TOM CRUISE LOVES HIS POPCORN. MOVIES. POPCORN: THE WEEKEND THREAD | We are just waiting for Barbenheimer here

[baumer]

31 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I’m old, and I’m not pretending to have a pulse on what the youth wants, but experience with BOT and box office trends I’m pretty sure that this is some conclusion based on hot takes made on film and box office circles. Meaning, incorrect. 
 

There is no TikTok / Meme trend for Super Mario Bros, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Little Mermaid and Elemental. And yet arguably at least four of those performed extremely well at the box office, with The Little Mermaid I’d argue being a runaway success domestic which I imagine it’s doing insane numbers with ancillaries.

 

People keep saying this shit about memes and TikTok about Barbie and look, most of the people I see going crazy for Barbie are women from 25 years old onwards. Literally none of them have TikTok accounts. They are excited because Barbie was part of their lives, just like Super Mario Bros were part of people’s lives growing up, same could be said about Spidey, Guardians and TLM. 
 

It isn’t really that people want "new things", or that people are fatigued with Marvel, superhero films or Tom Cruise. It isn’t even that people are that picky, and you just need to look at Super Mario Bros for that. People want to see stuff they feel a personal attachment to it. It might be corny, but it’s not that hard to see the pattern.

 

Edit:

 

Also an addendum: I’m hyped for Barbie as a box office junkie, but I think people expecting to be the biggest film of the year next to Super Mario Bros are kinda setting themselves up for potential disappointment. It’s obviously breaking out, but I don’t think it’s guaranteed it’s topping ATSV domestic and Vol. 3 WW, let alone get close to SMB. It could happen, but let’s see where it goes.

 

 

 

[Algebra]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

No they haven’t, this has been the expected range since the Wednesday number came in, and anyone who says otherwise was holding out hope for an above average to outlier FSS path from that Wed that never panned out 

 

The reality is that is just difficult to move the needle, being in new viewers to a franchise that’s on its seventh installment, and named as part 1, implying that it can’t be taken as a stand-alone film with a clean resolution 

I get you but like why would the trajectory be up quite a bit for the 6th instalment and then remain flat for the 7th even though 6th was very well received and the star's on a hot streak?

Yeah the Part 1 had to have been a turnoff

Edited July 15, 2023 by Algebra

[WorkingonaName]

Without Oppenheimer I would predict $200m for Barbie. 

[baumer]

18 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:

I find it extremely impressive how the estimate rose 2.5M from Rth late night, must have gone crazy on Pacific AM shows

 

The extra 2.5 is the Early Access shows from the beginning of the week that are finally being added into the weekend gross. So it's not that it did anything crazy on the West coast it's just the money that was never added into the gross has finally been added.

 

This is as per Jat

 

[Algebra]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

The extra 2.5 is the Early Access shows from the beginning of the week that are finally being added into the weekend gross. So it's not that it did anything crazy on the West coast it's just the money that was never added into the gross has finally been added.

 

This is as per Jat

 

Pretty sure he knows

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:

Dude, it's likely to use a fair chunk of its theaters since Oppenheimer is a 3 hour film and I doubt people will drop MI for Oppy.

I have a very strong feeling - based on seeing trends like this before and people overreacting across the years - that Indiana Jones and MI7 will just keep going. Even with Barbie and Oppenheimer opening next week. It’s a harsher market, sure, and like I’ve said the real stress test is next weekend. But I think it’s doable. 

[M37]

Just now, Algebra said:

I get you but like why would the trajectory be up quite a bit for the 6th instalment and then remain flat for the 7th even though 6th was very well received and the star's on a hot streak?

The big difference was that Fallout brought in more women, and as like 37 people in this thread have informed me, the presence of Cavill was likely the cause and effect of that audience shift, with DR1 reverting back to the MI mean

[JustLurking]

Take one shot every time zatt tries to spin Indy5 as not a bomb

 

Actually don't do it I don't want anyone's death on my conscience

[Liiviig 1998]

12 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Because it’s a film that opened two weeks ago and the pattern of its dailies domestic show that there is still legs. It actually went up from Wed to Thur, just checked. Also because not all of us take box office for granted if they don’t make flashy numbers. A lot of people took Elemental and TLM for granted and they kept going. The real stress test for Indiana Jones is next weekend. Not this weekend.

Elemental and TLM were having small drops .

 

Indy dropped 50%+ both OS and Dom last weekend.

 

Probably dropping 50% Dom and think  it's definitely dropping that OS this due to MI7

 

Barbiehiemer is coming next weekend .

 

Sure it's legs ain't catastrophic but it opened small and legs ain't stellar as elemental,TLM  to leg anything beyond low 400s at best.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Liiviig 1998

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

 

 

Eh. EC has been wrong in the past too. I don’t want to overhype Barbie because I don’t think it’s fair with the film. Let’s see how it plays out first. If it tops $150m, even better. But I’d hate to see people freaking out negatively about this one next week again.

[M37]

2 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I have a very strong feeling - based on seeing trends like this before and people overreacting across the years - that Indiana Jones and MI7 will just keep going. Even with Barbie and Oppenheimer opening next week. It’s a harsher market, sure, and like I’ve said the real stress test is next weekend. But I think it’s doable. 

I think they're going to both crash pretty hard next weekend (less so than the other films except probably Elemental), but will retain enough locations that they will leg out fine after Barbenheimer into August, as there really isn't anything else coming out to pull in that older male audience

[Deathlife]

8 minutes ago, Movie nerd said:

MI7 underperforming? Karma for what Cruise and McQuarrie did and for certain decisions they made.

There's a reason this film is more divisive among longtime fans of the series than among critics or casual audience. 

What did they do?

[Algebra]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

The big difference was that Fallout brought in more women, and as like 37 people in this thread have informed me, the presence of Cavill was likely the cause and effect of that audience shift, with DR1 reverting back to the MI mean

I would've thought the presence of more women in key roles would've brought in women. 

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, Liiviig 1998 said:

Elemental and TLM were having small drops .

 

Indy dropped 50%+ both OS and Dom.

 

Probably dropping 50% Dom and think  it's definitely dropping that OS this due to MI7

 

Barbiehiemer is coming next weekend .

 

Sure it's legs ain't catastrophic but it opened small and legs ain't stellar as elemental,TLM  to leg anything beyond low 400s at best.

You know that the drops from a July 4th week are harsher, right? The drops of this weekend compared with the last one is where I’d start to pay more close attention. Also I’d argue that going up from Wed to Thur is a good sign. 

[M37]

Just now, Algebra said:

I would've thought the presence of more women in key roles would've brought in women. 

That was my argument, especially as Ferguson was coming off of Greatest Showman and Basset Black Panther, but I was repeatedly told otherwise (probably a bit of both tbh). But whatever spurred it, seems clear it was a one-off rather than a new baseline

[WorkingonaName]

3 minutes ago, Algebra said:

I would've thought the presence of more women in key roles would've brought in women. 

Arm guns -> Women. 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[filmlover]

I could honestly see not a single movie released in August making $50M+ total aside from TMNT and Meg 2. Staying power for everything that sticks around until then should be solid at least until sequel-heavy September arrives.

[M37]

2 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

You know that the drops from a July 4th week are harsher, right? The drops of this weekend compared with the last one is where I’d start to pay more close attention. Also I’d argue that going up from Wed to Thur is a good sign. 

Its far less of a good sign when the big movie opening came out on Tuesday rather than Thursday, which is what typically precipitates Wed to Thur drops, as shows are cut to make room for previews. Even NHF and Flash were up Wed to Thur, and that doesn't give me any hope for those legs moving forward

[Algebra]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

That was my argument, especially as Ferguson was coming off of Greatest Showman and Basset Black Panther, but I was repeatedly told otherwise (probably a bit of both tbh). But whatever spurred it, seems clear it was a one-off rather than a new baseline

Crazy how DR2 introduces Zendaya as Cavill's vengeful sister