Weekend Numbers | Weekend Estimates | 120.5M SPIDER-MAN: ATSV | 40.6M TLM | 12.3M THE BOOGEYMAN | 10.2M GOTG III

[Issac Newton]

I think we should believe on Tom Cruise Supremacy! $500M even $600M+ is possible for MI7

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

this is so rushed...

 

Can't believe Nolan pick this studio to work with. 

[Eric the IF]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

I think we should believe on Tom Cruise Supremacy! $500M even $600M+ is possible for MI7

Man…do you guys want to be disappointed?

[Torontofan]

10 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So no 400DOM this summer?

only see MI doing it really.  

[keysersoze123]

Spiderverse will have amazing weekdays for sure. I just dont see the sub 3.0 as possibility even with competition. 

[Lion Roar]

I have a hard time seeing MI7 increase more than 50% from MI6. Would be very surprised if it did more than $350m dom. 

[Killimano3]

Mission impossible could see a bit of a bump from people who got hype over Tom Cruise after seeing Top Gun but way too many people are expecting insane numbers from it.

 

Top Gun did well because it was the sequel to an old nostalgic film for a lot of people. Mission impossible has been putting out films for decades without stopping, people aren't nostalgic for them in the same way.

[M37]

On 6/4/2023 at 11:19 AM, M37 said:

As for the broader point, my working comp for legs has always been Minions 2, which finished at ~$370M off a (July 4 inflated) first week of $165M (2.24x).  ATSV probably hits $170M+ for first week, so $400M is in play if it legs out a little better 

 

EDIT: GOTG3 is probably going to finish above 2.3x OWeek, so that comp works too 

At the risk of repeating myself, $400M dom is possible

 

Doubt ATSV gets a similar second weekend of -50% like GOTG3 while losing PLF, so the Minions path with better holds in weeks 3-10 is the more likely scenario to get there 

[WorkingonaName]

Barbie has it in the bag domestically. MI stands a good shot of taking it WW though.

[von Kenni]

Adding some background for the Sony - Marvel/Disney deals on Spidey (ref earlier conversations here):

 

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1076531156 (interesting recap of the history and makes Marvel look much better than on paper...especially how they lured themselves back into the spider-verse)

 

DEAL 1: Starting in 1999 the deal was that Sony pays $10m per movie to Marvel, 5% of revenues, and they split the toy merch. Sony needs to release a new Spider-Man movie every 5 years and 9 months or they lose the license.

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/sony-marvel-tom-holland-spider-man-1203351489/

 

DEAL 2: Around the mid-2010s Marvel made a "bad deal" that kept the original deal but the 5% is first dollar gross and they get all toy merch. Why "bad"? Marvel would produce the movies together starting with Homecoming without any sizable new financial upside. However, this way they got Spidey to appear in the Marvel movies and some Marvel appearances in the Spidey movies.

 

@PlatnumRoyce found extra insight into the deals (check the link below):

 

• Disney pays Sony 280MM plus 3.5% of each film's BO gross (with a limit of 35MM per film and 130MM every 10 years) to buy them out of merchandising participation - https://www.resetera.com/threads/marvel-sony-spiderman-contracts.13589/

 

 

DEAL 3: In 2019 after some hardball negotiations, Marvel got 25% stake in the profits and finances at least 25% of the production and keeps all the merch revenue. NWH was with this split. At this point, Sony couldn't "afford" to go solo without the connection to MCU, a trap set by Marvel's "bad deal".

 

Everybody wins.

 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by von Kenni
added insight to the deals

[Issac Newton]

9 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

Man…do you guys want to be disappointed?

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Bob Train]

Should cross ITSV by next week

[Legion Again]

26 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

Man…do you guys want to be disappointed?

I dunno  600+ WW seems quite reasonable considering fallout 🤓

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Liiviig 1998]

2 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

I dunno  600+ WW seems quite reasonable considering fallout 🤓

Fallout is my  no 1 action movie of all time. MI franchise has had a reverse effect in regard to franchises where  instead of subsequent movies getting worse they are getting better.

 

600 WW would be ridiculous but it's still more plausible than 500-600m Dom.

 

[M37]

So official beats GOTG3 and nudges up over $120M. A solid result in line with tracking, just didn’t fully break out. Can still pick up more viewers in later weeks though, especially after Flash opening when release calendar lightens up a bit 

[charlie Jatinder]

28 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Adding some background for the Sony - Marvel/Disney deals on Spidey (ref earlier conversations here):

 

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1076531156 (interesting recap of the history and makes Marvel look much better than on paper...especially how they lured themselves back into the spider-verse)

 

DEAL 1: Starting in 1999 the deal was that Sony pays $10m per movie to Marvel, 5% of revenues, and they split the toy merch. Sony needs to release a new Spider-Man movie every 5 years and 9 months or they lose the license.

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/sony-marvel-tom-holland-spider-man-1203351489/

 

DEAL 2: Around the mid-2010s Marvel made a "bad deal" that kept the original deal but the 5% is first dollar gross and they get all toy merch. Why "bad"? Marvel would produce the movies together starting with Homecoming without any sizable new financial upside. However, this way they got Spidey to appear in the Marvel movies and some Marvel appearances in the Spidey movies.

 

DEAL 3: In 2019 after some hardball negotiations, Marvel got 25% stake in the profits and finances at least 25% of the production and keeps all the merch revenue. NWH was with this split. At this point, Sony couldn't "afford" to go solo without the connection to MCU, a trap set by Marvel's "bad deal".

 

Everybody wins.

 

I thought it was 25% with Homecoming & FFH while 50% since 2019

[Grebacio]

The Across The Spiderverse album has been doing well on Spotify. 12 out of 13 songs are in the Top 250 most streamed songs in the USA. Sunflower from Into The Spiderverse is also in the Top

[Willowra]

45 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Adding some background for the Sony - Marvel/Disney deals on Spidey (ref earlier conversations here):

 

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1076531156 (interesting recap of the history and makes Marvel look much better than on paper...especially how they lured themselves back into the spider-verse)

 

DEAL 1: Starting in 1999 the deal was that Sony pays $10m per movie to Marvel, 5% of revenues, and they split the toy merch. Sony needs to release a new Spider-Man movie every 5 years and 9 months or they lose the license.

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/sony-marvel-tom-holland-spider-man-1203351489/

 

DEAL 2: Around the mid-2010s Marvel made a "bad deal" that kept the original deal but the 5% is first dollar gross and they get all toy merch. Why "bad"? Marvel would produce the movies together starting with Homecoming without any sizable new financial upside. However, this way they got Spidey to appear in the Marvel movies and some Marvel appearances in the Spidey movies.

 

DEAL 3: In 2019 after some hardball negotiations, Marvel got 25% stake in the profits and finances at least 25% of the production and keeps all the merch revenue. NWH was with this split. At this point, Sony couldn't "afford" to go solo without the connection to MCU, a trap set by Marvel's "bad deal".

 

Everybody wins.

 

People exaggerate when they talk about the merchandise revenue Disney gets from Spider-Man. Spider-Man licenced merchandise sales touch a billion dollars only when Sony releases a Spider-Man movie; without a Spider-Man movie, licenced sales fall below a billion dollars, and most importantly, Disney only gets 5–10% as a licence fee of total sales—$50-100M a year when sales are more than a billion. So Marvel's sale of movie rights to Sony turned out to be a very bad deal for Disney.