April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[MovieMan89]

20 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I got laughed at a couple of weeks ago for saying Mario is Star Wars levels of love from generations.  Yet here we are. 

 

The mistake people make with Mario, and anything Nintendo for that matter, is that adults have not only grown up with it since the early 80’s but still play it. Who believes the no doubt monster sales of the new Zelda next month are kids? Nintendo done right on the big screen was always an untapped juggernaut if they got it right. 

Nintendo is like Disney ten years ago. Tons of nostalgia with every gen and lots of goodwill being built from quality products. Hopefully they don’t let it go to their head and become like Disney right now. 

[spizzer]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

hmm. probably like 725m+

 

Thanks.

 

Let's see what happens.  I'm a believer in $700M, just needs a few more WTF holds in the coming weeks.  

 

I wonder how this & TOTK will interplay with each other in terms of Nintendo mindshare taking over public.  May 12 launch and I expect 12-15M units for Fri-Sun and then 20M+M by end of June (quarter end when they report results).

 

Nintendo's top 2 IPs driving ~$3B in global public spending in just 1 quarter is no small thing, there will be big buzz culturally around them this summer/year (highest grossing film & best selling game WW in the same year).

[titanic2187]

Look like everything except Pope's Exorcist come above estimate. Overall a very strong Sunday. Probably people skipping church this Sunday after Good Friday weekend last week. 

 

Quote

 

Sony/Screen Gems’ The Pope’s Exorcist made it to a $9M opening, after a $2.2M Sunday good for second place.

Third right now belongs to Lionsgate’s John Wick: Chapter 4‘s fourth weekend of $8.1M, after $2.47M Sunday.

Universal’s mid-sized budget Dracula comedy Renfield is fourth with $8.03M after a $1.99M Sunday.

 

And Amazon/Artists Equity/Skydance Sports/Mandalay’s second weekend of Air at $7.85M is in fifth place, -46%, with a running total of $33.4M. By the end of its second weekend, Universal’s Ticket to Paradise, which is a comp here, stood at $33.5M, but that movie opened on a Friday compared to Air‘s Wednesday. Ticket to Paradise eased 40% in weekend 2 with $9.85M but held like a rock in weekend 3, down just 13% to $8.5M.

Sixth place belongs to Paramount/eOne’s Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves with $7.5M, -46%, after an estimated $2.28M Sunday. Its running total is $74.2M. A belief stands in distribution land that this movie can still get to $100M.

Sony’s Crunchyroll’s original animation pic Suzume opened to $5M in seventh place. We’ve seen much, much better from Crunchyroll, the uphill battle here is that this is a whimsical original piece of anime vs. the fantasy fight franchise films of Dragonball Z, etc.

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

46 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Shit.

 

We talking $60M+ next weekend for the Bros. Mario?

 

I'd wait just to see early screen sets and PLF allocations...it will also have to deal with a lower Friday with no one off...

 

Edit to add: And speaking of screen sets, like a big MCU or Star Wars, Mario does have presales for this weekend already open without final screen allocation at both of my locals.  My PLF local has already given it a 1/2 PLF screen for presales (all shows for 4pm and before), so that's a good sign for another good showing and PLF allocation this weekend...

Edited April 17, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[superduperm]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I'd wait just to see early screen sets and PLF allocations...it will also have to deal with a lower Friday with no one off...

How many people were off just this last Friday? Like honestly? 40% of schools were off Easter Monday and it was undoubtedly much less than that as the week went on.

[screambaby]

It's spring vacation here for kids. 

I don't know about other states

Edited April 17, 2023 by screambaby

[MovieMan89]

This weekend definitely confirms Mario is a big time weekend movie like I suspected. These next few weekends before GotG are gonna be so fun to track for it. I think 4th weekend is where we could maybe see some Avatar level craziness. Maybe something like 61-62 next weekend and then 46 for the 2nd all time 4th weekend (AS obviously doesn’t count). 

Edited April 17, 2023 by MovieMan89

[superduperm]

I don’t agree with the logic that a stronger Sunday hold means a harsher Monday drop. History says whenever a film has a strong Sunday hold, it gets to have its cake and eat it too with spillover business into Monday. “Reverting to the mean” isn’t really a thing here. Plus, that Sunday hold alone proves that this isn’t performing like a typical animated film.

 

I’ll go with $7M Monday for now until proven otherwise. That would already be a -77% drop.

[CJohn]

Mario is dropping 80%+ today and it will cause extremely entertaining panick accross the board.

[Cheddar Please]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Going into it's 3rd weekend, Incredibles 2 was at 407.7M DOM after summer weekdays of 10.4M (Monday), 13.7M (Tuesday), 10.2 (Wednesday) and 10.0M (Thursday). Obviously Super Mario will do much more than what Incredibles 2's 46.4M third weekend DOM. 

 

That said, how far behind Incredibles 2 DOM do people expect Super Mario to be going into this coming weekend?

I'd say ~27m weekdays and ~50m weekend for a conservative estimate of 430m through next Saturday, which would put it 10m behind I2

[MovieMan89]

435-445 for my Mario prediction this time next week. Neck and neck with I2 except with a drastically bigger 3rd weekend gross. Will handily eclipse it and never look back next weekdays. 

[Cheddar Please]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

435-445 for my Mario prediction this time next week. Neck and neck with I2 except with a drastically bigger 3rd weekend gross. Will handily eclipse it and never look back next weekdays. 

As much as SMB has been an absolute beast so far, I2 had a massive 2nd weekday period of 44m this week, with no day falling below 10m (a feat that only it has managed to accomplish outside of the holidays) and a 3rd weekday period of 34m boosted by July 4. No way SMB will come close to I2s weekdays until at least the 4th week

Edited April 17, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Cheddar Please said:

As much as SMB has been an absolute beast so far, I2 had a massive 2nd weekday period of 44m this week, with no day falling below 10m (a feat that only it has managed to accomplish outside of the holidays) and a 3nd weekday period of 34m boosted by July 4. No way SMB will come close to I2s weekdays until at least the 4th week

Ah yes forgot about the 4th. Either way, will either eclipse it next weekend and then maybe very briefly fall behind during those weekdays that week, or eclipse it during 4th weekend. After 4th weekend, it’s all over for I2 either way. 

[wildphantom]

14% drop for Mario in the U.K. officially. Lol. 
 

Air only dropped 10% too. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

It dropped from the update earlier. Flop.

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Austin]

any estimates for monday yet?

[cookie]

1 minute ago, Austin said:

any estimates for monday yet?

It's not even 4 P.M on the east coast.