Weekend Numbers | Weekend Estimates | 120.5M SPIDER-MAN: ATSV | 40.6M TLM | 12.3M THE BOOGEYMAN | 10.2M GOTG III

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

Moderation

 

We are not partking in this Little Mermaid "is it a hit or not" concern trolling nonsense anymore. Regardless on how you feel about the movie's performance, it's just derailing the thread and nobody's going to listen to each other. So please stop this now.

 

I'm listening 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[cooldude97]

To shift the subject, did you know Transformers age of extinction had an A cinemascore?

[Flamengo81]

19 minutes ago, Mulder said:

for example if international was the end-all, be-all we wouldn't have even gotten Across The Spider-Verse.

I don't think international is the end-all, be all and domestic certainly is more important for box office, but I am not convinced that there is such a big difference and studios definitely give a lot of value to international values, especially since this demonstrates global power which is a indicative of other possible profitabilities like merchandise.

[Eric Furiosa]

 

[von Kenni]

5 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

Moderation

 

We are not partking in this Little Mermaid "is it a hit or not" concern trolling nonsense anymore. Regardless on how you feel about the movie's performance, it's just derailing the thread and nobody's going to listen to each other. So please stop this now.

 

I had to google what even "concern trolling" means:

 

the action or practice of disingenuously expressing concern about an issue in order to undermine or derail genuine discussion.

 

Just to clarify, are you just wanting to end all conversations about TLM box office prospects or are you saying that if you present views or analysis saying that TLM might be a financial flop for the studio, it all is concern trolling?

 

I got the sense of the latter from the way you wrote it but I hope I'm misunderstanding it.

 

I don't have a vested interest in TLM. I haven't seen it and haven't seen the original one either, but I'm interested in analysing its numbers and what it means for the studio, the same way as AtSV here. I thought that that's what this forum and especially threads regarding the numbers are about. Personally, that's what is the most important part of this whole forum, understanding the finances and business dynamics of the industry and on the side of course enjoying some movie trivia conversations

 

All that said, I can see that the conversation seems to derail in regards to TLM easily here and can end up my part in it even if I'm sad that we can't analyze it without ending up sideways as a group but there's a difference if said that let's end it collectively than expressing it in a way that labels ambiguously people "concern trolling" which implies also one-sided blame for derailing the conversation.

[PlatnumRoyce]

2 hours ago, von Kenni said:

I don't know Spidey merch numbers but a billion per movie sounds a lot. If that's true, then Disney actually makes a nice addition to the movie revenue. Especially if Disney still has a "Disney premium" in toy licensing that I read was even 25% in some cases. $100m-$200m per movie is still a nice addition if the 25% from NWH gets Disney/Marvel around $150m from other revenue sources....but maybe someone can find out what the actual merch sales numbers are. And double check if Marvel has all merch rights or limited.

 

...with a quick Google: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/superhero-earns-13-billion-a-748281/

 

 

 

Alternatively, doesn't the old marvel-sony agreement pretty explicitly tells you how much each side valued SM merch. 

 

• Disney pays Sony 280MM plus 3.5% of each film's BO gross (with a limit of 35MM per film and 130MM every 10 years) to buy them out of merchandising participation - https://www.resetera.com/threads/marvel-sony-spiderman-contracts.13589/

so ~120M per film is a high side number for their Spider-Man cut but apparently another study by sony suggested more in the 50-100M range (but I guess that can be ~= 200M if we'd been dealing with full merch rights?).  

edit: see moderator note now: I can't imagine this qualifies as concern trolling (for one thing I'm really interested in getting a better sense of merch rights 101) but am I right to interpret this as you saying this should be dropped?
 

Edited June 5, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[von Kenni]

24 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

 

Alternatively, doesn't the old marvel-sony agreement pretty explicitly tells you how much each side valued SM merch. 

 

• Disney pays Sony 280MM plus 3.5% of each film's BO gross (with a limit of 35MM per film and 130MM every 10 years) to buy them out of merchandising participation - https://www.resetera.com/threads/marvel-sony-spiderman-contracts.13589/

so ~120M per film is a high side number for their Spider-Man cut but apparently another study by sony suggested more in the 50-100M range.  
 

 

This is cool insight. Thanks!

 

So basically if the movie makes $1B they pay that $35m which implies that they expect to make a lot more money themselves and that $280m one-time off payment gives an extra hint. Also waiting to see those up-to-date statistics on Spidey merch sales but looks like we're talking around $1B per year (less when no movies and more when movies). 10% of that would be $100m as mentioned here earlier. $100m -$35m = $65m annually when a movie comes out and all $100m when not ~ 4-5 years to pay off the initial $280m.

 

That source link is excellent. It gives additional insight into their deal. They also capped the 3.5% to 750m WW.

Edited June 5, 2023 by von Kenni
Last sentence. Check the link! :)

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

....No???? Maybe if there was a lopsided international/domestic split in favor of international but studios make way more domestically than they do internationally. Disney'll be pleased as long as this passes 300 domestic.

While studios do get more money from domestic, what people seem to ignore is that studios spend a lot more money marketing domestically than anywhere else. In China marketing is pretty nonexistent. Whereas in the USA it's very expensive, so it kind of cancels out.

[JohnnyGossamer]

28 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

While studios do get more money from domestic, what people seem to ignore is that studios spend a lot more money marketing domestically than anywhere else. In China marketing is pretty nonexistent. Whereas in the USA it's very expensive, so it kind of cancels out.

More money being spent to market domestically doesn't change the fact that studios get a much higher share of the domestic earnings than they do OS and especially China in specific. If hypothetically a movie made 600M DOM and 0M OS, it would make more than if a movie made 200M DOM, 200M OS, 200M China.

[1Robert1]

lion king, and beauty and the best didnt made 2,9x of their openings, TLM will definetely make more than 275 mln, so i dont know how people can think it will have bad legs.

[von Kenni]

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Actuals for ATSV: 

Jun 1, 2023	P	$17,350,000		3,562	$4,871	$17,350,000
Jun 2, 2023	1	$51,808,109		4,313	$12,012	$51,808,109	1
Jun 3, 2023	1	$37,566,658	-27%	4,313	$8,710	$89,374,767	2
Jun 4, 2023	1	$31,288,822	-17%	4,313	$7,255	$120,663,589	3

Edited June 5, 2023 by IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son

[Eric Furiosa]

57 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

I had to google what even "concern trolling" means:

 

the action or practice of disingenuously expressing concern about an issue in order to undermine or derail genuine discussion.

 

Just to clarify, are you just wanting to end all conversations about TLM box office prospects or are you saying that if you present views or analysis saying that TLM might be a financial flop for the studio, it all is concern trolling?

 

I got the sense of the latter from the way you wrote it but I hope I'm misunderstanding it.

 

I don't have a vested interest in TLM. I haven't seen it and haven't seen the original one either, but I'm interested in analysing its numbers and what it means for the studio, the same way as AtSV here. I thought that that's what this forum and especially threads regarding the numbers are about. Personally, that's what is the most important part of this whole forum, understanding the finances and business dynamics of the industry and on the side of course enjoying some movie trivia conversations

 

All that said, I can see that the conversation seems to derail in regards to TLM easily here and can end up my part in it even if I'm sad that we can't analyze it without ending up sideways as a group but there's a difference if said that let's end it collectively than expressing it in a way that labels ambiguously people "concern trolling" which implies also one-sided blame for derailing the conversation.

It seems like concern trolling because a lot of the debates reads to me as people trying to make Little Mermaid's performance worse than it actually is. Trying to say that its legs actually aren't good because X, Y, and Z and the like and that because it didn't hit certain expectations, it's automatically a failure. When in actuality, the film is doing fine and will be fine. It all screams trying to look for something that isn't there, especially when we've never done this with any other movie until right now, for some reason. Very peculiar.

 

And sure, maybe me stating this all as concern trolling is a little harsh. But I have to be harsh as a mod. Otherwise, the message won't be clear.

[Bob Train]

6 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

It seems like concern trolling because a lot of the debates reads to me as people trying to make Little Mermaid's performance worse than it actually is. Trying to say that its legs actually aren't good because X, Y, and Z and the like and that because it didn't hit certain expectations, it's automatically a failure. When in actuality, the film is doing fine and will be fine. It all screams trying to look for something that isn't there, especially when we've never done this with any other movie until right now, for some reason. Very peculiar.

 

And sure, maybe me stating this all as concern trolling is a little harsh. But I have to be harsh as a mod. Otherwise, the message won't be clear.

The film is doing poorly not fine.  600m gross on 250m production budget and 140m marketing is not good. Anyone would have been laughed at for suggesting that it would make 600m before it released. Disney doesn't make these films for charity, they make them to print cash, and this one is not doing that at all. I liked the film and thought it would be a huge hit but it's obvious that it's missing the mark.

[Mulder]

Just now, Bob Train said:

The film is doing poorly not fine.  600m gross on 250m production budget and 140m marketing is not good. Anyone would have been laughed at for suggesting that it would make 600m before it released. Disney doesn't make these films for charity, they make them to print cash, and this one is not doing that at all. I liked the film and thought it would be a huge hit but it's obvious that it's missing the mark.

You literally said last weekend it was dropping 65%.

[Eric Furiosa]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

The film is doing poorly not fine.  600m gross on 250m production budget and 140m marketing is not good. Anyone would have been laughed at for suggesting that it would make 600m before it released. Disney doesn't make these films for charity, they make them to print cash, and this one is not doing that at all. I liked the film and thought it would be a huge hit but it's obvious that it's missing the mark.

Either way, I don't want to deal with 5+ pages of arguments and fighting over this movie, especially after the endless fights last weekend, so I think it's best to end it here. I'm sure you're disappointed with this and I apologize for that, but it's for the good of the forum.

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 hour ago, von Kenni said:

 

This is cool insight. Thanks!

 

So basically if the movie makes $1B they pay that $35m which implies that they expect to make a lot more money themselves and that $280m one-time off payment gives an extra hint. Also waiting to see those up-to-date statistics on Spidey merch sales but looks like we're talking around $1B per year (less when no movies and more when movies). 10% of that would be $100m as mentioned here earlier. $100m -$35m = $65m annually when a movie comes out and all $100m when not ~ 4-5 years to pay off the initial $280m.

 

That source link is excellent. It gives additional insight into their deal. They also capped the 3.5% to 750m WW.

On this topic, the 50M-100M I mentioned is from memory but it comes from some leaked work product for the 2014 deal. if you look at wikileak's Sony page on archive dot org you can find a third party analyst's estimates if you search the URL for "spider-Man" (would link but I'm not sure what forums rules/norms would be about that). It gives much harder estimates and splits up "classic" and "film related" merch (which if you follow the sub link are treated differently in actual contract). 

[druv10]

2	(1)	The Little Mermaid	Walt Disney	$41,385,711	-57%	4,320	n/c	$9,580	$186,992,778	2
3	N	The Boogeyman	20th Century…	$12,356,486		3,205		$3,855	$12,356,486	1
4	(3)	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3	Walt Disney	$10,677,998	-49%	3,580	-360	$2,983	$323,189,452	5

 

 

Great Sunday hold of 18% drop for TLM and 25% for GOTG3. 

 

Weekend drop of 56.7% for TLM instead 58% with estimates and 48.7% for GOTG3 instead of 51%.

Edited June 5, 2023 by druv10