C’MON BARBIE LET'S GO PARTY...AT LOS ALAMOS | BARBENHEIMER WEEKEND THREAD | We’re Thriving in our Plastic Fantastic Era | Mother Mothered with 162M | Daddy Exploded with 82.4M

[reddevil19]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

I really wish y'all would come around to using opening week rather than OW as the baseline for multis, as it mostly balances out numbers across seasons. Here's just a few of those that have been discussed in pages above for Barbie, as well as some post-pandemic big openings (average is about 2.0x)

• Wonder Woman = 2.79x (lol, not happening)
• GOTG3 = 2.36x (estimate)
• Mario = 2.25x (Wed opening, no previews)
• Minions = 2.25x (July 4th week)
• Dark Knight = 2.24
• ATSV = 2.24x (estimate)
• Hunger Games = 2.15x
• Little Mermaid = 2.06x (estimate)
• Dark Knight Rises = 1.99x
• Lion King = 1.98x
• Catching Fire = 1.91x (Thanksgiving week)
• Jurassic: Dominion = 1.97x
• Thor L&T = 1.83x

Probably looking at $160M+ OW and ~$210M first week. Really no reason to see it go below 400M (1.9x), and the Mermaid/Hunger Games range seems about right, so ~$430-$450M range, depending on where numbers land over the next week.

 

Also, put me in the camp of Oppy getting up to 3x+ level, only reached last summer by TGM and Elvis (~$110M --> $330M+)

Well, yeah, but then we wouldn't all be able to throw out guesses on legs before the Saturday figure is even out. Like...what would we even do then? Wait for numbers?

[Ororo Munroe]

Why are we back to 160M OW for Barbie? Did I miss an update? 

[M37]

Just now, Ororo Munroe said:

Why are we back to 160M OW for Barbie? Did I miss an update? 

No, just a lowball Sunday estimate (and an likely over performance) It’s going to come up a good amount with actuals tomorrow 

[MovieMan89]

16 minutes ago, Hildagarde25 said:

 

Eh, TLK is terrible, but Jungle Book, Cinderella, Aladdin, and Mermaid are all better than their animated counterparts. Only the animated BATB and TLK are genuinely great movies. People are way too hung on up on nostalgia/their childhood fixation with these stories.

 

I do like both versions of Lady and the Tramp equally. I love Bambi. Snow White is one of the worst things I've seen (personal opinion, sorry) so the live-action version has nowhere to go but up.  

 

 

A hot take, but I might be able to get on board a bit. I do think Cinderella is better and shockingly Aladdin might be better too, though both are great in their own way. TLM is kind of close too, it’s just too long in LA (but animated one is too short). Jungle Book is definitely better in animated form, live action loses the charm just like TLK. 
 

I started Lady and the Tramp and absolutely could not get very far, and the animated is a favorite for me.  

[vale9001]

As already discussed Barbie is not a romantic  movie for under 25 women. It's a pure and fun summer comedy. Legs will be very good.

The multiplier from previews, without wednesday, It's almost x8 (if 160M confirmed). So Its OW performance It's not in the likes of Twilight or 50 shades.

I see It touching 480-500M

Edited July 23, 2023 by vale9001

[M37]

2 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Well, yeah, but then we wouldn't all be able to throw out guesses on legs before the Saturday figure is even out. Like...what would we even do then? Wait for numbers?

I’ve given you a $20M final range after 2.5 days of estimated numbers 

 

[21C]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

So if Wonka's a hit it's purely because of IP and NOT because of the Paddington guy? So they might as well get Jon Watts/Muschietti types for everything? lol

Opening weekend will have absolutely nothing to do with the Paddington dude, the legs might but as a consequence of the quality of the film. That's my point. 

Edited July 23, 2023 by 21C

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

shockingly Aladdin might be better too

I'll get onboard with Aladdin being a decent movie and one of the better remakes, but...nah, man. Draw the line at it being superior to the original.

[ZattMurdock]

 

 

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, vale9001 said:

It's a pure and fun summer comedy.

Did we watch the same movie?

[MovieMan89]

Just now, reddevil19 said:

I'll get onboard with Aladdin being a decent movie and one of the better remakes, but...nah, man. Draw the line at it being superior to the original.

I go back and forth… the main thing stopping it is the god awful Jafar performance. And even though Will blew me away with the charm of his genie, you can’t really too Robin’s performance. In most other aspects though, LA wins. Especially in Aladdin and Jasmine’s characterizations. 

[redfirebird2008]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

I really wish y'all would come around to using opening week rather than OW as the baseline for multis, as it mostly balances out numbers across seasons. Here's just a few of those that have been discussed...

• Mario = 2.25x  (Wed opening, no previews)

 

 

 

I wasn't paying attention at all during Mario's run and I didn't realize it was a Wednesday opener until you just posted it. The way I've tried to balance out for those kind of movies is to take the Friday to Sunday total and average it with the 5-day total to get an idea of what it might do as a legit Friday opener.

 

So in Mario's case, that would be a $175M opening on a normal weekend...and a 3.3 multiplier overall. Much different than the 3.9 multiplier that it appears to be thanks to the opening Wednesday & Thursday numbers being excluded in the calculation. A 3.3 multiplier is still pretty awesome (TDK), but it's not quite the insane 3.9 multi that Mario appears to be on the surface.  

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

No, just a lowball Sunday estimate (and an likely over performance) It’s going to come up a good amount with actuals tomorrow 

 

YES YES bring 5M more or more yes please! 

[ZattMurdock]

 

 

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I go back and forth… the main thing stopping it is the god awful Jafar performance. And even though Will blew me away with the charm of his genie, you can’t really too Robin’s performance. In most other aspects though, LA wins. Especially in Aladdin and Jasmine’s characterizations. 

Williams' genie is iconic in the way very little else in any animated or live action Disney film is. And as you said Jafar is also fantastic. The bit of extra characterization for the Aladdin and Jasmine (mainly Jasmine) is a drop in the ocean compared to those two bonus points in favour of the animated version. 

[21C]

2 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

 

 

Which female-driven IP should studios go after next? 

[Ororo Munroe]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

No, just a lowball Sunday estimate (and an likely over performance) It’s going to come up a good amount with actuals tomorrow 

Ok. But is that based on how Sunday is looking or just a feeling? Lol I thought I might have missed an update that was posted.  

[redfirebird2008]

I would say the Aladdin remake is pretty solid. Same thing for Jungle Book. But no way in hell are they "better" than the animated versions. Can't go there at all. 

[TMP]

1 minute ago, 21C said:

Which female-driven IP should studios go after next? 

Captain Marvel 2

[Speedorito]

17 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

As of Greta, of course she is a draw. She isn't just a cinephile art-house darling. Would you call for instance Denis Villeneuve a draw? Because LITTLE WOMEN grossed as much as DUNE or any of Villeneuve's films domestically. Also LADYBIRD was a pretty well known film. I'm pretty sure that those who are a fan of Saoirse and/or Timothee know about Greta.

Here on BOT people know the names of a ton of directors, but the general audience does not know or particularly care who directs the movies. They care about the premise (or in most cases, the IP) and the actors.

 

Most people can probably name less than ten directors off the top of their heads. Think about your co-workers, your aunt, your neighbor, etc. Most of them don’t say “I want to see the new Greta Gerwig movie” or “I want to see the new Villeneuve” movie. That’s why a ton of commercials for movies say “From the director of…”

 

If someone can name a director who isn’t Nolan, Tarantino, Spielberg, or Scorsese then they’re probably ahead of the curve.