The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[M37]

30 minutes ago, vafrow said:

We have @Porthos with True Friday + previews potentially under $30M, and Deadline going $40-50M.

 

Place your bets people. I know which horse I'm backing.

 

 

Deadline will almost certainly be wrong, but I’m sticking with mid to high 30s, $35-$37M for TFri 

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Friday

192 Showings

12906

+784

25334

ATP:

22.14

0.588	Thor L&T Thurs T-1	17.06M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-1	25.19M
0.462	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-1	16.62M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-1	24.46M
0.383	NWH Thurs T-1	19.13M

 

T-2 Saturday

359 Showings

16799

+797

47502

ATP:

22.01

0.824	Thor L&T Fri T-2	33.40M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-2	49.95M
0.577	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-2	31.57M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-2	47.43M
0.526	NWH Fri T-2	37.87M

 

T-3 Sunday

323 Showings

13928

+779

42916

ATP:

21.93

0.732	Thor L&T Sat T-3	30.83M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-3	47.21M
0.460	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-3	26.59M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-3	41.08M
0.424	NWH Sat T-3	31.34M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Friday

194 Showings

13615

+709

25683

ATP:

22.14

0.508	Thor L&T Thurs T-0	14.72M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-0	21.75M
0.420	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	15.14M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-0	22.29M
0.351	NWH Thurs T-0	17.54M
	Adjusted NWH Thurs T-0	25.43M

 

T-1 Saturday

359 Showings

17820

+1021

47502

ATP:

22.04

0.716	Thor L&T Fri T-1	29.05M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-1	43.48M
0.547	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-1	29.92M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-1	45.01M
0.482	NWH Fri T-1	34.70M
	Adjusted NWH Fri T-1	52.05M

 

T-2 Sunday

323 Showings

14884

+956

42916

ATP:

21.99

0.657	Thor L&T Sat T-2	27.65M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-2	42.45M
0.443	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-2	25.61M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-2	39.67M
0.398	NWH Sat T-2	29.41M
	Adjusted NWH Sat T-2	44.11M

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Friday

218 Showings

12703

+1179

30253

13.53	Taylor Swift Thurs	37.88M
0.885	Barbie Thurs T-0	19.74M
	Adjusted Barbie Thurs T-0	28.62M

 

 

An oldie but a goodie...

 

CROSS OUT  TOP GUN AND PUT IN TET FRI

CROSS OUT DENVER AND PUT IN EMAGINE

 

(don't feel like remaking it 😉)

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2194

3939

55.70%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2255

3835

58.80%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
11690	383	34271	30.10%	13	240

 

1.547	Barbie T-1	34.49M
1.291	Thor L&T T-1	37.43M
0.912	Doctor Strange MoM T-1	32.85M
0.607	No Way Home T-1	30.34M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2262

3939

57.43%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2365

3834

61.68%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
12268	578	34376	35.69%	13	253

 

14.40	Taylor Swift Thursday	40.32M
1.190	Barbie T-0	26.53M
	Adjusted Barbie T-0	38.46M
1.003	Thor L&T T-0	29.08M
	Adjusted Thor L&T T-0	42.17M
0.798	Doctor Strange MoM T-0	28.75M
	Adjusted DS MoM T-0	41.68M
0.530	No Way Home T-0	26.49M
	Adjusted NWH T-0	38.41M

 

Just gonna focus on Denver here, Emagine and Drafthouse can already be outliers at times, and it certainly doesn't help that this movie is a very unique situation. Only thing I will say about those chains is that the comps dropped a ton again, unsurprisingly. Like everyone else I'm sure, I expect walkups to be very weak, so these comps should still be overshooting it. Chopping off 5M from each adjusted comp, and averaging those+the Taylor Swift comp I get 36.21M. Just guesswork really, but I'll go with it.

[keysersoze123]

While i am sure deadline is WRONG, its not comparable to yesterday. Comscore will have BO from all the presales so far and thursday previews will be rolled into it as well. So they are basing it on that rather than just a guess. Assume presales were just 25m, there is no way they will go for 50m. Even some normal blockbusters have done 1.6x or lower. Based on how this movie behaved yesterday, they must assume this is presales driven for sure considering its a fan driven movie with no interest from GA. 

[Taylor89]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its Joever for Eras making more than Joker. It has set new benchmarks are how bad final week of sales and walkups can go. 

 

Thanks. I still think it can reach 100m but we'll see.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Taylor89

[M37]

4 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

14.3x Eras Thursday = $40.1m

43 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

13.53 Taylor Swift Thurs 37.88M

25 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

14.40 Taylor Swift Thursday 40.32M

Add in OK's last update working out to ~$42.5M, and its looking like we may be getting some potential convergence.

 

However...

39 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Using Thursdays numbers as comps I get $24.17M *not adjusted for any ATP discrepancies* 

And (as discussed) Sacto is also likely to be coming in around if not below $30M in final update using Thursday's number

 

So there are still some market samples that are likely to drag down the total.  The $41M @Shawn reported (presuming that includes previews) seems to be in line with these data points

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Add in OK's last update working out to ~$42.5M, and its looking like we may be getting some potential convergence.

 

However...

And (as discussed) Sacto is also likely to be coming in around if not below $30M in final update using Thursday's number

 

So there are still some market samples that are likely to drag down the total.  The $41M @Shawn reported (presuming that includes previews) seems to be in line with these data points

 

ALREADY PREPARING MY CONE OF SHAME:

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/12/2023 at 3:47 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

189

1104

17.12%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

108

279

38.71%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1005	68	10793	9.74%	13	65

 

1.182	The Flash T-14	11.47M
0.644	AtSV T-14	11.18M

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

200

1104

18.12%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

114

279

40.86%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1062	57	10927	9.72%	13	66

 

1.184

The Flash T-13

11.48M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/12/2023 at 3:48 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-14 Thursday

94 Showings

3646

+151

11890

ATP:

15.88

1.656	The Flash T-14	16.06M
0.853	AtSV T-14	14.80M

 

T-15 Friday

112 Showings

3142

+181

14479

ATP:

14.94

2.139	The Flash T-15	31.66M
0.875	AtSV T-15	30.20M

 

T-16 Saturday

106 Showings

2076

+131

12844

ATP:

14.57

1.594	The Flash T-16	25.03M
0.551	AtSV T-16	20.61M

 

T-17 Sunday

97 Showings

928

+41

12034

ATP:

13.75

1.725	The Flash T-17	26.74M
0.449	AtSV T-17	14.04M

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-13 Thursday

95 Showings

3857

+211

12041

ATP:

15.75

1.679

The Flash T-13

16.29M

 

T-14 Friday

112 Showings

3300

+158

14479

ATP:

14.89

2.140

The Flash T-14

31.67M

 

T-15 Saturday

106 Showings

2223

+147

12844

ATP:

14.56

1.614

The Flash T-15

25.35M

 

T-16 Sunday

97 Showings

981

+53

12034

ATP:

13.67

1.694

The Flash T-16

26.26M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/12/2023 at 3:49 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-14 Thursday

86 Showings

1329

+45

11128

1.303	The Flash T-14	12.64M
1.137	AtSV T-14	19.72M

 

T-15 Friday

126 Showings

2944

+224

15737

5.050	The Flash T-15	74.74M
2.749	AtSV T-15	94.83M

 

T-16 Saturday

128 Showings

840

+73

16038

2.216	The Flash T-16	34.80M
1.714	AtSV T-16	64.11M

 

T-17 Sunday

118 Showings

221

+9

14794

1.426	The Flash T-17	22.10M
0.987	AtSV T-17	30.83M

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-13 Thursday

89 Showings

1416

+87

12114

1.341

The Flash T-13

13.01M

 

T-14 Friday

129 Showings

3189

+245

16910

5.262

The Flash T-14

77.88M

 

T-15 Saturday

131 Showings

968

+128

17201

2.355

The Flash T-15

36.98M

 

T-16 Sunday

121 Showings

259

+38

15953

1.480

The Flash T-16

22.94M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/12/2023 at 3:51 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

147

3221

4.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

119

2202

5.40%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
593	34	23416	2.53%	12	118

 

1.015

The Flash Day 3

9.85M

0.291	Ant-Man 3 Day 3	5.08M
0.711	Eternals Day 3	6.75M

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

147

3221

4.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

122

2202

5.54%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
615	22	23416	2.63%	12	118

 

0.946

The Flash Day 4

9.18M

0.684

Eternals Day 4

6.50M

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/12/2023 at 3:53 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-28 Thursday

168 Showings

2204

+229

25199

ATP:

17.45

1.346

The Flash Day 3

13.06M

0.313

Ant-Man 3 Day 3

5.48M

 

T-29 Friday

225 Showings

1520

+169

35187

ATP:

17.19

1.614

The Flash Day 3

23.88M

0.315

Ant-Man 3 Day 3

9.11M

 

T-30 Saturday

233 Showings

1304

+160

36215

ATP:

16.00

1.598

The Flash Day 3

25.09M

0.275

Ant-Man 3 Day 3

9.33M

 

T-31 Sunday

218 Showings

480

+76

33942

ATP:

14.98

1.416

The Flash Day 3

21.95M

0.283

Ant-Man 3 Day 3

7.30M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-27 Thursday

168 Showings

2358

+154

25199

ATP:

17.43

1.323

The Flash Day 4

12.84M

 

T-28 Friday

225 Showings

1676

+156

35187

ATP:

17.08

1.663

The Flash Day 4

24.61M

 

T-29 Saturday

233 Showings

1453

+149

36215

ATP:

16.03

1.631

The Flash Day 4

25.60M

 

T-30 Sunday

218 Showings

532

+52

33942

ATP:

15.07

1.466

The Flash Day 4

22.72M

[XXR vs XXR]

@Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/12/2023 at 3:54 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-28 Thursday

158 Showings

527

+62

25528

0.766

The Flash Day 3

7.43M

 

T-29 Friday

242 Showings

240

+39

39782

0.734

The Flash Day 3

10.86M

 

T-30 Saturday

246 Showings

188

+32

40185

0.825

The Flash Day 3

12.95M

 

T-31 Sunday

241 Showings

78

+22

39429

0.987

The Flash Day 3

15.30M

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-27 Thursday

158 Showings

593

+66

25532

0.764

The Flash Day 4

7.41M

 

T-28 Friday

242 Showings

258

+18

39782

0.694

The Flash Day 4

10.26M

 

T-29 Saturday

246 Showings

211

+23

40185

0.787

The Flash Day 4

12.36M

 

T-30 Sunday

241 Showings

92

+14

39429

0.929

The Flash Day 4

14.40M

[Hilts]

9 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-0	24	111	897	897	18,703	4.80%	-
MTC1	7	26		443	4,147	10.68%
MTC2	4	34		205	5,484	3.74%
MTC3	3	24		149	4,969	3.00%
Other	10	27		100	4,103	2.44%
Friday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	24	185	70	12,650	31,228	40.51%	0.56%
T-4	24	185	122	12,772	31,228	40.90%	0.96%
T-3	24	210	147	12,919	34,598	37.34%	1.15%
T-2	24	223	214	13,133	36,257	36.22%	1.66%
T-1	24	307	473	13,606	49,851	27.29%	3.60%
MTC1	7	106	+250	7,507	17,866	42.02%	3.44%
MTC2	4	62	+42	2,093	9,434	22.19%	2.05%
MTC3	3	56	+77	2,446	10,996	22.24%	3.25%
Other	10	83	+104	1,560	11,555	13.50%	7.14%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.376x	=	$29.04m	$43.56m
Oppenheimer				2.794x	=	$29.34m	$44.01m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.511x	=	$32.48m	$48.72m
T-1 Comp						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie (EA)				18.337x	=	$20.17m	$30.26m

 

*+50%

 

Just catching up the last few days has been entertaining to say the least! Been too busy this week to collate, analyse and post all the data but I have been capturing at my usual slot - wasn't about to let Taylor tear up my efforts for the last month... anyway finally got round to it, so here it is. Yesterday was ridiculously hectic lol, thank you very much Taylor for that.

 

So, unless my region is over-indexing (which is certainly possible since looking at the previous comparison charts, my data was at the upper bound with MTC1) I am seeing Thursday previews at ~$3m-$3.3m, without adjusting for ATP. Applying my usual +50% I could see $4.5m-$5m for Thursday, so personally I can see why Deadline went with that but I guess we will see shortly.

 

I can't remember who said now as I just skimmed through 100s of posts but yes this will help us nail down ATP difference and therefore Friday a bit better once Thursday is confirmed, despite all this being last minute and a real pain in the behind for fans and trackers alike.

 

Re Friday, there is some movement here. Big show count jump as we know. New sales mostly MTC1 now they announced the earlier shows since most were basically sold out there for some time. Good uptick at the smaller chains too.

 

My previous Saturday counts have been at quite a lower % of Friday than other trackers, ~60% last time I checked. Hopefully I can do a final count to round it off but let's say this improves to 65%.

 

But for now purely based off my numbers I would guess $4.5m Thu, $45.43m Fri, $29.53m Sat, $20.67m Sun

 

= and what do you know, it's $100m OW (+0.13 for you Swifties out there 😉)

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-0	24	111	897	897	18,703	4.80%	-
MTC1	7	26		443	4,147	10.68%
MTC2	4	34		205	5,484	3.74%
MTC3	3	24		149	4,969	3.00%
Other	10	27		100	4,103	2.44%
Friday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-4	24	185	122	12,772	31,228	40.90%	0.96%
T-3	24	210	147	12,919	34,598	37.34%	1.15%
T-2	24	223	214	13,133	36,257	36.22%	1.66%
T-1	24	307	473	13,606	49,851	27.29%	3.60%
T-0	24	307	738	14,344	49,851	28.77%	5.42%
MTC1	7	106	+284	7,791	17,866	43.61%	3.78%
MTC2	4	62	+47	2,140	9,434	22.68%	2.25%
MTC3	3	56	+194	2,640	10,996	24.01%	7.93%
Other	10	83	+213	1,773	11,555	15.34%	13.65%
T-0 Comps						Raw	ATP adj*
Barbie				1.450x	=	$30.61m	$45.92m
Oppenheimer				2.946x	=	$30.93m	$46.40m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny				4.756x	=	$34.24m	$51.36m
Barbie (EA only)				19.176x	=	$21.09m	$31.64m

 

Final update here we go. Hopefully can still get to $40m+ Fri. I will try to pull Saturday early tomorrow.

 

Also it's basically 16x Thurs which is $44.775m Fri

Edited October 13, 2023 by Hilts
Added Thurs comp

[Shawn Robbins]

For giggles, I took a look at some Nashville data since I'm based there (and since it's ground zero for Taylor).

 

Needless to say, the numbers are bonkers and 99.9% likely to be a massive outlier. With ATPs, TET is about... **eyes wander aimlessly trying to comprehend the gap** ... about 120-150% ahead of Little Mermaid. 🤣

 

(Shout out to @Porthos for the inspiration behind that italicized inner monologue.)

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

@Porthos

 

JUST SETS THE STAGE FOR THE COMEBACK TOUR ON FNAF!!!!! 👍 

[TwoMisfits]

So, 2nd Cinemark (PLF) FINALLY set for Wish...and I guess they did watch presales at the 1st for a few hours b/c it got set for ONE screen and NO PLF...5 showings - that's it.

 

Now, that is a set from the animation bombs of the summer...so maybe don't get too excited for good results yet...

[M37]

Just a quick temperature check ...

 

What would y'all say is the current appropriate betting line on FNAF previews only vs Marvels? Like +$5 million (say $7 vs $12)? +$6M? More??? Or less?