Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[tonytr87]

3 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

I've had my bad share of experiences going to the theater but it's not nearly as common as some people would have you believe.

 

I've also heard things about moviegoing culture in other countries (CJohn is from Portugal it seems), where it's just not the norm to respect the "sanctity" of the experience. For example, in Mexico it's seen as much more of an interactive, less serious endeavor.

[Deep Wang]

28 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

Can somebody explain to me why movies with sub-20 mil openings and not-at-all-bad WOM are experiencing 50% drops in their second weekend? Just doesn't make sense that stuff like Asteroid City & No Hard Feelings would be frontloaded at all. 

 

I'm sure part of it is previews starting at 3pm during the summer.

[21C]

20 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

And that’s different than CinemaScore and PostTrak how, exactly? The way I see it, the fact that RT Verified Audience shows a bigger sample - while still very much flawed like the other options to gauge that - at very least gives it a veneer of legitimacy. It’s not perfect, in fact I’m a big believer that it’s a botched system, the lot of them. I’m just saying that RT Verified Audience score seems more reliable due its bigger sample size.

PostTrak and CinemaScore operate on polling a large number random people directly out of the theater across different states. That's how it's different and that's why it's significantly more reflective of the actual general audience opinion; CinemaScore and PostTrak isn't limited to the very specific demographic of RT users that'd go out of their way to post a verified review. It's as pure of a sample as you could get.

Edited July 3, 2023 by 21C

[ringedmortality]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I really hope DIS see how Elemental is behaving and choose a better date for Elio, that looks very promising and could thrive without competition now that Pixar finally have a good run in theaters after years. 

 

Idk the plot seems very similar to Mars Needs Mom

[AniNate]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Indeed. Is very easy to just see the raw numbers and trash it but as people who cares about detailed box office runs, we should know better about context before making statements about the run of a movie not being special. 
 

The numbers themselves sure aren’t special, but the run in this context is definitely worthy of celebration. 
 

Since Coco in 2017. Things has been really dire since that, sadly.

 

I really hope DIS see how Elemental is behaving and choose a better date for Elio, that looks very promising and could thrive without competition now that Pixar finally have a good run in theaters after years. 

 

I think Elio will probably be fine where it is assuming BSV is delayed. ASV and Elemental are coexisting ok so I don't see why Elio and Panda can't

Edited July 3, 2023 by AniNate

[ZattMurdock]

7 minutes ago, 21C said:

PostTrak and CinemaScore operate on polling a large number random people directly out of the theater across different states. That's how it's different and that's why it's significantly more reflective of the actual general audience opinion; CinemaScore and PostTrak isn't limited to the very specific demographic of RT users that'd go out of their way to post a verified review. 

RT verified audience covers not just North America afaik. There are people on RT that are movie buffs enthusiasts. As a Brazilian, the very concept of CS and PT is so weird to me. Do I really need to know what middle America thinks of idk Eternal Sunshine of Spotless Mind (B-)? Drive (C-)? As a box office enthusiast sure but are you seriously advocating that those are better metrics for a film quality wise? Because I find that idea baffling.

Edited July 3, 2023 by ZattMurdock

[AniNate]

3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Idk the plot seems very similar to Mars Needs Mom

 

And Elemental was a Zootopia/Romeo and Juliet ripoff or something.

 

You can't really assume anything until you see it but I think if people are enjoying Elemental they'll be more willing to give Elio a chance at the outset

[ringedmortality]

Just now, AniNate said:

And Elemental was a Zootopia/Romeo and Juliet ripoff or something.

 

Yeah but those other things are good!

[AniNate]

Elio isn't using creepy Zemeckis mocap so that's already a point in its favor.

 

I'm pretty sure though based on the synopsis its similarities will end at "kid gets abducted by aliens". Also Adrian Molina has not yet indicated he's undeserving of the benefit of the doubt.

[M37]

46 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

Can somebody explain to me why movies with sub-20 mil openings and not-at-all-bad WOM are experiencing 50% drops in their second weekend? Just doesn't make sense that stuff like Asteroid City & No Hard Feelings would be frontloaded at all. 

Both had an (albeit smaller) fan base for Wes Anderson and JLaw respectively, which boosted the OW. But the bigger issue is that the more casual moviegoers who used to come out in week 2 and beyond are now more content to wait for streaming, so most everything drops harder 

 

Air dropped 43% from opening to second Sat (off Wed opening), and found legs later, maybe NHF (-45%) and Asteriod (-49%) can do the same … if they can hold onto screens 

[ZattMurdock]

29 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Where the fuck do you live?

Portugal and actually despite how he memes shit, he isn’t the first from there I heard that the Portuguese moviegoing scene is dire. Thankfully it’s mostly not so bad here in Brazil… yet.

[tonytr87]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Both had an (albeit smaller) fan base for Wes Anderson and JLaw respectively, which boosted the OW. But the bigger issue is that the more casual moviegoers who used to come out in week 2 and beyond are now more content to wait for streaming, so most everything drops harder 

 

Air dropped 43% from opening to second Sat (off Wed opening), and found legs later, maybe NHF (-45%) and Asteriod (-49%) can do the same … if they can hold onto screens 

 

The only way to complete rebuilding theatrical is to divest somewhat from streaming, but studios seem unwilling to do that. Return to the 6-9 month window (and even then only make it available via digital rental) and the business will fully recover within a year. 

[21C]

20 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

RT verified audience covers not just North America afaik. There are people on RT that are movie buffs enthusiasts. As a Brazilian, the very concept of CS and PT is so weird to me. Do I really need to know what middle America thinks of idk Eternal Sunshine of Spotless Mind (B-)? Drive (C-)? As a box office enthusiast sure but are you seriously advocating that those are better metrics for a film quality wise? Because I find that idea baffling.

 CinemaScore and PostTrak is talked about in the context of domestic audience reception and domestic legs. 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, tonytr87 said:

 

The only way to complete rebuilding theatrical is to divest somewhat from streaming, but studios seem unwilling to do that. Return to the 6-9 month window (and even then only make it available via digital rental) and the business will fully recover within a year. 

They won’t be doing that. It’s not happening, despite god knows how many posts we see here on BOT thinking that the media streaming is doomed, it truly isn’t. The problem with the 6-9 month window is that COVID happened and that Disney+ strength is having their big guys three month tops.The movie theater experience as we knew it is dead, we will see No Way Homes, Avatars and Mavericks, but not as frequent as we once did until inflation catches up.

[CJohn]

9 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Portugal and actually despite how he memes shit, he isn’t the first from there I heard that the Portuguese moviegoing scene is dire. Thankfully it’s mostly not so bad here in Brazil… yet.

It is atrocious. I stopped taking my girlfriend with me because of how bad most main shows end up being.

[ThomasNicole]

24 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Idk the plot seems very similar to Mars Needs Mom

I don’t think the general idea of Mars Needs Moms is the problem of that movie tbh, it’s the execution that fails as comedy, drama, scifi and the whole things are not only painfully uninteresting but also ugly as hell (the designs on that movie is unbelievable) 

 

Elio looks cute, colorful and the director was the writer and co-director of Coco so it should be good

[JohnnyGossamer]

Tom Cruise and Oppenheimer and Barbie will inject some positivity back into here. 

 

I'm expecting outstanding weekday numbers. Looking forward to seeing the holds from last week to this week.

 

With hindsight, Fast X, Flash and Indy 5 underperforming makes sense. Last summer we had Gru and Thor right now. Right now, those are bigger properties by a lot than Fast X, Flash and Indy domestic. Just is what it is...

[tonytr87]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

Tom Cruise and Oppenheimer and Barbie will inject some positivity back into here. 

 

I'm expecting outstanding weekday numbers. Looking forward to seeing the holds from last week to this week.

 

With hindsight, Fast X, Flash and Indy 5 underperforming makes sense. Last summer we had Gru and Thor right now. Right now, those are bigger properties by a lot than Fast X, Flash and Indy domestic. Just is what it is...

 

The Flash was preceded by Justice League and other bad movies. Not to mention news of a reboot. 

Dial of Destiny was preceded by Crystal Skull.

Fast X was preceded by two bad movies.

 

Despite quite a bit of precedent, we underestimated how damaged these brands had become. Meanwhile Rise of the Beasts was preceded by Bumblebee and somehow, some way grossed more than Indy on opening weekend and has overperformed somewhat. 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, 21C said:

 CinemaScore and PostTrak is talked about in the context of domestic audience reception and domestic legs. 

We were talking on a more ample sense, not simply domestic audiences and domestic legs.

 

Even then, there is an argument to be had that CinemaScore is hardly more useful to gauge legs than the Verified Score. Super Mario Bros got an A. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 also got an A. Super Mario Bros has a 95% RT Verified Audience Score, Guardians, Vol. 3 and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse have both a 94% RT Verified Audience Score. I mean my favorite films of the year are a toss-up between GotG Vol. 3 and SM: ATSV, but it does make sense that Super Mario has a slightly better Verified Audience score than my favs because despite being quite leggy, aren’t as leggy as Super Mario Bros. Not sure what is your pet peeve with RT Verified Audience scores, but I’d also argue the following:

 

It’d unwise to use CinemaScore and PostTrak alone as predictors of domestic legs. Why? They paint an instant picture of the opening day reception. Not really that useful, and that could be applied not only to the film’s reception after its theatrical run.

 

Everything Everywhere All At Once didn’t even get a public CinemaScore released. It’s A24’s highest grossing film and it has a respectful 86% Verified Audience score.

[baumer]

I can't remember the last time I went to a theater and I didn't have to tell somebody to shut up at least once. Every time I go to a movie whether it's with 10 other people to see Boogeyman or 100 other people to see dial of Destiny, the lights from a phone go on persistently throughout the film. There's always a group of people talking about the movie or life or boyfriends or girlfriends all throughout the film.

 

I only go to the movies maybe 15-20 times a year now. And it happens every time. I live in the greater Toronto area in a pretty big city for Canadian standards but I don't think it matters if you go to theater in a big city or a small city. There's always morons who ruin the movie going experience.

 

So I concur with everything that @CJohn says.