How many films will surpass $700M at the box office worldwide this year?

[Mulder]

On 6/6/2023 at 6:43 AM, Mulder said:

Presales are showing 60 as like the extreme high-end, it's looking more like mid 40s to mid 50s right now. If it does hit 50 lets say, it'd need a 3x to reach 150. Not impossible but like I said, unlikely. It's about to get hit with a 70+ opener next week (At minimum, could go into the 90s), dealing with the 3rd weekend of Spider-Verse, and then after that it's going to deal with Indy 5 and then all of July's openers. Like I said, not impossible but the thought of it doing THAT well is pretty unlikely.

EDIT: For context the previous TF multis were-

Bumblebee-5.8x (Only possible because of Holiday weekends and a small OW)

The Last Knight-2.96

Age of Extinction-2.45

Giving it Last Knight's multi would get it to 150 if it opened to 50 or higher but Last Knight also had a more open schedule for a bit until Homecoming. We'll see.

Ok so Rise of The Beasts surpassed all expectations and hit an insane 61 for its OW. It's definitely passing 150 now. If overseas was stronger, it'd be a contender for 700+ but unfortunately international seems surprisingly weak for it. @stripe you were right on the money.

[stripe]

10 hours ago, Mulder said:

Ok so Rise of The Beasts surpassed all expectations and hit an insane 61 for its OW. It's definitely passing 150 now. If overseas was stronger, it'd be a contender for 700+ but unfortunately international seems surprisingly weak for it. @stripe you were right on the money.

 

I am also really surprised with overseas weakness, especially China. Another 700M candidate that falls short

[Austin]

MI7 just got China confirmed so that should be a lock for $700M.

[Sophie]

MI7 is expected to make 285M domestic by BOP. That would mean it needs a 40/60 split to get to 700M. But it sounds like that should be in the cards for it. 

[dudalb]

We can take The Flash off the list.

[Austin]

6 hours ago, dudalb said:

We can take The Flash off the list.

Butbutbutbut...

 

2nd weekend hold?

[Bob Train]

Mario

Guardians 3

(maybe) Fast X

(probably) Spider-Verse

MI7

And then a few films that have good chances of doing and a few that could if they break out

[Marathon]

A grim year for box office when at half-way point you only have two movies over $700m and uncertainty getting more to join the club.

[Mulder]

4 hours ago, Austin said:

Butbutbutbut...

 

2nd weekend hold?

It might hold decently internationally, apparently Asia's liking it, but its going to really struggle with bad US drops.

[KP1025]

19 minutes ago, Mulder said:

It might hold decently internationally, apparently Asia's liking it, but its going to really struggle with bad US drops.

 

Unfortunately, it's going to collapse in its biggest OS market as China has 10 new local releases for the holidays next week. Going to get gutted in screen count.

[Sophie]

This is still a growth year for box office in terms of smaller and midscale films being able to fill theaters on a week-to-week basis. 

 

Last year, the 50th biggest film domestically made $22M. This year, we should easily get that number higher. 

 

But the blockbuster scene feels far less healthy. I guess the recurring problem is the relative weakness and unpredictability of the international market. Despite a few stand outs, dom/os splits on average seem much more dom heavy than they were in the years leading up to covid. 

 

Are we seeing a reversal of the "blockbusters are doing great but midbudgets are suffering" narrative of pre-covid times? 

[Sophie]

One piece of good news is that Fast X is now officially the 3rd biggest film of 2023, surpassing China's biggest film this year (which was really the more important bench mark than the arbitrary $700M number)

 

I'm a little concerned with Spider-Verse's dom/os split though. 

 

I guess at this point, I'm putting my hopes in MI7, The Marvels, Aquaman (unfortunately inheriting a very messy DC universe), and I suppose the idea that Dune 2 and Oppenheimer can increase significantly on the covid-afflicted predecessors of Dune 1 and Tenet. And then I guess there's The Meg. And maybe some other film will break out that we totally don't see coming. 

[Austin]

6 hours ago, Mulder said:

It might hold decently internationally, apparently Asia's liking it, but its going to really struggle with bad US drops.

I was kidding with my post but yeah, you are right.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Austin

[Flip]

I think Aquaman should do it (though the test screenings have been bad), MI7 has a 95% chance, and then Indy is 40%, Marvels also 40%. Dune 2 is a possibility but a very low one at that. I wish Spiderverse would get there but I don’t think so now since it’s probably not hitting 400m domestically

[Sophie]

9 hours ago, Flip said:

I think Aquaman should do it (though the test screenings have been bad), MI7 has a 95% chance, and then Indy is 40%, Marvels also 40%. Dune 2 is a possibility but a very low one at that. I wish Spiderverse would get there but I don’t think so now since it’s probably not hitting 400m domestically

Where are you thinking Spidey lands?

[Kalo]

What about Barbie? if all the hype and buzz is real. it could hit $250m+ dom what is it international potential?   

[upriser7]

I am not even confident about MI7 crossing 700M anymore. MI6 did $790M ($180M from China) and MI5 did $680M ($135M from China). Considering the decline of Hollywood movies market in China post-covid, I don't think it's a guarantee that MI7 crosses 700M

[Bob Train]

39 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

I am not even confident about MI7 crossing 700M anymore. MI6 did $790M ($180M from China) and MI5 did $680M ($135M from China). Considering the decline of Hollywood movies market in China post-covid, I don't think it's a guarantee that MI7 crosses 700M

Guardians 3 proved that Hollywood can still do similar numbers to what it used in China to if reception is good and if there haven't been any movies that massively hurt the reception of the franchise.

[Bobzaruni]

10 hours ago, Sophie said:

Where are you thinking Spidey lands?

It should be 650M+ but 700M is a toss up imo

[Sophie]

11 hours ago, Kalo said:

What about Barbie? if all the hype and buzz is real. it could hit $250m+ dom what is it international potential?   

Even if that 250M dom number came true, you really think Barbie of all things would have a 35/65 split? 

 

I still don't see Barbie making much at all. Seems like something perfectly tuned to get a ton of online attention and very little interest from General audiences.