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Weekday numbers July 24-27

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6 minutes ago, Mango said:

$26m for Barbie seems huge. Down only 40% is pretty wild. So much for “female driven films are frontloaded”

 

Oppenheimer beating Inception’s hold is sublime. I imagine it could have taken a shot at TDK’s glorious Monday hold but the long runtime may have caused the latest shows to be a bit weaker, 3 hours is a lot for a Monday night.

 

Hoping for prolonged greatness from these movies. 
 

Barbie is a lock for $400m, hopefully it can clear $500m with ease too. Gonna get crazy and hope Oppenheimer has a shot at $350m. 

 

 

 

 

 

It will be over 300m (and probably over 350m) by the end of this weekend. I would shift everything up 100m. 500m is locked. 600m should be cleared with ease. 

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10 minutes ago, M37 said:

It’s a biopic in the same way that TGM was a military action flick, but turned into a “must-see” on the biggest screen possible viewing experience, made 3.5x its first week 

 

Also, Elvis as a biopic made over 3x it’s first week, and if Oppy does that, it’s got a shot at $400M domestic. I’m not going as high/leggy as those, because there was far more fan rush for Oppy, but 2.5x is my starting point

Elvis wasn't really hyped like this one and TGM was also "must-see" on the biggest screen because of the incredible flight sequences. I watched Oppie in IMAX and I wasn't blown away by its added-value. It's still an excellent film. 650-700M is no small number imo

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9 minutes ago, Reed121 said:

 

So does this make Black Panther the most impressive domestic run of the last 15-20 years?

The answer to that question will be entirely subjective, but I would lean towards TGM honestly. Black Panther at least had the cache of the MCU, where every film in the lead up to Infinity War/Endgame was basically a must-see, so the initial audience pool and so floor was much higher, maybe $300M. While Independence Day resurgence grossed barely $100M in 2016, and older while male skewing Indy in the same post-pandemic market isn't going to hit $200M

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I know some may be disappointed by come on, sub-40% Sun-Mon is simply too much to ask and believe to begin with. The capacity issue over the weekend will only make people pre-book their ticket in advance, and therefore less walk-ups throughout the day. 

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3 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

Avatar must be more impressive than BP.

 

Avatar is most impressive bar none cause it's an original property that had to build fandom from scratch and also used untested and previously not at all popular 3D to create a unique experience. 

 

BP not only had introduction in CW aka Avengers 2.5 but also featured heavily in IW marketing so its boxoffice wasn't a movie alone. We saw what happened with WF. Without Avengers boost it crumbled and just came and went. Not to take much away from BP boxoffice but an underdog and surprise it wasn't. Not even close. Marvel went all out to make it a huge success. They took no chances hence massive cross-promotion with IW.

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13 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

Avatar must be more impressive than BP.

Yes of course, but also Avatar was also 14 years ago. The question was about the last 10-15 years, after that magical run

Edited by M37
i can't math
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Just now, Valonqar said:

 

2023 - 2009 = 14. it was 14 years ago not 24. 

Math is hard (and will go edit now...)

 

I was answering post-Avatar, regardless of the time frame, because there's no question about that being #1

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10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Avatar is most impressive bar none cause it's an original property that had to build fandom from scratch and also used untested and previously not at all popular 3D to create a unique experience. 

 

BP not only had introduction in CW aka Avengers 2.5 but also featured heavily in IW marketing so its boxoffice wasn't a movie alone. We saw what happened with WF. Without Avengers boost it crumbled and just came and went. Not to take much away from BP boxoffice but an underdog and surprise it wasn't. Not even close. Marvel went all out to make it a huge success. They took no chances hence massive cross-promotion with IW.

Wakanda Forever is one of the toughest and most sad films of the superhero genre. It works almost as an wake for both T’Challa and Chadwick Boseman. It made to $859m WW with a film that is very hard to work with repeated viewings. I loved it but I’d say that it just didn’t warrant repeated viewings like the first Black Panther did, for very obvious reasons.

 

I’m not debating that Avatar is the most impressive film, btw. But saying that such an impossible film to follow up after the untimely death of its protagonist didn’t fly to the same heights of the original seems rather cruel and unfair. Eventually, a new T’Challa will rise as the Black Panther. That would be the much fair comparison with the first Black Panther.

Edited by ZattMurdock
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19 minutes ago, Mango said:

$26m for Barbie seems huge. Down only 40% is pretty wild. So much for “female driven films are frontloaded”

 

Oppenheimer beating Inception’s hold is sublime. I imagine it could have taken a shot at TDK’s glorious Monday hold but the long runtime may have caused the latest shows to be a bit weaker, 3 hours is a lot for a Monday night.

 

Hoping for prolonged greatness from these movies. 
 

Barbie is a lock for $400m, hopefully it can clear $500m with ease too. Gonna get crazy and hope Oppenheimer has a shot at $350m. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

More of a spillover effect for Barbie & TDK on Monday compared to Oppy, simply because Barbie & TDK had so much crazy demand on Sunday. So far Oppy is doing very well compared to Inception's daily percentages, which is great. It gained another $2.4M on Inception's daily gross as well. The longer this trend goes, it turns into a much stronger chance of reaching $300M. 

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Just now, M37 said:

Math is hard (and will go edit now...)

 

I was answering post-Avatar, regardless of the time frame, because there's no question about that being #1

 

even so, BP's cross-promotion with IW aka you need to see BP to understand IW (BS but you know) gave it a huge boost. So the movie didn't have an uphill battle since it was deliberately sandwiched between CW and IW to assure maximum exposure. TGM on the other hand was a nostaligia that could go either way (some nostalgia paid off some didn't) and had to rely on itself. No Avengers, no Barbenheimer even (though that's entirely different from Avengers and created after the hype for 2 movies took off on its own). Much more impressive than BP. 

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1 minute ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

Well...

I still don't expect it to make big numbers, we're talking a 63% jump off of a $200k daily, but it's something.

 

sometimes even 63% jump off 200K Ken be Kenough. It went up so I'll take it. behold the Jiminaissance! 

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5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

even so, BP's cross-promotion with IW aka you need to see BP to understand IW (BS but you know) gave it a huge boost. So the movie didn't have an uphill battle since it was deliberately sandwiched between CW and IW to assure maximum exposure. TGM on the other hand was a nostaligia that could go either way (some nostalgia paid off some didn't) and had to rely on itself. No Avengers, no Barbenheimer even (though that's entirely different from Avengers and created after the hype for 2 movies took off on its own). Much more impressive than BP. 

Black Panther is a cultural event. Wakanda is now much bigger than a simple mythological place in a superhero film and part of Black culture not just in the United States, but worldwide. It’s the utopia of the Black diaspora and has broken the bubble of genre films in ways that are completely unheard of. 
 

Underplaying that and saying that it was big thanks to the Avengers is some gross misunderstanding of why that film went as big as it did. If it held any merit, you’d see a similar boost to Ant-Man and the Wasp, and that never happened.

Edited by ZattMurdock
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