ogkalu Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) TLM dropped better INT on Mon for 10.9M (around 13M for aladdin). anyone know aladdin numbers for the rest of the week ? Edited May 31, 2023 by ogkalu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 11.5M 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liiviig 1998 Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 Good drop . Still below Aladdin dialies and spiderverse will ensure this has a big drop . Third weekend is where we shall see it's trajectory either 300m+ or sub 300m. Will see how the weeks go will it flop or breakeven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 2.6M 2.5M 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 58 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said: Good drop . Still below Aladdin dialies and spiderverse will ensure this has a big drop . Third weekend is where we shall see it's trajectory either 300m+ or sub 300m. Will see how the weeks go will it flop or breakeven. What's the breakeven point? I know we just estimate those but I assume around 500M~? If so, given studios keep much more of what's grossed DOM, wouldn't it better that unlike FX which is doing pretty poorly DOM but much better OS, that TLM is going to make more DOM than OS? Ideally, of course, it would do what's gonna DOM and do much better OS but I think you know what i mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 1 hour ago, ogkalu said: TLM dropped better INT on Mon for 10.9M (around 13M for aladdin). anyone know aladdin numbers for the rest of the week ? Billie back on the menu? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kon Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 22 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: What's the breakeven point? I know we just estimate those but I assume around 500M~? If so, given studios keep much more of what's grossed DOM, wouldn't it better that unlike FX which is doing pretty poorly DOM but much better OS, that TLM is going to make more DOM than OS? Ideally, of course, it would do what's gonna DOM and do much better OS but I think you know what i mean... If FX and TLM have similar box office, the studio would receive more money from TLM. In theory, it is better to be successful domestically than internationally. That said, the studio will be dissapointed to be an international flop. They receive a smaller percentage from foreign markets, which means that they will receive little money from a small box office. PS: We should also consider the budget. FX has 340 million as budget. Edited May 31, 2023 by Kon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, Kon said: If FX and TLM have similar box office, the studio would receive more money from TLM. In theory, it is better to be successful domestically than internationally. However, the studio is not going to be happy to be an international flop. They receive a smaller percentage from foreign markets, which means that they will receive little money from a small box office. PS: We should also consider the budget. FX has 340 million as budget. Yes. It seems obvious to me that FX overall with its budget especially likely isn't going make much. It's biggest share OS being from China from which I think the studio gets something like 20% to 25% isn't the greatest news either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) The discrepancy between dom share and OS share is why the formula is 2.5 x budget not just 2 x budget. so going by that, TLM breakeven point is 625M WW (or whichever gets to that number) Edited May 31, 2023 by Valonqar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Valonqar said: The discrepancy between dom share and OS share is why the formula is 2.5 x budget not just 2 x budget. so going by that, TLM breakeven point is 625M WW (or whichever gets to that number) That 2.5x assumes a movie will gross a larger or much larger share of it's WW total OS though, correct? Which, in the odd case of TLM will not be the case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liiviig 1998 Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 43 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: What's the breakeven point? I know we just estimate those but I assume around 500M~? If so, given studios keep much more of what's grossed DOM, wouldn't it better that unlike FX which is doing pretty poorly DOM but much better OS, that TLM is going to make more DOM than OS? Ideally, of course, it would do what's gonna DOM and do much better OS but I think you know what i mean... At least 550m -625m . 500m is to low. DOM/OS split won't be that wide some 55/45 even close to 50/50. Something like this 325/275 325/300 300/300 300/275 285/275 For 500m it needed something close to 400m domestic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChipDerby Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 26 minutes ago, Valonqar said: The discrepancy between dom share and OS share is why the formula is 2.5 x budget not just 2 x budget. so going by that, TLM breakeven point is 625M WW (or whichever gets to that number) There is no formula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kon Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said: At least 550m -625m . 500m is to low. DOM/OS split won't be that wide some 55/45 even close to 50/50. Something like this 325/275 325/300 300/300 300/275 285/275 For 500m it needed something close to 400m domestic. In fact, if the total box office is 500m, I would say 400m domestic wouldn't be enough to breakeven. The average share from foreign markets would be 40% (being generous). Edited May 31, 2023 by Kon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Chaz said: TLM is going to have great legs. I’ve not seen a single negative review from anybody. that itself might be indicative of a problem; pretty much no one but those who were pretty much guaranteed to like having seen it yet Edited May 31, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ogkalu Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Valonqar said: Billie back on the menu? Lol. I reckon that 13m Mon is lower than what it actually did (Charlie's estimate at the time) but it still held better. From this tweet, it grossed 61M Mon-Thur. Maybe 38M+ is doable for TLM if it continues to drop better. We'll see Edited May 31, 2023 by ogkalu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontofan Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 When is the last time a 300 million domestic grosser made less over seas or like much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said: That 2.5x assumes a movie will gross a larger or much larger share of it's WW total OS though, correct? Which, in the odd case of TLM will not be the case... I think that you are onto something that that forumula isn't as simple as it looks. They certainly factor in different % of the gross they get from various markets. But even so, they need at least twice the budget. so 250M budget needs 500M gross if studio keeps 50% of the gross and we know that they keep less dom after the first 10 days. Edited May 31, 2023 by Valonqar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 15 minutes ago, Torontofan said: When is the last time a 300 million domestic grosser made less over seas or like much less. For films specifically in the $300 million range, the last one was probably American Sniper. $350 million DOM and $197 million OS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Kon said: If FX and TLM have similar box office, the studio would receive more money from TLM. In theory, it is better to be successful domestically than internationally. That said, the studio will be dissapointed to be an international flop. They receive a smaller percentage from foreign markets, which means that they will receive little money from a small box office. PS: We should also consider the budget. FX has 340 million as budget. Fast X should get to around 750m, but TLM would only get to around 500 with a generous 3x multiplier + 20 million Japan. Assuming 150m DOM/140m CHINA/460m INT for Fast X and 270m DOM/5m CHINA/225 INT for TLM, calculating it out Fast X should receive ≈300m in theatrical revenue vs ≈250m for TLM. However, Fast X will likely end up losing more money theatrically because of the high budget, but both are likely ending up as money losers theatrically. Out of the big 3 May tentpoles this year, only GOTGV3 is looking good. Edited May 31, 2023 by Bob Train 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 3 hours ago, Chaz said: TLM is going to have great legs. I’ve not seen a single negative review from anybody. DND also had unanimous acclaim but that had poor legs. Some properties are inherently frontloaded, which means good WOM can only do so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
