July 5 & 6 Numbers Thread

[Eric the Minion]

17 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Rather than argue bigger bomb, we can just agree that Flash and Indy can be co-mega-bomb winners this summer.  

This is already feeling like such a tired conversation. Like does it matter which movie is the bigger bomb?

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

So right now it looks like three big Blockbusters of the summer season are spiderverse, mermaid and Guardians of the Galaxy 3. We're all going to make North 300 mil which is fantastic. We've got our fair share of bombs and plenty of movies that have disappointed. On the lower end I would say Boogeyman was a nice solid hit and probably no hard feelings will be considered one as well.

 

From what I gather Oppenheimer, Barbie and the cruise missile are three movies that could do gangbusters business. If you guys were forced to pick, which one of these films do you think will do the most domestically?

I think the big thing to note here though is that the three winners you mentioned would be an extremely poor top 3 in virtually any other summer ever admissions wise (obviously 20/21 don’t count). Not that I’m too worried about it yet, bc Barbie will definitely shake that up I’d say and MI might. Could still end up alright if those two can really be big.  

[filmlover]

Isn't almost every movie this summer destined to lose money due to costing so much lol. There isn't a studio without at least one big money loser this year.

 

At least we know one movie that's looking already guaranteed to turn a very nice profit.

 

[Truckasaurus]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

From what I gather Oppenheimer, Barbie and the cruise missile are three movies that could do gangbusters business. If you guys were forced to pick, which one of these films do you think will do the most domestically?

Definitely Barbie. All signs are pointing for a breakout at this moment. I expect Dead Reckoning to increase, like, 10-15% on Fallout and Oppenheimer to come a little under Dunkirk.

[MovieMan89]

I am ready to board 500m train for Barbie, and maybeee 1b ww. Let’s see reviews. 

[VanillaSkies]

50 minutes ago, baumer said:

So right now it looks like three big Blockbusters of the summer season are spiderverse, mermaid and Guardians of the Galaxy 3. We're all going to make North 300 mil which is fantastic. We've got our fair share of bombs and plenty of movies that have disappointed. On the lower end I would say Boogeyman was a nice solid hit and probably no hard feelings will be considered one as well.

 

From what I gather Oppenheimer, Barbie and the cruise missile are three movies that could do gangbusters business. If you guys were forced to pick, which one of these films do you think will do the most domestically?

At this point, I actually think it might be Barbie domestically. Worldwide of course is a completely different story.

[KGPatt2]

3 hours ago, Austin said:

 

 

 

Is...is that a real promotional shot for the movie? That is an absolutely awful Photoshop job if it is.

[Cmasterclay]

Insidious doing 25 mill and Haunted Mansion doing 35 mill, which the tracking thread indicates is fully possible, would be a nice bit of business to add to Oppenbarbie and MI.

[LegionWrex]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Insidious doing 25 mill and Haunted Mansion doing 35 mill, which the tracking thread indicates is fully possible, would be a nice bit of business to add to Oppenbarbie and MI.

I have Insidious at $30M at the moment. That series overperforms everytime so I'm bracing myself for a higher then expected opening.

[M37]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

So right now it looks like three big Blockbusters of the summer season are spiderverse, mermaid and Guardians of the Galaxy 3. We're all going to make North 300 mil which is fantastic. We've got our fair share of bombs and plenty of movies that have disappointed. On the lower end I would say Boogeyman was a nice solid hit and probably no hard feelings will be considered one as well.

 

From what I gather Oppenheimer, Barbie and the cruise missile are three movies that could do gangbusters business. If you guys were forced to pick, which one of these films do you think will do the most domestically?

Summer gross rankings
 

1. ATSV ~$375

2. GOTG3 ~$365

3. Barbie $330M+

4. Mermaid ~$300M

5. MI7 $200M+

Then a logjam in for 6-10 in middle $100s for: Indy, Elemental, Oppenheimer, Transformers, Fast X

 

Flash would be next at #11, maybe lower if something else (TMNT? Insidious?) can jump over it 

[Rocketracoon]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

So right now it looks like three big Blockbusters of the summer season are spiderverse, mermaid and Guardians of the Galaxy 3. We're all going to make North 300 mil which is fantastic. We've got our fair share of bombs and plenty of movies that have disappointed. On the lower end I would say Boogeyman was a nice solid hit and probably no hard feelings will be considered one as well.

 

From what I gather Oppenheimer, Barbie and the cruise missile are three movies that could do gangbusters business. If you guys were forced to pick, which one of these films do you think will do the most domestically?

 

Barbie is probably going to open the biggest of the 3 so unless WOM is awful and Oppenheimer or M17 have Amazing legs and WOM Barbie should make the most

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I am ready to board 500m train for Barbie, and maybeee 1b ww. Let’s see reviews. 

 

Mario was reviews-proof. Joker too. I don't think that Barbie needs raves to be well liked.

[abracadabra1998]

Tbh I'm just hyped for some box office wins:

- Mission Impossible is likely either close to matching or slightly surpassing Fallout. Despite its bloated budget, that's mostly due to covid reasons, it was highly impacted by it

- Oppenheimer doing Dunkirk domestic numbers, plus its international gross (probably much more DOM-centered than most Nolan movies, but that's the nature of the movie's topic), will be something like 350-400. Even if less, with a reported $100 M budget, it's a huge win for non-IP dramas

- Barbie gonna do gangbusters, the hype is there. Like someone said, feels like Mario, TGM kinda hype.

 

I'm just excited for some sunny headlines after the gloooooooooomy June ones.

[JohnnyGossamer]

30 minutes ago, Rocketracoon said:

 

Barbie is probably going to open the biggest of the 3 so unless WOM is awful and Oppenheimer or M17 have Amazing legs and WOM Barbie should make the most

I expect Mutant Mayhem to break out a bit and Meg 2 to do well enough... Maybe better than expectations too.

[MovieMan89]

28 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Mario was reviews-proof. Joker too. I don't think that Barbie needs raves to be well liked.

But to do my 500/1b high end I think it definitely does. Or at the very least, WOM has to be raves level. 

[MovieMan89]

Really not sure where I stand on Opp at this point. I think all the Barbie hype and this whole memey Barbie v Oppenheimer thing may actually translate to some real world interest for it. I also think a well over 3hr R rated historical biopic sounds like na insane ask to do big numbers, esp in summer. Nolan has not shown much huge box office power ever since the days of Interstellar either. And Indy/MI may have sucked up most of the target audience interest. Idk, great reviews and it might break out, otherwise I say prob not. 

[abracadabra1998]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Really not sure where I stand on Opp at this point. I think all the Barbie hype and this whole memey Barbie v Oppenheimer thing may actually translate to some real world interest for it. I also think a well over 3hr R rated historical biopic sounds like na insane ask to do big numbers, esp in summer. Nolan has not shown much huge box office power ever since the days of Interstellar either. And Indy/MI may have sucked up most of the target audience interest. Idk, great reviews and it might break out, otherwise I say prob not. 

 

Bruh... at the risk of sounding like a Nolan fanboy...

 

How has Nolan not shown huge box office power? Dunkirk, a WWI original movie with very few famous actors, made over 500 million (200 million more than much more critically acclaimed 1917, for example). Tenet made over 300 mil in the height of the pandemic, the only movie to really come out in those conditions to make serious money

 

I understand Oppy has drawbacks, but Nolan not being a box office draw is NOT one of them

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Bruh... at the risk of sounding like a Nolan fanboy...

 

How has Nolan not shown huge box office power? Dunkirk, a WWI original movie with very few famous actors, made over 500 million (200 million more than much more critically acclaimed 1917, for example). Tenet made over 300 mil in the height of the pandemic, the only movie to really come out in those conditions to make serious money

 

I understand Oppy has drawbacks, but Nolan not being a box office draw is NOT one of them

A war big budget epic doing great is hardly unprecedented. In fact, Dunkirk is a rather underwhelming performance compared to the biggest ones of those. Tenet was Inception-ish sci-fi thriller vibes, again much easier sell. Both I thought were pretty underwhelming results considering the brand name Nolan once commanded with the GA. Tenet hard to judge for covid as mentioned, but I don’t think there’s any way that movie was headed to peak Nolan WOM no matter what… 

Edited July 7, 2023 by MovieMan89

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

So right now it looks like three big Blockbusters of the summer season are spiderverse, mermaid and Guardians of the Galaxy 3. We're all going to make North 300 mil which is fantastic. We've got our fair share of bombs and plenty of movies that have disappointed. On the lower end I would say Boogeyman was a nice solid hit and probably no hard feelings will be considered one as well.

 

From what I gather Oppenheimer, Barbie and the cruise missile are three movies that could do gangbusters business. If you guys were forced to pick, which one of these films do you think will do the most domestically?

Personally I would love for it to be MI but those Barbie presales are a little hard to ignore. Would love for all 3 of them to do 200m+ . Would be great for and much happier to follow the box office. 

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Really not sure where I stand on Opp at this point. I think all the Barbie hype and this whole memey Barbie v Oppenheimer thing may actually translate to some real world interest for it. I also think a well over 3hr R rated historical biopic sounds like na insane ask to do big numbers, esp in summer. Nolan has not shown much huge box office power ever since the days of Interstellar either. And Indy/MI may have sucked up most of the target audience interest. Idk, great reviews and it might break out, otherwise I say prob not. 

This doesn't make any sense whatsoever. He's only put out two other films in the nearly 9 years since, the first of which actually made just as much (almost down to the dollar amount) domestically as Interstellar and the other saw its gross handicapped opening during the worst time ever to release a movie.