Weekend Numbers | Weekend Estimates | 120.5M SPIDER-MAN: ATSV | 40.6M TLM | 12.3M THE BOOGEYMAN | 10.2M GOTG III

[Shawn Robbins]

On 6/3/2023 at 2:15 PM, baumer said:

@Shawn in your expert opinion, what do you think the legs will be on this one? And by this one I mean spider-verse. Do you think it's going to be front loaded and not have a massive multiplier? Or do you think that because of the word of mouth being so strong the multiplier could be astronomical?

 

As you probably know I have not been following the box office anywhere near like I used to. But my opinion in theory is that because this one opened up about three times more than the last one did, it's inevitably going to be quite front loaded. I have no idea if that's going to happen but that's just how I see it. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Hey, my friend! Long time.

 

That's a hard one to answer. I don't quite see it having the multiplier Incredibles 2 had (unless this coming weekend is bonkers strong), partly because Spidey is more fan-driven and over 20 minutes longer (for those without kids or peers who have kids, don't underestimate the importance of runtime for little ones). Plus, the gamut of competition ahead. Those older Spidey fans will spread out across Transformers, Flash, Indy, Mission, and Oppenheimer in the weeks ahead.

 

But there's no denying word of mouth is great. I'm treating it like a strongly received, mid-tier MCU film at this stage. Losing premium screens is going to hurt, but I do think legs after that will stabilize through July. $350-375M should be the bare minimum, and I could be a believer in $400M+.