GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I'd love to be wrong about Gv3, but give me what Charlie is smoking. The performance of Mario this weekend should if nothing else, highlight just how much on some levels Fast and TLM will hurt before the June death march. 300m should be the goal. This whole thing is reminding me of Pirates 3, minus the bad wom.... it was dicey to get to 300m for a bit with that one and it opened way larger. 

I think most people are too focused in a leggy run more than a super sized second week before it have competition.

 

If this drop 15% on SUN like Empire is saying due to WOM (and Charlie agreed), what it didn’t make on OW for all the reasons we discussed for weeks will result in spillover for weekdays. 

This just needs a strong second weekend (-45%) and will be at 215-220M by next SUN and +240M before Fast X opens. 
 

It can behave like a typical well received MCU sequel after that due to competition and still have a shot reaching 350M. 

I do think the more likely scenario is 310-320, but i can easily see where the optimistic projection is coming from and is very possible, it just heavily depends of the next 11 days.

 

[Borobudur]

I agree WOM is great for GOTG3 BUT <20% Sunday drop is another level of hold. It is also kind of weird people react to GOTG3's reception like some kind of A+ WOM event. The reception is almost par with Avatar 2 that score A cinemascore (same as GOTG3), 91% Post Trak (same as GOTG3) and 92% RT audience score. (95% currently). Yet I remember many claim A2's WOM was mixed. 

Edited May 7, 2023 by Borobudur

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah and MoM had it infinitely easier for competition overall. GotG is good to get slammed harder than just about any early May movie ever starting Memorial onwards.

 

Still not sure what studios are thinking with that June slate this year, it’s incredibly stupid. Especially now in a writer’s strike. Paramount deserves Transformers to be an epic fail if they’re really that stupid to not at least see how they’ve sentenced that to a massacre with that release. 

With all due respect, the studios aren't going to move all of their 2023 films to 2024. 

 

 

[Cap]

57 minutes ago, juanw said:

 nvm

You know as Admin, I can read your edits. And thanks, I do pride myself on being a cold hearted bitch. 😘

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

With all due respect, the studios aren't going to move all of their 2023 films to 2024. 

 

 

Memorial through June was stupidly scheduled before any strike. Now it’s just complete nonsense. Zero reason for studios to throw out that many of the biggest releases on the slate in such a short time frame. 

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Memorial through June was stupidly scheduled before any strike. Now it’s just complete nonsense. Zero reason for studios to throw out that many of the biggest releases on the slate in such a short time frame. 

They won’t because delay them would cost millions in residuals and wasted marketing pieces and they’re already losing millions daily due to strike, simple 

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

GOTG only dropped 17% on Sunday in Australia, so a similar drop domestically would not be out of line or unexpected. 

[Mr Roark]

A $850M final for GotG falls exactly in the same category as all those “Mario will hit $700M DOM” from a couple of weeks ago.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Mr Roark said:

A $850M final for GotG falls exactly in the same category as all those “Mario will hit $700M DOM” from a couple of weeks ago.

Except that would require less than 3x multiplier both DOM and OS. And OS had an A+ type of reception.

 

Mario would need nearly 5x to reach 700M DOM

 

Nonsense comparisson 

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

They won’t because delay them would cost millions in residuals and wasted marketing pieces and they’re already losing millions daily due to strike, simple 

 

 

At the very least Transformers needs to move. They have guaranteed it sub 300 WW with that release, if not sub 200. DOM will be a bloodbath 

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

At the very least Transformers needs to move. They have guaranteed it sub 300 WW with that release, if not sub 200. DOM will be a bloodbath 

It's out in just over three weeks, Paramount aren't going to delay it, end of story.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

They have guaranteed it sub 300 WW with that release, if not sub 200.

 

[Jonwo]

I don't know why people think the summer slate will be affected by the writer's strike, the films are done in terms of being a finished product. 

[Mulder]

10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

At the very least Transformers needs to move. They have guaranteed it sub 300 WW with that release, if not sub 200. DOM will be a bloodbath 

Saying it'd go Sub 200 is laughable.

[Eric Prime]

The reason why June is so crowded is pretty simple. Studios want to maximize summer weekdays for their movies and June is arguably the best month to do such a thing. 10 wide releases isn't all that different from pre-COVID Junes. 2019 had 9 movies, 2018 had 12, 2017 had 13. And honestly, for movies like Boogeyman, Blackening, No Hard Feelings, and Strays, their theatrical runs are basically just glorified advertisements for their PVOD/digital runs.

 

So really we got 5 bigly movies competing. And a couple of them will probably bomb and legs will probably be weaksauce for most of them due to smaller audiences and emphasis on PLFs, but that's just how the cookie crumbles. It's really not as crazy as it seems IMO and it's not like putting them a month or two later would magically make things easier or make them gross significantly higher.

[Cooper Legion]

3 hours ago, grim22 said:

What BS here from Deadline

 

 

 

LMFAOooooo  

 

If Gotg3 came out last feb it would be easy 200M -> 500 DOM 1.25 WW

[kayumanggi]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

At the very least Transformers needs to move. They have guaranteed it sub 300 WW with that release, if not sub 200. DOM will be a bloodbath 

 

BUMBLEBEE even managed to make 468M worldwide.

[Mr Roark]

20 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Except that would require less than 3x multiplier both DOM and OS. And OS had an A+ type of reception.

 

Mario would need nearly 5x to reach 700M DOM

 

Nonsense comparisson 

You missed my point. The only nonsense is believing those two predictions were/are going to happen.

Lot of people inhere truly believed Mario would’ve outgrossed A2 dom but people have short memory as well.

[kayumanggi]

 

Finally crossed 200M. 

[MovieMan89]

10 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Saying it'd go Sub 200 is laughable.

No it’s not. Getting people to care about Transformers in 2023 was always a huge reach. Getting them to care in the busiest June of all time? Nah. Shazam proved what happens when you release a movie with no interest. Sub 60 DOM if WOM is meh or worse. Can’t count on China for the rescue anymore either.