C’MON BARBIE LET'S GO PARTY...AT LOS ALAMOS | BARBENHEIMER WEEKEND THREAD | We’re Thriving in our Plastic Fantastic Era | Mother Mothered with 162M | Daddy Exploded with 82.4M

[Nate]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

 

It will be hard to compare the daily numbers with Super Mario because of the release date difference. Mario's weekdays are deflated, while its weekends are probably inflated compared to any Late July release such as Barbie.

 

The other 4 movies are great comparison points, all of them released in Late July. So we have the low end with heavy frontloading in Deathly Hallows Part 2, and we have the higher end with stronger legs such as TDK. More likely scenario is probably in between, so maybe it will look more similar to TDKR or Lion King. 

Agree completely, I just added Mario for fun / because it will be interesting to see how close Barbie can get. Not a good day-day comp, but a fun one to track since Barbie will almost definitely land in the #2 spot for 2023, behind Mario. Now we just gotta see how close to Mario it can get. 
 

Also it’s a nice visual for the upper limit of Barbie’s potential total: Barbie would need 3.7ish multi to take out Mario- which is not impossible, but very unlikely - and so it does make for a nice upper limit.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

@Nate

 

 

 

 

I would void TDKR because that had a very unique situation where Aurora shooting hurt the boxoffice at least initially. So it didn't behave how it was supposed to behave.

 

the other 3 are good comparisons though HP boxoffice (380M) is too low. There's no sign that Barbie will collapse below 400M minimum. 

 

The first two Hunger Games movies had "A" quality WOM, huge openings above $150M, and both of them finished with a 2.7 multiplier. That type of multiplier for Barbie would mean a total around $420-430M. Could be a decent comparison point, though the release date makes it hard to compare on a daily basis. 

[Robertron]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I can so see this where a ton of casuals who saw Barbie will think 150m+ OW is unheard of. You should blow his mind by telling him it’s 200m+ from the record lol. 

His only real interest is because it’s Barbie.

 

I could send him AEG WW OW figures and the response would just be ‘cool’. 

[excel1]

6 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Talking about MI7, we should realize Barbenheimer is a $200M+ opener, like Star Wars, Avengers. Even those movies much bigger than MI can hardly survive from that strike. 

 

4 hours ago, DAJK said:

Nuts when you think about how Suicide Squad's opening is HIGHER than Barbie when you adjust for inflation. I think people forget what a chokehold that movie had on people in summer 2016.

 

Do people remember SS insane trailer views? Even after hideous reception to BvS, SS hype was epic. A better film and it does $150/400m domestic. 

 

4 hours ago, Chaz said:

I cannot fathom a 3-hour WWII drama grossing over $80 million in its opening weekend. What the fuuuuck. Over/under Inception domestically?

 

Americans wanted to see dat nuke. 😎

 

4 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

The opening is pretty hard to believe. But I also have a tough time believing the legs will be strong given the content of the movie. It’s definitely not a “fun” summer movie. That said, it seems to have a pretty good chance to reach $200M. Anything over that is just icing on the cake for Universal. 

 

Brah its going way over $200m be series

 

2 hours ago, Maggie said:

Casey mumble Aflleck is the best actor? He was the worst part of Oppenheimer. You really can't understand what he says. His diction is so bad

 

I thought it was the ghost of Vito Corleone for a second.

[ZattMurdock]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think you touched upon something that I've been trying to put into words probably a month now. To me End Game was the end of an era. It started in 2008 and then of course ended with endgame. Over the course of that time we invested ourselves in the MCU and the box office is the proof in the pudding. We invested our time, our energy and of course our money. It doesn't matter if some of the movies in the MCU in my opinion aren't that great. Most of them are and what Infinity wars and endgame did is something I don't think we're ever going to see again. Every MCU character was represented at least one of those two movies.

 

And then Disney and Marvel tell us wait, there's more and I don't think a lot of us have the energy to reinvest ourselves into new characters new stories and so on.

 

Obviously it was never going to happen where they just leave it alone after end game but in my opinion there was no better way to end the Marvel cinematic universe. I haven't been interested in any of the new Marvel movies and I haven't even been interested in any DCU movies.

 

We all gave the MCU and Disney 12 years of our lives. We invest in ourselves in dozens of characters that we all loved and seeing some of them die kind of just felt like that was the finality of it.

 

Now they want us to reinvest ourselves in new characters a new stories like I said and for me personally I just don't have it in me. I don't think the MCU is ever going to reach the heights that it did between 2008 and 2019. 

 

It kind of feels like as if you run the Boston marathon, you give it everything you have, you get over the finish line you're drenched and sweat your legs are exhausted your lungs are begging for air and yet when you finish it you feel a sense of accomplishment and a finale to the whole thing.

 

Then youre told that in a week's time you got to start a new 26 mile marathon. I just don't think you'd have it in you to give it your all this time.

 

I hope this doesn't come across as just one big giant incoherent ramble. I know what I'm trying to say and I just hope you get the gist of it.

It doesn’t come off as a ramble, it feels coherent to me and I can completely understand where both you and redfirebird are coming from. And this kinda links with my theory on the why Marvel, DC and Star Wars films are never going away, regardless how many of us ‘outgrew’ them:

 

At this point, Marvel, DC and Star Wars are playing a complete different game than they played during the 00s, let alone the 80s. And I’m not talking about shared universes, I’m talking about how these franchises are ever present in our lives with us barely doing anything to actually consume them: it’s on movie theaters, tv shows and comic book, yes, but they are also in blockbusters videogames, as skins to popular free to play games, as incredibly addictive mobile card games (hello there, Marvel Snap), it’s everywhere. What was once part of the nerd culture it’s now completely mainstream. 
 

While some of us might call this "superhero fatigue", I think the angle they are going here - and the reason I keep saying that "there is no superhero fatigue" - is that especially both Marvel, DC and Star Wars aren’t really in the business of keeping us as ‘costumers’, per se. They know that eventually most of us will outgrow this stuff. They are in the business of reaching out to a new audience. Basically, for every single one of us that gets tired of consuming superhero films, they get new people hooked in. That’s why we are getting an overexposure of this and while I agree with Iger that too much films and series together can be overwhelming, there is a method here. 
 

And then there are weirdos like me that just won’t outgrow of them, despite not enjoying everything equally. They are in the business of keeping that vibe that we got at Phantom Menace, The Avengers, The Force Awakens, Infinity War, Endgame and No Way Home constantly. For them, it doesn’t matter really if all of us stick around, if they have peaks and valleys with box office receipts as long as they bring new people in. 
 

My thoughts on  this is basically what Richard Newby just said hours ago:

 

 

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The first two Hunger Games movies had "A" quality WOM, huge openings above $150M, and both of them finished with a 2.7 multiplier. That type of multiplier for Barbie would mean a total around $420-430M. Could be a decent comparison point, though the release date makes it hard to compare on a daily basis. 

 

Yep Barbie isn't going under those numbers. Summer legs - strong weekday holds - will make sure of that.

[Nate]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

@Nate

 

 

 

 

I would void TDKR because that had a very unique situation where Aurora shooting hurt the boxoffice at least initially. So it didn't behave how it was supposed to behave.

 

the other 3 are good comparisons though HP boxoffice (380M) is too low. There's no sign that Barbie will collapse below 400M minimum. 

Yeah, Harry Potter is just there because it’s represents a likely “worst-case scenario” for Barbie (and has a very similar release date and opening weekend).
 

It would be extremely unlikely for Barbie to go below HP2 as it would take a 2.45 multi. BUT it is a nice visual for the lower limit of Barbie’s potential gross. 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Robertron said:

His only real interest is because it’s Barbie.

 

I could send him AEG WW OW figures and the response would just be ‘cool’. 

I just love when people who don’t know box office suddenly discuss box office lol. My favorite is how they think multis work. I’ve had many people I know randomly bring up a box office opening that caught their attention and think it meant the movie was headed to a total of like 10x that lmao

Edited July 23, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Valonqar]

Just now, Nate said:

Yeah, Harry Potter is just there because it’s represents a likely “worst-case scenario” for Barbie (and has a very similar release date and opening weekend).
 

It would be extremely unlikely for Barbie to go below HP2 as it would take a 2.45 multi. BUT it is a nice visual for the lower limit of Barbie’s potential gross. 

 

Agreed.

[Redolent]

Some bad takes on Gerwig’s impact on Barbie BO. No, she’s not a household name like Nolan, but the reason Gosling and the rest of the cast signed on is because of her, and the strength of her script. You think they would have attached themselves to a basic kids movie? So yes, her presence shaped the idea of Barbie as a quality, adult oriented film from the beginning.

 

 

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Valonqar said:

 

Yep Barbie isn't going under those numbers. Summer legs - strong weekday holds - will make sure of that.

 

You would think so, but DH2 also had the summer weekdays with a Late July opening and a staggering amount of frontloading. Can't be forgotten that Twilight & 50 Shades were extremely frontloaded. So that's 3 franchises with major frontloading where females are a huge portion of the audience. It's something we should not forget. I prefer to not be caught off-guard by that scenario. 

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Redolent said:

Some bad takes on Gerwig’s impact on Barbie BO. No, she’s not a household name like Nolan, but the reason Gosling and the rest of the cast signed on is because of her, and the strength of her script. You think they would have attached themselves to a basic kids movie? So yes, her presence shaped the idea of Barbie as a quality, adult oriented film from the beginning.

 

 

 

people mix opening power with added value. Very few have opening power but quite a few are added value especially as a team. neither Margot nor Goose can open a movie but they are added value as a team. Same goes for Cllian Murphy. Not a draw on his own but an added value. 

 

Gerwig is added value so yes her presence makes a difference though she wasn't the main reason to see the movie unlike Nolan with Oppie. But since Barbie has such a strong personal touch and is a mega hit, she's going to be an opener from now on. Like others said, this is her TDK. No one saw TDK for Nolan first and foremost but TDK made him a superstar so from that point on people went to see a Nolan movie.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Valonqar

[ringedmortality]

Gerwig being hot is what gave Barbie a boost imo

[MovieMan89]

Little Women and Lady Bird I think have quietly been putting in work over the years building Gerwig a notable following. The target demo for Barbie seems to love those movies from my experience, esp since Ronan and Chalamet also seem to have pretty huge fanbases among young females. 

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

You would think so, but DH2 also had the summer weekdays with a Late July opening and a staggering amount of frontloading. Can't be forgotten that Twilight & 50 Shades were extremely frontloaded. So that's 3 franchises with major frontloading where females are a huge portion of the audience. It's something we should not forget. I prefer to not be caught off-guard by that scenario. 

 

yes but there's one big difference. DH 2 was the 8th movie in the franchise. Curiosity was gone by that point and fandom formed. Who didn't care was not going to come and see.  Barbie is still a new thing and a watercooler success so people will try it out just to see what the hype is all about. It's like first Avatar in a way. That usually translates into very strong legs. Unlike fandom rush movies. 

[Redolent]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

people mix opening power with added value. Very few have opening power but quite a few are added value especially as a team. neither Margot nor Goose can open a movie but they are added value as a team. Same goes for Cllian Murphy. Not a draw on his own but an added value. 

 

Gerwig is added value so yes her presence makes a difference though she wasn't the main reason to see the movie unlike Nolan with Oppie. But since Barbie has such a strong personal touch and is a mega hit, she's going to be an opener from now on. Like others said, this is her TDK. No one saw TDK for Nolan first and foremost but TDK made him a superstar so from that point on people went to see a Nolan movie.

I kind of agree with this in terms of opening power, but I still think you understate the journey to how this movie became such a cultural behemoth over the last 4-8 weeks. For months and months it was fermenting away excitedly on film Twitter and other places, and again, Gerwig’s name was crucial to that. The memes and the pure enthusiasm originated there and finally spilled out into the mainstream. 

[MovieMan89]

At this point, it feels fairly safe to say Gerwig is going to be to female audiences what Nolan became to males in the 00s. Definitely very cool to see a director get name brand status again. 

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, Redolent said:

I kind of agree with this in terms of opening power, but I still think you understate the journey to how this movie became such a cultural behemoth over the last 4-8 weeks. For months and months it was fermenting away excitedly on film Twitter and other places, and again, Gerwig’s name was crucial to that. The memes and the pure enthusiasm originated there and finally spilled out into the mainstream. 

 

No I;m not. I'm actually trying to explain those who think Gerwig had nada to do with opening that she had a lot to do. She just wasn't #1 reason to see it with GA unlike Nolan because she wasn't a household name like him yet. But filmophiles were excited about Barbie becasue of her first. Now more than just movie buffs will be excited.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Valonqar

[excel1]

3 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

 

The subtlety of his physicality as he grabs the gun is incredible. It's the most memorable performance of the 2010s at the very least and it should have catapulted him to doing more and more prestigious work if it wasn't for unfortunate timing of things.

 

 

 

This is beyond sad and disturbing to watch. Affleck is shockingly effective in this scene. Gut wrenching is an absolutely overused terabit it fits here.

 

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

 

Gerwig isn't an opener name yet (will be after Barbie) but she is an added value. Means that her name distinguished Barbie from live action shit. Pretty much anyone who has heard of her knew that Barbie wasn't going to be yet another Disney remake or Smurfs/Turtles/other. 

 

When will people realize Gen Z googles everything before investing in it? They google Barbie, see actors the know and like, and see its from a HIGHLY respected up and coming creator = big win.

 

1 hour ago, TMP said:

Speaking of F4 and Oppenheimer, Josh Hartnett could be a legit great Reed Richards now that they lost Driver

 

No doubt but WB should lock him up for Harvey Dent or Clay Face first. 

 

21 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

I would void TDKR because that had a very unique situation where Aurora shooting hurt the boxoffice at least initially. So it didn't behave how it was supposed to behave.

 

Worst box office weekend ever and there will likely never be a worse one. What a horrific tragedy and epic buzzkill to what was the most hyped film since MATRIX RELOADED. TDKR would have set an attendance weekend record that would have lasted until END GAME if not for that psycho. 

 

11 minutes ago, Redolent said:

Some bad takes on Gerwig’s impact on Barbie BO. No, she’s not a household name like Nolan, but the reason Gosling and the rest of the cast signed on is because of her, and the strength of her script. You think they would have attached themselves to a basic kids movie? So yes, her presence shaped the idea of Barbie as a quality, adult oriented film from the beginning.

 

When will people realize Gen Z googles everything before investing in it? They google Barbie, see actors the know and like, and see its from a HIGHLY respected up and coming creator = big win.

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

yes but there's one big difference. DH 2 was the 8th movie in the franchise. Curiosity was gone by that point and fandom formed. Who didn't care was not going to come and see.  Barbie is still a new thing and a watercooler success so people will try it out just to see what the hype is all about. It's like first Avatar in a way. That usually translates into very strong legs. Unlike fandom rush movies. 

 

I mean 50 Shades, Twilight, & Hunger Games had a "brand new" movie that was pretty frontloaded right out of the gates. I think Hunger Games is probably a pretty good comparison point for Barbie. We'll have to see how it goes. There is a segment of the population that will have zero interest in watching the movie, no matter what. It's NOT like Avatar in that way.