WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

[Cmasterclay]

12 minutes ago, Eric Mouse said:

Feel like you said that before, and nothing has happened that has indicated that anything would ever change. Especially when most of the movies coming out are either established brands with built-in fanbases (Marvels, Hunger Games, Wonka) or animated kids titles that don't really need the actors out there pushing it (Trolls, Wish, Migration). Even stuff like Poor Things or Saltburn seem unlikely, since they have big awards campaigns going on (not like these would make anything anyways, since they're not nostalgic toy commercials). Color Purple and Napoleon even have big household name producers and directors to put out into the press as well. They're all guaranteed to make less than they would in normalcy, but frankly the studios don't give a darn about theaters to begin with and would let them die for a quick buck if possible.

 

January onwards though? I agree with you. Stuff like Night Swim and Mean Girls could easily be pushed to February or March, which in turn will push back the March movies, the summer slate, etc.

I would be stunned if Napoleon or Wonka or maybe even Color Purple came out, but maybe I'm wrong. I agree with you about the smaller films who need to qualify for awards and the animated/superhero fare.

[Jonwo]

12 minutes ago, Eric Mouse said:

Feel like you said that before, and nothing has happened that has indicated that anything would ever change. Especially when most of the movies coming out are either established brands with built-in fanbases (Marvels, Hunger Games, Wonka) or animated kids titles that don't really need the actors out there pushing it (Trolls, Wish, Migration). Even stuff like Poor Things or Saltburn seem unlikely, since they have big awards campaigns going on (not like these would make anything anyways, since they're not nostalgic toy commercials). Color Purple and Napoleon even have big household name producers and directors to put out into the press as well. They're all guaranteed to make less than they would in normalcy, but frankly the studios don't give a darn about theaters to begin with and would let them die for a quick buck if possible.

 

January onwards though? I agree with you. Stuff like Night Swim and Mean Girls could easily be pushed to February or March, which in turn will push back the March movies, the summer slate, etc.

Trolls for example has already been released OS so pushing it back is not happening. 

 

To me, if the marketing campaign is in full swing, it's not moving.

[ZattMurdock]

There is no way in hell that The Marvels moves. I do think Cmasterclay has a point though. I just don’t see Aquaman 2 been delayed because it’s been sent to die.

[ThomasNicole]

Well SAG seems to had 2 weird decisions today, and not in a good moment.

 

Completely writing-off the A Listers proposition so quickly was weird, sure that isn’t good enough but it’s definitely a start at least to make further negotiations a bit easier (yeah i know the studios should be the ones to pay and i know it’s a complex and absurd situation, but there are people really needing help and honestly it’s better getting some money from anyone than nothing for who knows how longer). 
 

And this baffling wardrobe Halloween thing that it’s beyond stupid.

 

 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Well SAG seems to had 2 weird decisions today, and not in a good moment.

 

Completely writing-off the A Listers proposition so quickly was weird, sure that isn’t good enough but it’s definitely a start at least to make further negotiations a bit easier (yeah i know the studios should be the ones to pay and i know it’s a complex and absurd situation, but there are people really needing help and honestly it’s better getting some money from anyone than nothing for who knows how longer). 
 

And this baffling wardrobe Halloween thing that it’s beyond stupid.

 

 

They should use Halloween to subvert and bring attention to the strike. Instead, they are coming off as a bunch of unfun dorks.

[Eric Burnett]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I would be stunned if Napoleon or Wonka or maybe even Color Purple came out, but maybe I'm wrong. I agree with you about the smaller films who need to qualify for awards and the animated/superhero fare.

I mean even outside of the fact all these movies have gotten second trailers and are full steam ahead with magazine covers and the final stretch of ads, this seems unlikely. Like this isn't a COVID scenario.

 

I already said why for Napoleon and Color Purple. Oprah's for sure gonna do some wacky sketch with Jimmy Kimmel. But also, without going too off-topic, it's probably in the best position of any of the other holiday movies this season in terms of awareness and hype and targeting the biggest current moviegoing market. Plus, frankly, it's the most Chirstmassy not-Christmas movie to ever exist since Greatest Showman. Like I can't imagine this resonating the same way in March.

[ThomasNicole]

Studios know how much they’ll lose in each movie released during strike due to problems in marketing, that notice came out months ago, they counted at least 10% less in box office revenues.
 

I think it’s absurd to think that suddenly the results for one gigantic R Rated movie made for Apple TV will make them reverse a decision they made months ago, fully knowing what would happen and how much would cost.

 

Most of this year movies are already spending a lot in marketing as we speak, and as we all know, it doesn’t have that much of an impact overseas. We should care about next year slate, that will be ugly.

 

I’m sure we’ll have a movie here and there moving (The Bikeriders yesterday for example), but that cascade effect is hyperbolic.

Edited October 19, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Studios know how much they’ll lose in each movie released during strike due to problems in marketing, that notice came out months ago, they counted at least 10% less in box office revenues.
 

I think it’s absurd to think that suddenly the results for one gigantic R Rated movie make for Apple TV will make them reverse a decision they make months ago, fully knowing what would happen and how much would cost.

 

Most of this year movies are already spending a lot in marketing as we speak, and as we all know, it doesn’t have that much of an impact overseas. We should care about next year slate, that will be ugly.

 

I’m sure we’ll have a movie here and there moving (The Bikeriders yesterday for example), but that cascade effect is hyperbolic.

Oh, if they delay more stuff it won’t be because of this weekend, it’s just that even the next year’s release schedule is becoming a mess. It’s a domino effect. I definitely can see more stuff getting delayed.

[Cmasterclay]

I agree the biggest impacts will be next year's slate - which is why product is going to be needed to fill those dates, and that is why I think we could see more delays. And yes, that could include shifting Wonka an entire year, because it is indeed a holiday release. Dune also had second trailers and magazine covers come out, so I don't take that as solid proof, though it is at least some evidence I agree. Like I said, I have no inside info and I could absolutely be wrong. But releasing these movies without promotion is throwing away millions for the bigger ones like KOTFM and Napoleon and Wonka. Maybe they are just......fine with that? Can't say it makes any sense to me! I just want the actors to get paid fairly. Clearly, they're gonna need movies to release in 2024, and they might have to dip into this year to get em.

 

Generally, 2024 is shaping up to be a historically bad year (Trump gets re-elected, two wars, etc.) so if you expect any bad things, it's a safe bet to think they'll come true!

Edited October 19, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[Potiki]

SAG seemingly outright rejecting removal of the $1m cap and bottom up residuals is crazy to me, given they are trying to make acting a liveable profession for the, of lack of a better term, middle class. 

 

I know obviously it wouldn't solve all the concerns of the SAG/AMPTP negotiations as they still need to sort out better streaming residuals, I still think they should follow WGA and have a viewership/performance threshold rather than a % of subscribers/revenue, but taking the top actors proposal would likely speed up negotiations, also I disagree that it would leave them in a worse position in the future as unless I'm reading things incorrectly both of the proposals would be permanent changes to how things are done going forward rather than dependent on certain big name stars. 

[Jonwo]

15 minutes ago, Eric Mouse said:

I mean even outside of the fact all these movies have gotten second trailers and are full steam ahead with magazine covers and the final stretch of ads, this seems unlikely. Like this isn't a COVID scenario.

 

I already said why for Napoleon and Color Purple. Oprah's for sure gonna do some wacky sketch with Jimmy Kimmel. But also, without going too off-topic, it's probably in the best position of any of the other holiday movies this season in terms of awareness and hype and targeting the biggest current moviegoing market. Plus, frankly, it's the most Chirstmassy not-Christmas movie to ever exist since Greatest Showman. Like I can't imagine this resonating the same way in March.

Surely the most Christmassy not-Christmassy movie is Wonka.

[WittyUsername]

4 hours ago, Jonwo said:

It will end, it's hyperbolic to think it won't.

I thought it went without saying that I was being hyperbolic? 

[cooldude97]

3 hours ago, stephanos13 said:

Sag-Aftra leadership is beyond a joke. A clown show. 

 

I didn't think they could beat WGA leadership antics but they do it with ease.

stop trying to make yourself look like a anti-union clown

[cooldude97]

anyway I think what Clooney did and SAG rejecting it and the Halloween stuff unfortunately just gave the studios a leg up on the next negotiations 

[MovieMan89]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

Deadpool 3 has lost its May date according to Deadline. Shocking, I know.

Yeah this is getting ugly. Get this shit figured out AMPTP/SAG (heavier emphasis on AMPTP)

[cooldude97]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah this is getting ugly. Get this shit figured out AMPTP/SAG (heavier emphasis on AMPTP)

the movie wasn't going to make that date if the strikes finished last week anyway 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, cooldude97 said:

the movie wasn't going to make that date if the strikes finished last week anyway 

The point is that was one of the only big hitters for the first half of next year. Disney esp is gonna be going for a record low next year if DP3 doesn’t stick to the cal 

[Jonwo]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The point is that was one of the only big hitters for the first half of next year. Disney esp is gonna be going for a record low next year if DP3 doesn’t stick to the cal 

Disney isn't going to that badly affected without DP3 next year. 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Disney isn't going to that badly affected without DP3 next year. 

IO2 will have to carry their whole year. Otherwise they’re banking on a huge breakout(s).

[emoviefan]

Remember a few weeks ago after the Writer deal how things were looking up and we could be positive. Those were the days. Heck even a little over a week ago I still thought there was no way the SAG strike lasts until next year. Now who the hell knows.