Weekend Numbers | Weekend Estimates | 120.5M SPIDER-MAN: ATSV | 40.6M TLM | 12.3M THE BOOGEYMAN | 10.2M GOTG III

[Flamengo81]

1 hour ago, von Kenni said:

 

If you haven't read or listened yet the interview behind the first (NPR) link, I recommend checking it out. It gives a compelling argument why the original licensing of the movie rights made sense for the comic book company Marvel in the 90s. I.e. how the decision with the context at the time can be argued to be right even if in hindsight a decade later can be viewed as a mistake.

 

Regarding the merch licensing, I'm not sure if you're referring to something that I wrote, or just generally pointing out. I didn't emphasize the merch side and some pages ago on this thread (TLM discussion) made the opposite point like you that yes, people tend to exaggerate at least the direct financial relevance of merch licensing. The baseline licensing fee is around 5-15% and sometimes lower or higher. Depends on the merch type too.

 

I don't know Spidey merch numbers but a billion per movie sounds a lot. If that's true, then Disney actually makes a nice addition to the movie revenue. Especially if Disney still has a "Disney premium" in toy licensing that I read was even 25% in some cases. $100m-$200m per movie is still a nice addition if the 25% from NWH gets Disney/Marvel around $150m from other revenue sources....but maybe someone can find out what the actual merch sales numbers are. And double check if Marvel has all merch rights or limited.

 

...with a quick Google: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/superhero-earns-13-billion-a-748281/

 

I have a link to merchandise sales of Spider-Man, Batman and Superman (and many other huge IPs) from 2016-2018, when I get home I will search and send here if you like. 

But on the top of my mind, it's something like 1.3-1.4B for Spider-Man, 900-1B for Batman and 500-600M for Superman.

[von Kenni]

4 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

I have a link to merchandise sales of Spider-Man, Batman and Superman (and many other huge IPs) from 2016-2018, when I get home I will search and send here if you like. 

But on the top of my mind, it's something like 1.3-1.4B for Spider-Man, 900-1B for Batman and 500-600M for Superman.

Yes, please. It'll be very interesting to see those numbers.

[Goldbricker]

6 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

I have a link to merchandise sales of Spider-Man, Batman and Superman (and many other huge IPs) from 2016-2018, when I get home I will search and send here if you like. 

But on the top of my mind, it's something like 1.3-1.4B for Spider-Man, 900-1B for Batman and 500-600M for Superman.

Can you post the link here because 2014 and 2015 numbers were quite different than this?

[von Kenni]

On 6/4/2023 at 8:26 PM, von Kenni said:

 

If TLM gets over $300m DOM, it's okay for DOM. OS is where the potential flop comes into the picture. From the studio's point of view, this was greenlit with the expectation that it would make around a billion WW following the likes of Aladdin and Beauty and the Beast, especially given the huge budget of $250m (Aladdin $182m, BatB $160m).

 

If TLM gets to the $950-700m region WW, it'll be from success to okay for the studio. Under the $700m an internal blame game will start and under the $600m mark heads are going to roll (financial flop region).

 

Without knowing all the needed details, the breakeven point is around $600m +-$25m but we'll know much better when we see how the home entertainment sales go and how the actual budgets look from Pinewood Studios reporting in the UK in the upcoming months/half a year from now.

 

Scenario for the $600m WW breakeven point:

 

BO revenue: $300m DOM * 55% + $300m OS * 40% = $285m

TV & related rights/licensing fees: $150m

Home Entertainment revenue (DVD, BR, etc.): $75m

UK production repays: $50m

Other (e.g. merch): $15m

 

Total revenue: $575m

 

Production budget: $250m reported + 10% typical overruns = $275m

Marketing budget: $150m

Prints: $15m

Home entertainment marketing: $20m

Manufacturing (DVD, BR): $25m

Participation & residuals (crew, cast & key people income share): $35m

Studio overhead: $25m

Capital expenses & misc. (loans, capital interests, etc.): $30m (partly accounting method to discount the future tail revenue as present value)

 

Total costs: $575m

 

Looking at the needed revenue numbers, knowing that the original TLM had about 40% of the box office of the original Aladdin which skewed more to DOM than OS compared to the original TLM and BatB, who on earth greenlit this oversized budget compared to those latter two?

 

Looks like TLM is heading to the "internal blame game" range of $700-600m WW with a chance of ending up under the "heads are going to roll" mark of $600m (possible breakeven point and threshold for financial flop). Though we'll know where that mark ultimately is in about 6 months from now. UK incentives, merch, and home ent. sales might just do the difference and lower the BO breakeven point closer to $550m. Disappointment for the studio in any case after years of work and expecting "easy" profits. I bet no one wouldn't have expected it to fight even to get breakeven when this was greenlit.

[Mulder]

Just now, von Kenni said:

 

Looks like TLM is heading to the "internal blame game" range of $700-600m WW with a chance of ending up under the "heads are going to roll" mark of $600m (possible breakeven point and threshold for financial flop). Though we'll know where that mark ultimately is in about 6 months from now. UK incentives, merch, and home ent. sales might just do the difference and lower the BO breakeven point closer to $550m. Disappointment for the studio in any case after years of work and expecting "easy" profits. I bet no one wouldn't have expected it to fight even to get breakeven when this was greenlit.

....No???? Maybe if there was a lopsided international/domestic split in favor of international but studios make way more domestically than they do internationally. Disney'll be pleased as long as this passes 300 domestic.

[Flamengo81]

12 minutes ago, Goldbricker said:

Can you post the link here because 2014 and 2015 numbers were quite different than this?

They were indeed. From what I can recall researching about this theme, that year was a huge anomaly regarding the difference between Spider-Man and the others. Normally he is indeed number 1, but with Batman much closer than what was shown there. Maybe it was because Spidey had a movie in 2013 and Batman did not. Also Superman is sometimes downplayed, but he is by far the number 3 as far merch sales go.

[von Kenni]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

....No???? Maybe if there was a lopsided international/domestic split in favor of international but studios make way more domestically than they do internationally. Disney'll be pleased as long as this passes 300 domestic.

 

The bottom line is ultimately what counts. Check the quoted part from my post which reveals where the money comes from and what share and importance the dom and os have. I used 55% for dom and 40% for OS there. You can calculate it with different numbers.

[Mulder]

Just now, von Kenni said:

 

The bottom line is ultimately what counts. Check the quoted part from my post which reveals where the money comes from and what share and importance the dom and os have. I used 55% for dom and 40% for OS there. You can calculate it with different numbers.

No heads are going to roll for a movie that had a near-100 million OW and is looking to get to over 300 domestic. At this point it's basically concern trolling.

[Flamengo81]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

....No???? Maybe if there was a lopsided international/domestic split in favor of international but studios make way more domestically than they do internationally. Disney'll be pleased as long as this passes 300 domestic.

Is the difference that big considering that this is not making any China money, so almost all of it's international numbers are coming from countries that studios have a share of 40-45%?

[Flamengo81]

19 minutes ago, Goldbricker said:

Can you post the link here because 2014 and 2015 numbers were quite different than this?

Sure. Will post here later at night.

[WorkingonaName]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

No heads are going to roll for a movie that had a near-100 million OW and is looking to get to over 300 domestic. At this point it's basically concern trolling.

American box office doesn't pay the bills.

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

Is the difference that big considering that this is not making any China money, so almost all of it's international numbers are coming from countries that studios have a share of 40-45%?

Yes because plenty of movies with massive domestic leans or bad splits have been judged successes as studios, for example if international was the end-all, be-all we wouldn't have even gotten Across The Spider-Verse.

 

2 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

American box office doesn't pay the bills.

Yes it does.

[jedijake]

What specifically does TLM need to break even? I read that production was $250m and global marketing was $140 m. So wouldn't $400 million do the trick? Or is there another cost I am not factoring?

[Mulder]

Just now, jedijake said:

What specifically does TLM need to break even? I read that production was $250m and global marketing was $140 m. So wouldn't $400 million do the trick? Or is there another cost I am not factoring?

It's 2.5x the budget so if you factor in marketing too, that's 600 million.

[Kon]

5 minutes ago, jedijake said:

What specifically does TLM need to break even? I read that production was $250m and global marketing was $140 m. So wouldn't $400 million do the trick? Or is there another cost I am not factoring?

The studios doesn't get all the money from theaters (these seem to get 50% from USA, while less from other countries). So, $400 million wouldn't cover for the budget.

 

It seems the marketing cost isn't included in the included in the calculations for breakeven. There are other variables there.

Edited June 5, 2023 by Kon

[Mojoguy]

TLM is doing good DOM since it will be finish around Aladdin, but international numbers suck with it likely finishing 33% of Aladdin.

 

For the thousands of TLM articles written about wokism and racism in the US audience, overseas audience were the ones that didn't show up for a black Ariel.

[von Kenni]

6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

No heads are going to roll for a movie that had a near-100 million OW and is looking to get to over 300 domestic. At this point it's basically concern trolling.

If the film ends up losing money, then potentially yes. Especially when it wasn't a risky proposition like Dune or similar productions. TLM goes to a category that should have low risk and high rewards that then would cover more riskier projects like Dune (yes, different studios but I use it as an example here). Not fulfilling high expectations is okay as long as it makes money and if it makes just a little money, you might end up in that blame game range but if you somehow manage to lose money with this kind of project...

[The Dark Alfred]

54 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Dude that's like an entirely different discussion than "The Little Mermaid's having bad legs" when as of now, 6/5/2023, its legs are looking good.

 

Nobody said bad legs, bud. I said they "ain't pretty" which absolutely correct. It still going to carve out a healthy domestic tally, which is very much needed, because the international gross will be disappointing. I just don't get the enthusiasm for a film that is fighting to break even. It's clear that it is doing ok, not good at all.

[von Kenni]

8 minutes ago, jedijake said:

What specifically does TLM need to break even? I read that production was $250m and global marketing was $140 m. So wouldn't $400 million do the trick? Or is there another cost I am not factoring?

 

Copying my original message here:

 

If TLM gets over $300m DOM, it's okay for DOM. OS is where the potential flop comes into the picture. From the studio's point of view, this was greenlit with the expectation that it would make around a billion WW following the likes of Aladdin and Beauty and the Beast, especially given the huge budget of $250m (Aladdin $182m, BatB $160m).

 

If TLM gets to the $950-700m region WW, it'll be from success to okay for the studio. Under the $700m an internal blame game will start and under the $600m mark heads are going to roll (financial flop region).

 

Without knowing all the needed details, the breakeven point is around $600m +-$25m but we'll know much better when we see how the home entertainment sales go and how the actual budgets look from Pinewood Studios reporting in the UK in the upcoming months/half a year from now.

 

Scenario for the $600m WW breakeven point:

 

BO revenue: $300m DOM * 55% + $300m OS * 40% = $285m

TV & related rights/licensing fees: $150m

Home Entertainment revenue (DVD, BR, etc.): $75m

UK production repays: $50m

Other (e.g. merch): $15m

 

Total revenue: $575m

 

Production budget: $250m reported + 10% typical overruns = $275m

Marketing budget: $150m

Prints: $15m

Home entertainment marketing: $20m

Manufacturing (DVD, BR): $25m

Participation & residuals (crew, cast & key people income share): $35m

Studio overhead: $25m

Capital expenses & misc. (loans, capital interests, etc.): $30m (partly accounting method to discount the future tail revenue as present value)

 

Total costs: $575m

[Eric Furiosa]

Moderation

 

We are not partking in this Little Mermaid "is it a hit or not" concern trolling nonsense anymore. Regardless on how you feel about the movie's performance, it's just derailing the thread and nobody's going to listen to each other. So please stop this now.