The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[upriser7]

42 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Bit surprised to see such a low number for Elemental considering it's holding up pretty well this week. 

[kayumanggi]

2 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

Bit surprised to see such a low number for Elemental considering it's holding up pretty well this week. 

 

Competes with THE HAUNTED MANSION, but I hope the drop is better than what boxoffice pro is predicting. Maybe 3.5M?

[Relevation]

1 minute ago, upriser7 said:

Bit surprised to see such a low number for Elemental considering it's holding up pretty well this week. 

Think the issue there is that Elemental is losing another 500 locations this week to Haunted Mansion and running into its first real family competition of its entire run. 48% is a bit much but I don’t think this’ll be in the single digits or anything. Maybe a 25% drop.

[kayumanggi]

 

[upriser7]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Competes with THE HAUNTED MANSION, but I hope the drop is better than what boxoffice pro is predicting. Maybe 3.5M?

I am hoping for something close to 4M which would be a 30% drop. We should get good clarity based on Thursday number. It's weekend number typically has been  5 x Thursday number.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

Without any irony, The Meg 2 could surprise (30-40M OW range) like the first one did, but probably on a smaller scale. Creature Features are more popular than many people assume i think and we didnt have one for quite a long time now. Plus, its definetly a very different movie compared to everything else playing right now.

I think you are backing the wrong horse here. I think Turtles 2 has a better chance of breaking out that week. 

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
181	3112	33428	9.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

390

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

54

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.584x) of TLM

~$6.01M THUR Previews

 

Adjusted down ~$5.01M

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-0

3:00pm Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
181	3483	33428	10.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

371

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.520x) of TLM

~$5.35M THUR Previews

 

Pretty bad finish, no way around it. Comps are pointing to $5M previews, but with Orlando over indexing maybe ~$4M

Edited July 27, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Talk To Me

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
36	339	5948	5.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

91

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.841x) of Boogeyman

~$925k THUR Previews

 

(1.367x) of The Blackening 

~$1.02M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $970k 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Talk To Me

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-0

Final Update 4:00PM

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
36	633	5948	10.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 3:30pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

294

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.373x) of Boogeyman

~$1.5M THUR Previews

 

(2.055x) of The Blackening 

~$1.54M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.52M

 

Excellent finish. Both comps are pointing to $1.5M previews, which should be enough for an OW in the teens

Edited July 27, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Brainbug]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think you are backing the wrong horse here. I think Turtles 2 has a better chance of breaking out that week. 

 

I legit forgot that TMNT opens next week as well and now its getting very good reviews on top of that. If it gets some steam going then Meg 2 could indeed be buried between Barbenheimer and TMNT.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I legit forgot that TMNT opens next week as well and now its getting very good reviews on top of that. If it gets some steam going then Meg 2 could indeed be buried between Barbenheimer and TMNT.

 

TMNT pulling a mini-RotB would not surprise me in the least.

 

If Barbenheimer wasn't a thing, TMNT going full RotB might have been in the cards.  Alas, almost certainly no room for it to do so in the current market.

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

TMNT pulling a mini-RotB would not surprise me in the least.

 

If Barbenheimer wasn't a thing, TMNT going full RotB might have been in the cards.  Alas, almost certainly no room for it to do so in the current market.

 

Sorry Porthos normally im good with acronyms, but what is RotB? 😄 It cant be Transformers Rise of the Beasts right? Or is it?

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Sorry Porthos normally im good with acronyms, but what is RotB? 😄 It cant be Transformers Rise of the Beasts right? Or is it?

 

Sure is.  👍 Rise of the Beasts kept growing and growing on projected previews, pretty much out of nowhere.  Ended up having a much stronger OW than initial forecasts made here, in some cases near doubling it (some folks were legitmately throwing out a 20s OW for RotB).

 

Some strong similarities between the properties as well.  Long legacy franchise with a stronger than expected critical reception (much more so Turtles than Transformers, but still) and general good word of mouth.  More to the point, a sense of "return to what the audience likes out of the property" was at play for Beasts and that could happen here with Turtles.

 

Not that I want to oversell the point as Barbenheimer makes everything, if not moot, then insanely hard to parse the data.  But, as a broadly similar point?  I think it works more than it doesn't.

 

EDIT:::

 

I want to stress when I say TMNT could be a mini-version of RotB, I really do mean "mini-" as Barbenheimer is just sucking all of the dollars (and attention) out of the room.  But I suppose I was saying I won't be surprised at @keysersoze123's mooted potential of a breakout happening/an increase in projected Tuesday numbers as we get closer to it; especially if it gets good WOM from those Sat screenings.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

How many "sneaks" and "early shows" does turtles 2 have. Its getting ridiculous !!!

[filmlover]

TMNT coming for the title of late summer critically-acclaimed hit that has legs through the fall! t has approximately zero competition until PAW Patrol 2.

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Link to previous post

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-0	Jax	5	41	84	381	4,336	8.79%
		Phx	6	35	84	319	5,196	6.14%
		Ral	8	39	85	301	4,330	6.95%
	Total		19	115	253	1,001	13,862	7.22%
Talk to Me	T-0	Jax	5	18	44	108	1,422	7.59%
		Phx	6	18	53	156	1,768	8.82%
		Ral	7	19	40	119	1,741	6.84%
	Total		18	55	137	383	4,931	7.77%

 

Switching to previews-only comps

 

Haunted Mansion (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .796x (2.71m)

 - Barbie (Thu) - .105x (2.23m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.72x (3.94m)

 - Nope - .505x (3.23m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .571x (2.84m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .343x (2.06m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.468x (3.96m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .559x (2.32m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.14m

New model forecast - 2.88m

 

Haunted Mansion pace chart:

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Haunted Mansion	101.41%	33.00%	22.22%	33.82%
Shazam 2	95.79%	19.31%	10.04%	51.08%
Barbie	73.13%	31.55%	36.95%	21.24%
Knock at the Cabin	117.75%	24.26%	22.66%	47.20%
Nope	142.84%	29.01%	18.79%	45.24%
Sonic 2	98.08%	31.75%	21.52%	25.21%
Fantastic Beasts 3	55.62%	30.37%	30.83%	17.83%
Jungle Cruise	185.36%	28.03%	29.07%	47.62%
Ghostbusters	95.85%			27.91%

 

True previews pace is much different than total with EA.  Somehow none of the comps were in the +30s for last day.  3-day close to Shazam, Sonic and Ghostbusters which makes sense.  Tracking below the horror (late walkups) so those comps will come down and better than the bigger movies (Barbie and FB3) so those will come up.  The EA shows were doing well, but since they are only AMC the gross won't be nearly as large as some others.  Current target is 2.8m previews + 200k EA.

 

Talk to Me T-0 comps

 - Black Phone - .567x (1.47m)

 - M3GAN - .628x (1.73m)

 - Renfield - 1.268x (1.08m)

 - X - 1.72x (756k)

 - Men - 2.536x (1.07m)

 - Antlers - 3.25x (1.2m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.27m

New model forecast - 1.57m!

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Talk to Me	275.49%	47.06%	42.59%	55.69%
Black Phone			26.67%	57.58%
M3GAN				82.63%
Smile				15.52%
X	248.44%			63.97%
Men	128.79%	59.09%		17.05%
Antlers	195.00%			61.64%

 

Pretty good day, in line with Black Phone, X and Antlers.  I saw some pretty low projections out there for OW, but I wouldn't be surprised if previews get to 1.1m.  There were 104+ early shows last night in AMC (the only one in my area had sold 14 tickets), so that will help a little too.  Hopefully a mini surprise.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	1-Hr	Jax	5	41	144	525	4,336	12.11%
		Phx	6	35	84	403	5,196	7.76%
		Ral	8	39	173	474	4,330	10.95%
	Total		19	115	401	1,402	13,862	10.11%
Talk to Me	1-Hr	Jax	5	18	118	226	1,422	15.89%
		Phx	6	18	37	193	1,768	10.92%
		Ral	7	19	105	224	1,741	12.87%
	Total		18	55	260	643	4,931	13.04%

 

Happy to get a couple movies off my plate.  Solid final day for both movies too!

 

Haunted Mansion (Thu) T-1 hr comps

 - Shazam 2 - missed

 - Barbie (Thu) - .123x (2.6m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - missed

 - Nope - .483x (3.09m)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .407x (2.44m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.272x (3.44m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .588x (2.44m)

All PG-13 movies - 2.84m

All 3pm preview movies - 2.79m

All movies - 2.98m

 

Size adjusted average - 3.01m

New model forecast - 3.03m

 

Haunted Mansion pace chart:

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Haunted Mansion	126.13%	38.71%	28.42%	40.06%
Shazam 2		23.36%	11.13%
Barbie	71.90%	37.12%	35.07%	19.93%
Knock at the Cabin		31.53%	25.18%
Nope	181.49%	39.15%	21.18%	46.42%
Sonic 2		37.22%	23.63%
Fantastic Beasts 3	60.53%			17.94%
Jungle Cruise	235.98%	45.43%	26.26%	61.58%
Ghostbusters	118.52%			33.04%

 

Better last day than Barbie (2.6m), FB3 (2.44m) and Ghostbusters (2.44m), a little under Nope (3.09m) and well under Jungle Cruise (3.44m).  I know Orlando is tracking well ahead of this, but my comps are pointing to right at 3m for true previews.  Looking for around 3.2m total

 

Talk to Me T-1 hr comps

 - Black Phone - .559x (1.45m)

 - M3GAN - .579x (1.59m)

 - Renfield - 1.766x (1.5m)

 - X - 1.875x (825k)

 - Men - 2.748x (1.16m)

 - Antlers - 3.38x (1.25m)

All horror movies - 1.57m

All R movies - 1.47m

All 4pm previews movies - 1.32m

All movies - 1.37m

 

Size adjusted average - 1.35m

New model forecast - 1.62m!

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Talk to Me	365.94%	46.38%	50.00%	67.89%
Black Phone	259.69%	50.94%	32.48%	70.27%
M3GAN	407.31%			82.13%
Renfield	128.93%			20.53%
X	285.39%			53.81%
Men	148.94%	63.83%		54.97%
Antlers	216.67%			61.02%

 

3-day pace is incredible.  I don't want to jinx it, but I think we're getting 1.45m tonight.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

How many "sneaks" and "early shows" does turtles 2 have. Its getting ridiculous !!!

Harkins 7/25 - 30 shows

Harkins 7/28 - 28 shows

Sneak preview 7/29 - ~700 shows

EA 7/31 - ~530 shows

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Harkins 7/25 - 30 shows

Harkins 7/28 - 28 shows

Sneak preview 7/29 - ~700 shows

EA 7/31 - ~530 shows

700 and 530 shows are huge. Harkins one is just a noise for BO though it could help build WOM. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

THE MEG 2: THE TRENCH

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	169	26294	0.64%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

63

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.134x) of Mi7

~$940k THUR Previews

 

(0.099x) of Fast X

~$744k THUR Previews

 

(0.106x) of RoTB

~$929k THUR Previews

 

Comp AVG: $871k

 

AMC Disney springs is still not up so that's a big chunk of data missing

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

THE MEG 2: THE TRENCH

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	197	26294	0.75%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

28

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.129x) of Mi7

~$903k THUR Previews

 

(0.111x) of Fast X

~$832k THUR Previews

 

(0.116x) of RoTB

~$1.02M THUR Previews

 

Comp AVG: $918k

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

GRAN TURISMO

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
107	161	18849	0.88%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-15

EA Wednesday = 239 sold (+22)

~$600k EA 

 

(0.113x) of Fast X

~$847k THUR Previews

 

~$1.44M total previews 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

GRAN TURISMO

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
107	164	18849	0.88%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-14

EA Wednesday = 259 sold (+20)

~$600k EA 

 

(0.114x) of Fast X

~$857k THUR Previews

 

(0.127x) of RoTB

~$1.12M THUR Previews

 

Comp AVG: $988k

 

With EA $1.58M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
203	846	36938	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

93

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	532	1756	30.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-6

*Without EA

 

(1.235x) of Elemental

~$2.96M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(0.464x) of RoTB

~$4.09M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

AVG: $3.52M TUE only + $1Mish EA = $4.52M+

 

Another day of increase

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
203	852	36938	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	554	1756	31.5%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

22

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-5

*Without EA

 

(1.170x) of Elemental

~$2.81M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(0.429x) of RoTB

~$3.77M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

AVG: $3.29M TUE only + $1Mish EA = $4.29M+