Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

[Eric the IF]

 

Okay, let's get through this as quick as we can. The Flash and its box office potential has been a very contested and controversial topic. It was supposed to be one of the greatest comic book movies ever! It was supposed to be this mega giant hit because of all the cameos! Nobody cares about Michael Keaton as Batman! Ezra Miller is too toxic!

 

Everybody and their cat have their knives out against somebody here. So it's important first and foremost to lead into some ground rules and reaffirmations.

 

1. Yes, you can be positive or negative on the film's commercial prospects. So long as you don't insult others, condescend to those with a different opinion, etc. If you aren't being respectful to your fellow BOT members, you will see warning points and a possible threadban. No exceptions.

 

2. To DC fans, please don't take people disliking the film as a personal attack. Critics aren't purposely trying to be negative on the movie, many BOT users don't have an agenda when they say the movie looks bad. Just try to enjoy the ride and have a good time.

 

3. To DC haters, this isn't going to be an epic bomb or failure. It doesn't cost 200M, Michael Keaton isn't a nobody, people like his Batman, and we're going to get tons of DC movies for years and years to come. There's no need to be doom and gloom and start unnecessary trolling.

 

4. Fanboy Wars is not allowed unless absolutely necessary (comparing one film's box office to another as an example). We don't need some "Marvel rocks, DC sucks" stuff at any time, and we especially don't need it here. So if you want to do some petty fanboy nonsense, go somewhere else. As I always like to say, if you don't like how this forum's run, there's plenty of other areas to talk about Marvel movies, DC movies, and so on.

 

5. No spoilers, as per usual. Any spoilers revealed publicly here will result in a threadban. No exceptions.

 

We will have this thread locked until the first preview numbers come in. Thank you.

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, Seto Kaiba said:

EXCLUSIVE: Warner Bros./DC’s The Flash per box office sources is playing like a deeper universe superhero movie with around $9M in Thursday night previews which began at 3PM. While the pic’s critical score on Rotten Tomatoes has fallen to 67% fresh from 71% fresh, audiences are enjoying it more at 88%. That’s a good sign.

 

https://deadline.com/2023/06/box-office-the-flash-elemental-ezra-miller-1235418741/

 

[excel1]

[excel1]

Just now, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

 

too low, it will be much more in reality

[Grebacio]

So it's almost a lock Elemental and Flash do 100M combined?

[21C]

First of all I'd like to clarify it did cost 200 million dollars: Box Office: The Flash Targets $70 Million, Elemental Aims for $35 - Variety

But a debut of $70 million or below is less than heroic for a comic book epic that cost more than $200 million and has been heralded (if mostly by the executives who made the film) as “one of the greatest superhero movies ever made.” 

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, excel1 said:

 

too low, it will be much more in reality

 

10.5 max but probably 9.7-10.2

[Ledmonkey96]

Just now, Grebacio said:

So it's almost a lock Elemental and Flash do 100M combined?

If we assume the estimates from deadline are true over BoTs on.... then i don't think so? x11 multi for Elemenetal gets it to 38.5 but x6.5 for flash only gets it 58.5, kinda just pulled those multis out my ass but they'd only get it to around 95mil

[Johnny Tran]

I don't know about "much more"..   my guess would be $9.75 million tops.  Maybe they say $10M to sound better.  I think it's looking to be low $60s for the weekend.  Is that a failure? I wouldn't say it's a complete fail because again they are really just trying to make back most or all of what was spent here,  there's nothing about the future of DC coming out of this run or lack of run. 

 

I'll be interested to see more of what audiences think in the coming 2 days. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

6 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

Flash opens below Black Adam and i want to see Rock's twitter.

[filmlover]

On the bright side, it should avoid coming below Transformers for the weekend due to Father's Day on Sunday. And that's pretty much it, I guess. 

[LegionWrex]

This weekend is about to be absolutely wild across the board, I can already tell. I'm strapping in for the long haul.

[Relevation]

That is a really healthy preview number for Elemental given what it was looking like from trackers. I’m feeling a 13-14x IM and $45-50M for the weekend.

[Mulder]

24 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

Exactly as the trackers were suggesting. Maybe it'll go up to 10m but we'll see. Really curious what the IM'll be.

[LegionWrex]

1 minute ago, Relevation said:

That is a really healthy preview number for Elemental given what it was looking like from trackers. I’m feeling a 13-14x IM and $45-50M for the weekend.

 

Elemental opening that high compared to projections would be a win in my book considering how dire it was looking prior to this. I'll still believe when I see it BUT it's definitely a possibility now which is pretty crazy.

[filmlover]

Yeah, $3.5M would be relatively decent for Elemental, especially since it's unlikely to be frontloaded. $35-40M start is still on the table.

[John Marston]

https://twitter.com/meJat32/status/1669555017064280064

[Mulder]

Just now, John Marston said:

https://twitter.com/meJat32/status/1669555017064280064

Under 60 would be a genuine disaster for this, but it's possible. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

imagine how fun a thread like this one could have been in 2016-2017

[Legion Again]

31 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

So it's almost a lock Elemental and Flash do 100M combined?

No. Very unlikely actually