Weekend Numbers | Weekend Estimates | 120.5M SPIDER-MAN: ATSV | 40.6M TLM | 12.3M THE BOOGEYMAN | 10.2M GOTG III

[The Dark Alfred]

Amazing for Spidey. Helluva a franchise jump. Not good for TLM, as expected legs aren't pretty. It won't sniff at ALADDIN domestically and just about to break even worldwide. Flopped internationally.

[von Kenni]

48 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

I thought it was 25% with Homecoming & FFH while 50% since 2019

 

Apparently not according to Variety, Deadline, and that NPR interview. Disney/Marvel tried to get 50% for NWH but ended up with 25% which sounds like a fair deal from an outside observer.

 

Here's some additional perspective from Marvel's former counsel and how he sees that it makes sense for Sony long-term too instead of Marvel buying the rights back with a huge sum:

 

https://movieweb.com/former-marvel-legal-counsel-offers-insight-sony-spider-man-deal/

[Flamengo81]

1 hour ago, WorkingonaName said:

Barbie has it in the bag domestically. MI stands a good shot of taking it WW though.

People will be surprised when this behaves as more as a Greta Gerwig typical movie but on steroids than as a huge blockbuster. The WOM will not be good mostly due to people going expecting something completely different of what they will get.

[Flamengo81]

53 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Sunflower

I wish it was the Beach Boys album topping the charts.

[von Kenni]

35 minutes ago, Willowra said:

People exaggerate when they talk about the merchandise revenue Disney gets from Spider-Man. Spider-Man licenced merchandise sales touch a billion dollars only when Sony releases a Spider-Man movie; without a Spider-Man movie, licenced sales fall below a billion dollars, and most importantly, Disney only gets 5–10% as a licence fee of total sales—$50-100M a year when sales are more than a billion. So Marvel's sale of movie rights to Sony turned out to be a very bad deal for Disney.

 

If you haven't read or listened yet the interview behind the first (NPR) link, I recommend checking it out. It gives a compelling argument why the original licensing of the movie rights made sense for the comic book company Marvel in the 90s. I.e. how the decision with the context at the time can be argued to be right even if in hindsight a decade later can be viewed as a mistake.

 

Regarding the merch licensing, I'm not sure if you're referring to something that I wrote, or just generally pointing out. I didn't emphasize the merch side and some pages ago on this thread (TLM discussion) made the opposite point like you that yes, people tend to exaggerate at least the direct financial relevance of merch licensing. The baseline licensing fee is around 5-15% and sometimes lower or higher. Depends on the merch type too.

 

I don't know Spidey merch numbers but a billion per movie sounds a lot. If that's true, then Disney actually makes a nice addition to the movie revenue. Especially if Disney still has a "Disney premium" in toy licensing that I read was even 25% in some cases. $100m-$200m per movie is still a nice addition if the 25% from NWH gets Disney/Marvel around $150m from other revenue sources....but maybe someone can find out what the actual merch sales numbers are. And double check if Marvel has all merch rights or limited.

 

...with a quick Google: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/superhero-earns-13-billion-a-748281/

 

[Krissykins]

38 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Amazing for Spidey. Helluva a franchise jump. Not good for TLM, as expected legs aren't pretty. It won't sniff at ALADDIN domestically and just about to break even worldwide. Flopped internationally.

Huh? This seems really premature. 
 

-15% second weekend drop here. 

[Spidey Freak]

Yeah, people don't realize how dumb Marvel was in the 90s that led them to a position where they were so bankrupt that they had to sell adaptation rights to studios with zero leverage. Buying out a comic book distributor like Marvel did in the 90s, which led to the death of other distributors and comic book stores, which in turn, karmatically ended up being the main contributing factor in Marvel's downfall, was possibly the precursor to this studio owned OTT fad, except much more stupider, greedier and the worst example of vulture capitalism.

[Spidey Freak]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Huh? This seems really premature. 
 

-15% second weekend drop here. 

 

Yeah, isn't it STILL ahead of Aladdin? Despite facing off against a MUCH stronger competitor in its second weekend. 

[Mulder]

49 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Amazing for Spidey. Helluva a franchise jump. Not good for TLM, as expected legs aren't pretty. It won't sniff at ALADDIN domestically and just about to break even worldwide. Flopped internationally.

Dude what are you talking about? Its drop was only about 4% worse than Aladdin despite going up against a 120+ million opener vs Aladdin going up against a 40+ million opener in its second weekend. It's still ahead of Aladdin at this current point in time.

[Kon]

7 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Dude what are you talking about? Its drop was only about 4% worse than Aladdin despite going up against a 120+ million opener vs Aladdin going up against a 40+ million opener in its second weekend. It's still ahead of Aladdin at this current point in time.

 

 

I think the drop of TLM is really good. The only reason why Disney wouldn't be happy about the movie is because they had a lot bigger ecpectatives.

 

However, I'm not sure why people keep mentioning Spiderverse as a strong competition to prove a point. Previously, people has said said Spiderverse wouldn't affect TLM second weekend so much because it has different audiences.

Edited June 5, 2023 by Kon

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Kon said:

 

 

I think the drop of TLM is really good. The only reason why Disney wouldn't be happy about the movie is because they had a lot bigger ecpectatives.

 

However, I'm not sure why people keep mentioning Spiderverse as a strong competition to prove a point. Previously, people has said said Spiderverse wouldn't affect TLM second weekend so much because it has different audiences.

Yeah not as direct competition, but a 120 million opener is a still a 120 million opener, it'll have SOME effect. Just not a huge one.

[The Dark Alfred]

You guys are way too optimistic if you think that TLM will come anywhere close to ALADDIN domestically. Will be minimum 20m way off, if not more in the end.

Edited June 5, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[JohnnyGossamer]

11 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

 

I think the drop of TLM is really good. The only reason why Disney wouldn't be happy about the movie is because they had a lot bigger ecpectatives.

 

However, I'm not sure why people keep mentioning Spiderverse as a strong competition to prove a point. Previously, people has said said Spiderverse wouldn't affect TLM second weekend so much because it has different audiences.

Well, it also lost pretty much all it's PLF screens too so there's that which come along with AtSV being a mega opener.

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

You guys are way too optimistic if you think that TLM will come anywhere close to ALADDIN domestically. Will be minimum 20m way off, if not more in the end.

Dude that's like an entirely different discussion than "The Little Mermaid's having bad legs" when as of now, 6/5/2023, its legs are looking good.

[Bob Train]

Aladdin late legs rivaled Top Gun. From the 4th to 8th weekend Aladdin dropped an average of 24% versus 23% for Top Gun. No way for TLM to compete with that even with excellent holds. It's an apt comparison because all 3 (TLM, TGM, Aladdin) were Memorial day releases.

 

Expecting TLM to match Aladdin domestic is setting expectation too high. It has been playing like Rise of Gru lately (losing PLFs in second week, roughly 57% drop in second weekend, frontloaded opening weekend, summer weekdays, Holiday as the first Monday, etc.) So I think legs should rival Rise of Gru so I think roughly 3.2-3.4x legs for a 300-320m total.

 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Bob Train

[Mulder]

Just now, Bob Train said:

Aladdin late legs rivaled Top Gun. From the 4th to 8th weekend Aladdin dropped an average of 24% versus 23% for Top Gun. No way for TLM to compete with that even with excellent holds. It's an apt comparison because all 3 (TLM, TGM, Aladdin) were Memorial day releases.

 

Expecting TLM to match Aladdin domestic is nonsense. It has been playing like Rise of Gru lately (losing PLFs in second week, roughly 57% drop in second weekend, frontloaded opening weekend, summer weekdays, Holiday as the first Monday, etc.) So I think legs should rival Rise of Gru so I think roughly 3.2-3.4x legs for a 300-320m total.

 

 

Thank you for using your crystal ball and looking into the future.

[jedijake]

TLM doesn't have to match Aladdin's domestic in order to qualify for "good legs". Aladdin's legs were exceptional.

 

TLM's predictions have been a yo-yo. Pre-release, the previews were looking golden. Then they were only ok. Then the total Friday looked great. But then Saturday was meh. The mid week numbers were looking like amazing legs. Then this past weekend was seen by some as being only "ok". Then, when taking into consideration that ATSV made $120 m, the weekend looked good. Up, down, round, and round.

 

Btw @Bob TrainRise of Gru is looking like a pretty great comparison!

 

However, something that seems to be affecting any Disney release is the now-ingrained mindset that it will be out on D+ in 3 months. With movies not attached to a studio that has a streaming service, the home availability is less certain and unknown.

Edited June 5, 2023 by jedijake

[WorkingonaName]

TLM aint breaking even 

[ogkalu]

https://www.omelete.com.br/bilheteria-brasil/1-junho-2023

TLM dropped 18% in brazil this weekend. Very close to Spider-Verse

[Willowra]

Disney should be very pleased with TLM's box office performance. 2017 was the last time a female-led live-action Hollywood movie grossed $500M+ that wasn't a Marvel, Star Wars, or DC movie.