The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday will be big and saturday should be close to friday. Slightly up from friday most probably. I just looked at friday and there is nothing about it that screams big either. 

 

The Wish MTC1 Friday - 3241/427607 43289.49 2580 shows

 

Less than Tuesday number from yesterday. I think this will bloom only close to release. 

Oh I realise MiniTC2 dont do Tuesday discount so it will underindex

[YM!]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday will be big and saturday should be close to friday. Slightly up from friday most probably. I just looked at friday and there is nothing about it that screams big either. 

 

The Wish MTC1 Friday - 3241/427607 43289.49 2580 shows

 

Less than Tuesday number from yesterday. I think this will bloom only close to release. 

What about Wedneaday?

[Eric the Minion]

https://www.fandango.com/movie-news/fandangos-2023-most-anticipated-holiday-movies-survey-reveals-what-fans-are-most-excited-to-see-in-theaters-754958?cmp=SocialOrganic~Fandango~MostAnticipated2023

 

 

Always gotta take these with a grain of salt, but these are still interesting to read.

[Porthos]

For people curious, Songbird tickets have not gone on sale yet.  @misterpepp might have more info on what's going if it is a later time today or if Lionsgate decided on 11/1 after all.

 

Curiously enough, none of the local Cinemarks have showtimes up yet, which is "Hmmm...".  Probably nothing, but still interesting.

Edited October 31, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, YM! said:

What about Wedneaday?

Weak last time I checked. At this point Tuesday has the highest sales but current pace is slightly better for saturday early shows. Rest are just ambling along. This is not a movie to sell tons of tickets 3 weeks before release. Let us revisit this close to release and see where it will land. 

[Giorno]

@M37if the marvels has the same last week growth (% wise) that gotg 3 did then what kind of previews would we be looking at?

[vafrow]

3 minutes ago, Eric Presley said:

https://www.fandango.com/movie-news/fandangos-2023-most-anticipated-holiday-movies-survey-reveals-what-fans-are-most-excited-to-see-in-theaters-754958?cmp=SocialOrganic~Fandango~MostAnticipated2023

 

 

Always gotta take these with a grain of salt, but these are still interesting to read.

Wonka ahead of Hunger Games seems significant to me. Both are in the "kinda related to other films you like camp". Hunger Games, being more action oriented, and releasing sooner, generally should give it an advantage on a poll like this. Wonka being ahead likely bodes well for it's awareness this far out.

 

As for the two comic book films, they usually fare well in these polls, with ATSV and Flash being first and third in the summer version (GOTG3 was excluded), so I don't read too much into that. Especially since Marvels isn't seeing any benefit.

 

Also, I'm surprised Trolls 3 didn't make the list. Animated is always tough, but this should have a built in audience.

 

[Grand Cine]

22 minutes ago, Eric Presley said:

https://www.fandango.com/movie-news/fandangos-2023-most-anticipated-holiday-movies-survey-reveals-what-fans-are-most-excited-to-see-in-theaters-754958?cmp=SocialOrganic~Fandango~MostAnticipated2023

 

 

Always gotta take these with a grain of salt, but these are still interesting to read.

Yeah they don't have Trolls 3 , Migration or Renaissance to make the top 10 , i think only 6 or 7 of this movies will make the top 10 really 

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Wonka ahead of Hunger Games seems significant to me. Both are in the "kinda related to other films you like camp". Hunger Games, being more action oriented, and releasing sooner, generally should give it an advantage on a poll like this. Wonka being ahead likely bodes well for it's awareness this far out.

 

As for the two comic book films, they usually fare well in these polls, with ATSV and Flash being first and third in the summer version (GOTG3 was excluded), so I don't read too much into that. Especially since Marvels isn't seeing any benefit.

 

Also, I'm surprised Trolls 3 didn't make the list. Animated is always tough, but this should have a built in audience.

 

Trolls and Wish’s demographics likely don't vote in these polls lol.

[Bob Train]

19 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Wonka ahead of Hunger Games seems significant to me. Both are in the "kinda related to other films you like camp". Hunger Games, being more action oriented, and releasing sooner, generally should give it an advantage on a poll like this. Wonka being ahead likely bodes well for it's awareness this far out.

 

As for the two comic book films, they usually fare well in these polls, with ATSV and Flash being first and third in the summer version (GOTG3 was excluded), so I don't read too much into that. Especially since Marvels isn't seeing any benefit.

 

Also, I'm surprised Trolls 3 didn't make the list. Animated is always tough, but this should have a built in audience.

 

Here is the Summer 2023 one. My advice is to take it with a grain of salt. All metrics have pros and cons but this one doesn't seem very reputable.

Edited October 31, 2023 by Bob Train

[Grand Cine]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Weak last time I checked. At this point Tuesday has the highest sales but current pace is slightly better for saturday early shows. Rest are just ambling along. This is not a movie to sell tons of tickets 3 weeks before release. Let us revisit this close to release and see where it will land. 

The two next checkpoint to compare to Elemental are Thursday and at T-11 so in next friday ( OD of The Marvels)

[ZeroHour]

5 minutes ago, YM! said:

Trolls and Wish’s demographics likely don't vote in these polls lol.

My three year old waits all year to participate in the Fandango Holiday Fan Picks poll!

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Grand Cine said:

The two next checkpoint to compare to Elemental are Thursday and at T-11 so in next friday ( OD of The Marvels)

it does not  matter that much when sales are low. If both movie sales are at very low, relative comps would skew big time. Plus these movies are driven by sales in final week plus walkups. I will try to get the numbers but cannot guarantee as its pain these days. 

[vafrow]

14 minutes ago, YM! said:

Trolls and Wish’s demographics likely don't vote in these polls lol.

 

Trolls is aiming in part for an older crowd with the nostalgia factor with the N'SYNC reunion and just the general pop soundtrack. I don't think it's going to do huge here, but, it's absence from this poll (which is already a pretty light slate of films) is significant in my view.

 

I don't throw a lot of weight to these polls, but it does give us a data point. In the summer, the low performance of Indy was probably the first big warning signal that it was headed for trouble for example.

Edited October 31, 2023 by vafrow

[keysersoze123]

Fandango list is generally useless as confirmed by Summer list. That said Trolls completely missing from the list is weird. its opening in 2 weeks as well. 

[Grand Cine]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

it does not  matter that much when sales are low. If both movie sales are at very low, relative comps would skew big time. Plus these movies are driven by sales in final week plus walkups. I will try to get the numbers but cannot guarantee as its pain these days. 

Yeah don't worry I understand , especially that there are other things before like the final tracking of The Marvels and tomorrow he will have the beginning of Hunger Games . Moreover , next week , he has in the same time , The Marvels , Hunger Games , Wish , Trolls , the beginning of tracking for Napoleon, and i think The Color People , You, the trackers , have a lot of movies to track , but you couldn't make all of them in the same time , the priority will be The Marvels and Hunger Games . Looks like it’s June when all the movies were in presale

[el sid]

Thanksgiving, counted today for Thursday, November 16. 16 days left.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 21 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 3 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 1 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 1 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 24 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 29 (2 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 82.

Comps (all four films counted after ca. 24hs on sale and for Thursday): M3gan had 57 sold tickets,
Beast had 53,
The Exorcist: Believer had 171 (and after 1 ½ day it had 268)

and The Black Phone had 95 sold tickets.
Insidious: The Red Door had with 8 days left 153 sold tickets.

So a pretty good start in my theaters.

Edited October 31, 2023 by el sid

[Boxofficerules]

M3gan feels like the best comp for Thanksgiving as they're both original movies. I know Thanksgiving is technically based on a trailer but who knows that?

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

For people curious, Songbird tickets have not gone on sale yet.  @misterpepp might have more info on what's going if it is a later time today or if Lionsgate decided on 11/1 after all.

 

Curiously enough, none of the local Cinemarks have showtimes up yet, which is "Hmmm...".  Probably nothing, but still interesting.

 

They did go on sale briefly at one major theater chain (my guy says it was ~3 hours they were available for), but they have since pulled them, perhaps because it was an error. Nov 1 it is, then.

 

Part of why I try not to stick my flag on a particular day when there are conflicting dates is because stuff like this happens every now and then. One chain won't get the memo and will put tickets on sale earlier than others, in other cases some theaters are still working out arrangements and won't have them on sale until later than others, and then sometimes the studios will just cancel/delay the date outright (Sony😒).

 

The Hunger Games date was an "or" situation, it was gonna be the 31st or the 1st. To be honest, I came across some info that seemed to imply the latter was more likely than the former, but that major chain I mentioned earlier seemed like it was still sticking to their guns that tickets would go on sale today even up until the last minute (In fact, after the last minute). This is why I tend to reply to my previous posts when adding an "additional possible date" if I'm not absolutely positive the date has officially changed.

Edited October 31, 2023 by misterpepp

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, misterpepp said:

 

They did go on sale briefly at one major theater chain, but they have since pulled them, perhaps because it was an error. Nov 1 it is, then.

 

Part of why I try not to stick my flag on a particular day when there are conflicting dates is because stuff like this happens every now and then. One chain won't get the memo and will put tickets on sale earlier than others, in other cases some theaters are still working out arrangements and won't have them on sale until later than others, and then sometimes the studios will just cancel/delay the date outright (Sony😒).

 

The Hunger Games date was an "or" situation, it was gonna be the 31st or the 1st. To be honest, I came across some info that seemed to imply the latter was more likely than the former, but that major chain I mentioned earlier seemed like it was still sticking to their guns that tickets would go on sale today even up until the last minute. This is why I tend to reply to my previous posts when adding an "additional possible date" if I'm not absolutely positive the date has officially changed.

 

Thanks for the peek behind the curtain!  

 

SAG-AFTRA deal might have thrown a minor wrench in things as well if they want to throw something together at the last second.  Unlikely anything does come together, but I could see Lionsgate giving a bit of a pause or dithering at the last second in seeing if they could put something together.

 

All in all though, likely it was Nov 1st all along as you said.  Thanks again.