Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

[CrashBandicoot81]

Can we making joking comparisions of the Flash to fast things like Pikachu, Sonic the hedgehog, and that Ryan Reynolds snail movie?

Edited June 18, 2023 by CrashBandicoot81

[PlatnumRoyce]

6 minutes ago, cookie said:

Nope coasts on Jordan Peele's name. Give that movie to anyone else and it may have done half its gross.

Sure, but if you made John Bernthol the highest star power actor in FvF, it would have done a lot worse too. I agree Nope wasn't a super impressive box office run but it at least should be flagged. Elvis making $150M falls below some comps (inflation adjusted) but it's also pretty much in the same vein as films cited above. The audience clearly wasn't in theaters for movies like this in 2021 but moviegoing health is clearly continuing to improve in fits and starts. 

 

The big problem is that we're dealing with a very small "n." I mean, Soul nearly outgrossed Onward worldwide despite being released in much worse circumstances including no US release at all. Nothing changes but these numbers presumably look a lot rosier if Soul either gets the Onward or even the Raya date. 

[WorkingonaName]

Imo. 

 

1. Mario

2. Barbie

3. Spider-verse

4. Oppenheimer 

5. Guardians 

6. Fnaf

7. Dune

8. Wonka

9. John Wick

10. M:I

 

Order might be scuffed

[Incarnadine]

13 minutes ago, Reddroast said:

I agree ALL of this especially Marketing. Does anyone remember when studios used to out a poster and a teaser trailer a year in advance for their events? I do. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

,

Edited June 18, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[Reddroast]

Just now, WorkingonaName said:

Imo. 

 

1. Mario

2. Barbie

3. Spider-verse

4. Oppenheimer 

5. Guardians 

6. Fnaf

7. Dune

8. Wonka

9. John Wick

10. M:I

 

Order might be scuffed

Fnaf is a day-and-date streaming release with on peacock. As much as I want it to it is not making the top 10

[WorkingonaName]

2 minutes ago, Reddroast said:

Fnaf is a day-and-date streaming release with on peacock. As much as I want it to it is not making the top 10

Im counting on no-one actually using peacock. 

[CrashBandicoot81]

Unless they add The King of FNAF to the FNAF movie it'll be missing 87M at the box office. It'll be missing that Authentic FNAF experience of a man overreacting to a jumpscare.

Edited June 18, 2023 by CrashBandicoot81

[Bob Train]

No one has Peacock, it's irrelevant. Doesn't compare to D+ Max or Netflix
 

[FunkMiller]

What’s with all this doom and gloom?

 

It’s a good thing these mediocre to poor movies are being rejected by audiences. It’s actually great to see it. If studios realise they can’t just put out crap, then the standard of movies we do get will be higher.

 

The movie going experience isn’t dying… but hopefully the days of studios being able to coast most certainly is.

[21C]

Unironically I think The Flash flopping while Spider-Verse and GoTG are doing great is the best thing that could be happening to superhero movies at the moment.

[PenguinHyphy]

3 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Superman has not had a great or even really good film since the 80s so...

 

Some people consider Man of Steel to be a masterpiece 

[DC Rich]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

For a summer family film tentpole? When did those ever miss 3x pre covid? 

 

How many of those family film tentpoles opened to 191m?  TLK is the 9th biggest opening weekend of all time.  Out of the top 20 OW, only 5 have had a multiplier over 3.  Two of those were during the Christmas Holidays and one was cultural phenomenon Black Panther.  Getting to 3X off an opening above 160m isn't that easy.  

[Bobzaruni]

43 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

What if Spider-verse 2 hits 700m?

Should be 350M-450M profit if its 600-700M assuming 100M x 2.5 = 250M

[grey ghost]

Re: Elio

 

Aren't animated space movies, ya know...cursed? 

[MightyDargon]

As dumb as most of this thread is at least some of us managed to shut up the "Spiderverse disappointment" talk, as insane as it was.

[dudalb]

17 minutes ago, FunkMiller said:

What’s with all this doom and gloom?

 

It’s a good thing these mediocre to poor movies are being rejected by audiences. It’s actually great to see it. If studios realise they can’t just put out crap, then the standard of movies we do get will be higher.

 

The movie going experience isn’t dying… but hopefully the days of studios being able to coast most certainly is.

When TV came out in the late 1940;sk movie theaters lost 40% of their audience. If the theaters could survive that they will survive the loss to streaming.

But I agree that I don't

 get this mindless rooting for every big film that comes along. The studios release a film that for whatever reason people don't want to see, they deserve what they get and they will make changes. That is the way the market works.

[cahramel]

How much do TLM needs to break even? I've seen a lot of numbers from 500M to 750M these past weeks but I'd guess at least 600M, right? 

[PenguinHyphy]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I could care less about Flash or Elemental flopping. But that same picky, "I'll wait to see it at home" mentality means a movie like Good Will Hunting or Moneyball or True Grit or Michael Clayton never make 20m again, which means they stop getting released in theaters, which means eventually they stop making them of real quality. And those are the movies I care about.

 

People keep saying over and over it's because Flash and Elemental are unappealing product - but look at those movies I just listed, and tell me with a straight face they'd make any money nowadays. You can't. And they're definitely fucking appealing product.

 

Those are projects are more so hurt by people not caring about the Oscars anymore than they are because of a change in consumer habits. All of those projects got boosts from nominations and wins at awards ceremonies. None of them set the box office ablaze from the jump. Air and The Woman King both grossed a higher total than Michael Clayton and have pretty comparable grosses to Moneyball, so streaming is not the biggest problem affecting those problems. By all accounts, the Oscar projects are not performing great on streaming either      

[Justin4125]

8 minutes ago, cahramel said:

How much do TLM needs to break even? I've seen a lot of numbers from 500M to 750M these past weeks but I'd guess at least 600M, right? 

 

As someone who had been invested in DIS for years (thankfully not recently), I suggest that standard calculations don't work too well. Not only does DIS have a scary ability to recoup through home ent and all sorts of ancillaries, streaming has made the whole calculation wonky as can be. I don't think anyone knows for sure, but if it has any value on D+ (I know some people waiting for streaming and others that will see it a hundred times on D+, purely anecdotal, I'm just in the "families" demo), Disney will scrape to break even on TLM (and slightly beyond as the years wane). I'd worry more about movies like Fast X that are heavy on partnered international markets and have weak ancillaries (at least relative to DIS family fare)