoing Marvel, and the MCU's style might not cut it for the average Joe anymore. Food for thought.

[TwoMisfits]

OT: But since this is "premier product" weekend, I finally got around to watching The Greatest Beer Run Ever on Apple+ last night.  It's like a throwback tv "movie of the week" movie.  That's not a bad thing.  It swings for a single, and it gets a single.  It's pretty much almost a coming of age story of a young directionless adult who gets a serious reality check.  The movie really kinda avoids saying much more than that, steering clear of most of the controversy it could have jumped feet first into...

 

That said, my one big problem is that Zac Efron was miscast - he's way too old for the part he's supposed to play, and I think the movie would have been better with someone 10-15 years younger in the role.  That said, the movie probably doesn't get made without him, so I guess you take him in the role, and just accept this is the reality of film making...

Edited February 26, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[upriser7]

1 hour ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Just looked at A1 post pres wknd vs pre-SB wknd suns. Possible the trend doesn’t hold up but I think this sun tends to drop a bit more harshly in general.

Studio's initial estimates have been consistently underestimating A2's Sunday number almost every weekend post holidays.. everytime they project something close to 45% drop and it ends up dropping close to 35%. That's why A2 has come in higher than studio's estimates almost every weekend. 

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

in your opinion. I don’t think it’s remotely close to terrible. I really don’t.

If only we had some instruments to get a feel for what the general audience thinks

[YM!]

30 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

I feel like Hunger Games could go either way, but I’m leaning more towards audience indifference and an underperformance. Jennifer Lawrence was a huge draw for those films, so without her or any of the original cast, I can’t see it being anywhere near as popular as the original 4 films. I might be eating crow come November, but I can’t see it being a particularly big threat to Dune or The Marvels.

I mean personally I'm thinking more 170m to Fantastic Beasts numbers as Zegler isn't a big draw like Lawrence but as a 2000s kid, the YA film craze was huge back in the day and it caters to an underserved demographic with the book doing solid in sales. I mean did anyone see Maverick doing 700m prior to release let alone 400m? 

Edited February 26, 2023 by YM!

[vafrow]

11 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I can't help but feel like audiences getting a taste of high caliber cinema like Top Gun 2, Avatar 2 and Everything Everywhere All at Once is contributing to Quantumania's insane beating and humiliation. Especially towards the end of the last decade superhero movies were carrying exhibition on its back. Now, the competition is arguably outdoing Marvel, and the MCU's style might not cut it for the average Joe anymore. Food for thought.

 

I think it's an interesting dilemma around Marvel. They've moved to a much more assembly line approach, basically leaning into their biggest criticisms. But, a big part of that was out of necessity to keep turning out product. The last couple of years, with release calendars being light, theatres would have really struggled without it.

 

But, yes, the idea that Marvel offers spectacle that you can't get elsewhere has been undercut. Interestingly though, by two movies that are hard to duplicate. Cameron spent over a decade getting this to where he wanted. Other studios can't do the same.

 

Top Gun was filmed prepandemic, and the Mission Impossible movies are massive budgets. If this becomes the expectation for audiences, it'll be a high bar to meet. I'm not sure how willing studios are to bet that big, and which actors/directors/ franchises they're willing to bet on.

[interiorgatordecorator]

47 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I can't help but feel like audiences getting a taste of high caliber cinema like Top Gun 2, Avatar 2 and Everything Everywhere All at Once is contributing to Quantumania's insane beating and humiliation. Especially towards the end of the last decade superhero movies were carrying exhibition on its back. Now, the competition is arguably outdoing Marvel, and the MCU's style might not cut it for the average Joe anymore. Food for thought.

 

why did you have to ruin your great point by mentioning eeaao

[CoolioD1]

hmm, no tweets about how we're all morons this week then?