THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[Firepower]

Would be funny if Barbie is another Snakes on Plane.

[Carlangonz]

Some of the comments on Barbie kinda remind me when Turning Red came out and guys were saying  "I don't get the appeal of this and can't relate so don't like it" 

[Barbie]

i also feel like disney+ has 'cheapfied' disney brand...

[Eric Quinn]

2 hours ago, Kon said:

 

Why are people so sure a white Ariel will make a smaller DOM?

 

I've understood you don't want to accept the possibility the change of race have so much negative influence, but it isn't so difficult to believe that's one the reasons.

 

At least, it seems the change of race gained so much audience as it lost. I mean, the share of white people seems to be smaller.

 

2 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Via Deadline

 

Is 26% Caucasian really bad for a big OW where black audiences came out in huge numbers? Also that Latino % seems impressive enough.

 

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah I was gonna ask as well what is the last major blockbuster we have seen with that low of a Caucasian share? 

 

Caucasian shares have actually been down across the board post-COVID, to the point where most big movies typically have their shares in the 30% range.

 

Using this year's top 10 biggest openings (which I know, it's still early, blah blah blah)

 

1. Mario: 30% white

2. Guardians 3: 41%

3. Ant-Man 3: 34% 

4. Little Mermaid: 26%

5. John Wick 4: 32%

6. Fast X: 29%

7. Creed 3: 21%

8. Scream VI: 38%

9. Dungeons and Dragons: 48%

10. M3GAN: 37%

 

And if you want to see last year's...

 

Doctor Strange 2: 35% white

Black Panther 2: 20%

Jurassic World 3: 41%

Thor 4: 39%

Avatar 2: 33%

The Batman: 41%

Top Gun 2: 66%

Minions 2: 35%

Sonic 2: 29%

Black Adam: 25%

 

Spider-Man 3: 32% white

Venom 2: 40%

Black Widow: 46%

Shang-Chi: 36%

Eternals: 51%

F9: 35%

No Time to Die: 52%

Halloween Kills: 38%

A Quiet Place 2: 44%

Ghostbusters Afterlife: 48%

 

Using some pre-COVID openings...

 

Avengers Endgame: 44% white

The Lion King: 42%

Star Wars 9: 56%

Captain Marvel: 47%

Frozen 2: 52%

Toy Story 4: 49%

Joker: 44%

Spider-Man 2: 43%

Aladdin: 42%

It 2: 47%

 

No Way Home losing 11% share from Far from Home is pretty extreme, while John Wick 3 had 42%, then 4 years later loses 10% of white viewers. That's a lot!

 

The farther you go back, the harder it is to find race OW demos, but Sonic 1 had 42%, Black Panther had 35%, Ant-Man 2 was 51%, Creed 2 was 38%. I'm sure Beauty and the Beast was 40s, probably even more 50s. There is definitely a huge chunk of Caucasian audiences that just never show up for the movies anymore, which means that any gains from OS from casting a white Ariel, where Disney gets less money from, is offset by a lower DOM total.

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Would be funny if Barbie is another Snakes on Plane.

But, it's nothing like Snakes on a Plane. Cocaine Bear was the "another Snakes on a Plane." 

[ringedmortality]

16 minutes ago, TMP said:

Yeah, i just think gosling’s profile’s increased a lot recently

 

What do you mean? After First Man he took a four year break before The Gray Man came out. If you mean all the "literally memes" then lol

[Last Man Standing]

2 minutes ago, Prince Eric said:

 

 

No Way Home losing 11% share from Far from Home is pretty extreme, while John Wick 3 had 42%, then 4 years later loses 10% of white viewers. That's a lot!

 

In both cases I don't think the number of white viewers is any smaller is it? More people from other races just joined in.

[TMP]

11 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Oh, i'm pretty sure the men who'll see Barbie will be insignificant. But the movie doesn't need men. Women will be enough to make it a hit

These takes are crazy to me because Barbie also operates as a date night movie in a way that TLM just does not. It’s a broad comedy, which will help immensely with crossover appeal, in a way that “broadway style musical with no set-pieces” was never going to. 

[Last Man Standing]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

 

What do you mean? After First Man he took a four year break before The Gray Man came out. If you mean all the "literally memes" then lol

Do people not remember feminist Ryan Gosling memes? He's been memed for a long ass time on the internet, it hasn't really done his movies any favors.

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, Prince Eric said:

 

 

 

Caucasian shares have actually been down across the board post-COVID, to the point where most big movies typically have their shares in the 30% range.

 

Using this year's top 10 biggest openings (which I know, it's still early, blah blah blah)

 

1. Mario: 30% white

2. Guardians 3: 41%

3. Ant-Man 3: 34% 

4. Little Mermaid: 26%

5. John Wick 4: 32%

6. Fast X: 29%

7. Creed 3: 21%

8. Scream VI: 38%

9. Dungeons and Dragons: 48%

10. M3GAN: 37%

 

And if you want to see last year's...

 

Doctor Strange 2: 35% white

Black Panther 2: 20%

Jurassic World 3: 41%

Thor 4: 39%

Avatar 2: 33%

The Batman: 41%

Top Gun 2: 66%

Minions 2: 35%

Sonic 2: 29%

Black Adam: 25%

 

Spider-Man 3: 32% white

Venom 2: 40%

Black Widow: 46%

Shang-Chi: 36%

Eternals: 51%

F9: 35%

No Time to Die: 52%

Halloween Kills: 38%

A Quiet Place 2: 44%

Ghostbusters Afterlife: 48%

 

Using some pre-COVID openings...

 

Avengers Endgame: 44% white

The Lion King: 42%

Star Wars 9: 56%

Captain Marvel: 47%

Frozen 2: 52%

Toy Story 4: 49%

Joker: 44%

Spider-Man 2: 43%

Aladdin: 42%

It 2: 47%

 

No Way Home losing 11% share from Far from Home is pretty extreme, while John Wick 3 had 42%, then 4 years later loses 10% of white viewers. That's a lot!

 

The farther you go back, the harder it is to find race OW demos, but Sonic 1 had 42%, Black Panther had 35%, Ant-Man 2 was 51%, Creed 2 was 38%. I'm sure Beauty and the Beast was 40s, probably even more 50s. There is definitely a huge chunk of Caucasian audiences that just never show up for the movies anymore, which means that any gains from OS from casting a white Ariel, where Disney gets less money from, is offset by a lower DOM total.

TGM... Wow.

[Austin]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

There are people that don’t go to cinemas until they’ve seen the movie on PVOD? What? 

What's funny is I did this with Puss in boots: The Last Wish. I got it on PVOD, but I liked it so much I took a friend to the theater to see it again and paid for their ticket because I liked it so much.

[TMP]

3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

What do you mean? After First Man he took a four year break before The Gray Man came out. If you mean all the "literally memes" then lol

I just mean i’ve seen a lot more posts about BR 2049 in the last few years, it feels like something that gained a lot of traction online since it’s initial bombing. Grey Man was also a big hit on netflix. We’ll see if it’s online only, but i definitely think his profile’s increased

[Eric Quinn]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

TGM... Wow.

Movie theater owners looking over the crowds last Memorial Day

 

[Marathon]

Barbie looks nice from a production design point of view. The visuals alone could justify going to see it.

[ringedmortality]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

I just mean i’ve seen a lot more posts about BR 2049 in the last few years

It was pretty big online when it released. Always been more of an internet thing.

[MovieMan89]

9 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

But, it's nothing like Snakes on a Plane. Cocaine Bear was the "another Snakes on a Plane." 

Yeah, a SOAP comparison seems comical given that was pre social media era. TikTok in particular is not to be ignored when it comes to trends that can help box office (see Minions and TGM from last year)

[Eric Quinn]

This actually makes me feel like the whole "Disney movies lost their audience because DeSantis/Republicans" doesn't really hold much weight. Because that audience sector doesn't even go to the movies anymore anyways? Like moviegoing skews young, nonwhite, and more towards urban/metropolitan areas, all of which typically skew more left and Democrat. So they are the people who aren't typically into those gross Nazi tactics. Really, I'm in the camp that it's because Disney has the second-biggest streaming service on the planet and everybody knows they will be home in a couple months. And frankly, even if you put out the window for 6 months or more, I still don't think that's enough to shake that issue.

 

Iger made his bed and now he has to live with it.

[Eric Quinn]

I'm not saying Barbie's gonna do bad, but I think the whole "social media is bigger now" thing doesn't really track. Minions 2 performed like most of the other Despicable Me movies. M3GAN's opening and gross wasn't all that atypical for an original horror title. And even Cocaine Bear, which was lauded as this huge success story bolstered by TikTok memes, its opening was only $2 million more than Snakes on a Plane if you adjust for 2006 dollars. Just feels like in hindsight, the whole "wow TikTok is such a huge influence!" doesn't really track much.

[Firepower]

18 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

But, it's nothing like Snakes on a Plane. Cocaine Bear was the "another Snakes on a Plane." 

I mean internet hype translating into nothing at box office, not the actual content of the movie.

[MovieMan89]

Cocaine Bear/Morbius/SOAP etc were niche nerdy guys making memes on the internet. Yes, that has never shown to translate to box office. Barbie social media traction is totally different.