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kayumanggi

Weekend Thread | April 28 - 30 | Weekend Actuals | 40.84M THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE | 12.13M EVIL DEAD RISE | 5.10M RETURN OF THE JEDI

By kayumanggi, in Numbers and Data

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Nate Straight-to-DVD

Nate

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Big question is mario and 600m domestic. I would rather take next weekend hold when it loses all the PLFs and then see what is needed to achieve that. I have a feeling it will be around for a long time and weekdays will start to get better late next month. But it needs crazy holds after next weekend to keep it in play. I wont rule it out as Top Gun Maverick did not look like 700m after say Thor opened. it grossed just 15.5m and was at 597.4m weekend. But it just kept chugging along for months and did like 9x that weekend !!! So I wont rule it out until the box office becomes too small to make a turn around.  

You'd need to see it having 30% holds weekly here on out, and 600million is a lock. 35% weekly drops from here, and it'll fall just short.
(I think *technically*, if my math is mathing right, 33% or worse and it misses. Let's say 35% to be safe though.)

That's tough, it would require Mario to hold better than it has so far. Not impossible, but it still feels more probably that it goes just under. That being said, if Mario nabs a number with a 4 in front of this weekend, it shows Mario is doing what it needs to do.
 

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KP1025 Box Office Gold

KP1025

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Nate said:

You'd need to see it having 30% holds weekly here on out, and 600million is a lock. 35% weekly drops from here, and it'll fall just short.
(I think *technically*, if my math is mathing right, 33% or worse and it misses. Let's say 35% to be safe though.)

That's tough, it would require Mario to hold better than it has so far. Not impossible, but it still feels more probably that it goes just under. That being said, if Mario nabs a number with a 4 in front of this weekend, it shows Mario is doing what it needs to do.
 

 

I feel like if Mario hasn't managed 30% or better drops with no competition, it's only going to get harder with the onslaught of films this summer. The weekend after GotG3 opens is its best chance for a sub 30% drop before it starts facing heavy competition. That said, it is easier to have softer drops late in the run once the weekly numbers have settled down to modest levels.

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vafrow Box Office Gold

vafrow

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

I feel like if Mario hasn't managed 30% or better drops with no competition, it's only going to get harder with the onslaught of films this summer. The weekend after GotG3 opens is its best chance for a sub 30% drop before it starts facing heavy competition. That said, it is easier to have softer drops late in the run once the weekly numbers have settled down to modest levels.

 

Agreed. 30% drops would mean mean it's still making around $3M by the time Elemental comes out, but by that point, theatres likely have Little Mermaid and Spiderverse as priorities. Very few places will have room for four kids films at the same time.

 

Realistically, it's the back to back weekends of Little Mermaid and Across the Spiderverse that will see it shed too many theatres, that will accelerate the drops.

 

That said, it's likely going to stay in the top five leading up to that, which is an incredible feat.

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